2025
Week 1 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Texans offensevsRams defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Texans, 20 for Rams. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Rams won 14–9; their low point was 37% at Q2 6:20. The game turned for good at Q3 14:33: M.Stafford pass short middle to D.Adams to LA 44 for 15 yards (D.Stingley) (48% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:51, 31 points for the Rams.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:51HOUC.Stroud pass short right to D.Ogunbowale to LA 18 for 7 yards (N.Landman). FUMBLES (N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-B.Fiske at LA 24.64% → 95%
- 2Q2 0:57LAK.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.47% → 63%
- 3Q4 4:17LAM.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to C.Parkinson (A.Al-Shaair). Houston challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED.…6% → 19%
- 4Q2 11:22HOUT.Townsend punts 54 yards to LA 25, fair catch by X.Smith.41% → 52%
- 5Q4 2:04HOUC.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to J.Noel (K.Kinchens). PENALTY on LA-K.Turner, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 44 - No Play.19% → 30%
- ★Q3 14:33LAM.Stafford pass short middle to D.Adams to LA 44 for 15 yards (D.Stingley).turning point48% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Watson led the Texans at +2.8 EPA (2 catches for 27). P.Nacua led the Rams at +8.6 EPA (10 catches for 130).
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 19/27 | 188 | 1 | 3 | -4.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Chubb51% | 13 | 48% | 60 | -0.5 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 5 | 19% | 32 | +5.6 | |
| D.Pierce11% | 3 | 11% | 5 | -1.9 | |
| W.Marks11% | 3 | 11% | 3 | -1.6 | |
| D.Ogunbowale27% | 2 | 7% | 9 | -1.1 | |
| X.Hutchinson68% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Schultz54% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 28 | +1.6 | |
| N.Collins84% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 25 | +0.4 | |
| C.Stover57% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 22 | +0.2 | |
| J.Higgins43% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 32 | -2.7 | |
| D.Ogunbowale27% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 17 | -4.1 | |
| J.Watson56% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 27 | +2.8 | |
| X.Hutchinson68% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 30 | +1.5 | |
| J.Noel27% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 7 | -0.7 | |
| N.Chubb51% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| D.Pierce11% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense F.Fatukasi 1 sack, H.To'oTo'o 1 sack, W.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 3/3 FG (long 53)
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 21/29 | 245 | 1 | 3 | +6.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams82% | 18 | 72% | 66 | 1 | +0.8 |
| M.Stafford100% | 4 | 16% | -2 | -6.2 | |
| P.Nacua63% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.9 | |
| B.Corum17% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.5 | |
| J.Whittington50% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua63% | 11 | 39% | 10 | 130 | +9.5 | |
| D.Adams90% | 8 | 29% | 4 | 51 | +3.8 | |
| C.Parkinson48% | 2 | 7% | 2 | -6 | -6.2 | |
| K.Williams82% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 3 | -1.1 | |
| D.Allen37% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 13 | 1 | +0.7 |
| T.Atwell42% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.2 | |
| X.Smith3% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 36 | +2.7 | |
| B.Corum17% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 14 | +0.3 |
Defense C.Durant 1 INT, B.Young 1 sack, T.Davis 1 sack, J.McCollough 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Rams give up 159 yards a game to wide receivers (25th), against a league average of 140. Texans' wide receivers produce 160 (8th).
Deep middle is open
Rams are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.60 EPA per attempt. Texans send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Texans' run game is 30th in EPA per carry (-0.11). Rams allow -0.09 (7th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Texans gain 5.1 yards per play (25th). Rams give up 5.3 (14th), with the league at 5.4.
The Rams lead the series 5–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 1 | HOU 9 at LA 14 |
| 2021 · Wk 8 | LA 38 at HOU 22 |
| 2017 · Wk 10 | HOU 7 at LA 33 |
| 2013 · Wk 6 | LA 38 at HOU 13 |
| 2009 · Wk 15 | HOU 16 at LA 13 |
2025 records
| Texans | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 12–5 |
| Division | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 7–2 | 7–1 |
| Away | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WWLLW |
| Streak | Won 9 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 23.8 – 17.4 | 30.5 – 20.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Texans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | HOU off | Favors HOU · Favors LA | LA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#24 | -0.05#11 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 41%#28 | 43%#12 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#25 | 5.3#14 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#25 | 8%#9 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#16 | -0.05#11 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#9 | 7%#15 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#30 | -0.09#7 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#28 | 4.0#11 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#18 | 38%#10 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 46%#30 | 57%#13 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#8 | 159#25 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#16 | 45#7 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.7#11 | 7.5#19 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#29 | 39#26 | 32 | |
Texans: EPA per throw
Rams: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.