2025
Week 1 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Rams offensevsTexans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Rams, 19 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Rams won 14–9; their low point was 37% at Q2 6:20. The game turned for good at Q3 14:33: M.Stafford pass short middle to D.Adams to LA 44 for 15 yards (D.Stingley) (48% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:51, 31 points for the Rams.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:51LAC.Stroud pass short right to D.Ogunbowale to LA 18 for 7 yards (N.Landman). FUMBLES (N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-B.Fiske at LA 24.64% → 95%
- 2Q2 0:57LAK.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.47% → 63%
- 3Q4 4:17HOUM.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to C.Parkinson (A.Al-Shaair). Houston challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED.…6% → 19%
- 4Q2 11:22HOUT.Townsend punts 54 yards to LA 25, fair catch by X.Smith.41% → 52%
- 5Q4 2:04HOUC.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to J.Noel (K.Kinchens). PENALTY on LA-K.Turner, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 44 - No Play.19% → 30%
- ★Q3 14:33LAM.Stafford pass short middle to D.Adams to LA 44 for 15 yards (D.Stingley).turning point48% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Watson led the Texans at +2.8 EPA (2 catches for 27). P.Nacua led the Rams at +8.6 EPA (10 catches for 130).
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 19/27 | 188 | 1 | 3 | -4.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Chubb51% | 13 | 48% | 60 | -0.5 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 5 | 19% | 32 | +5.6 | |
| D.Pierce11% | 3 | 11% | 5 | -1.9 | |
| W.Marks11% | 3 | 11% | 3 | -1.6 | |
| D.Ogunbowale27% | 2 | 7% | 9 | -1.1 | |
| X.Hutchinson68% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Schultz54% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 28 | +1.6 | |
| N.Collins84% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 25 | +0.4 | |
| C.Stover57% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 22 | +0.2 | |
| J.Higgins43% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 32 | -2.7 | |
| D.Ogunbowale27% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 17 | -4.1 | |
| J.Watson56% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 27 | +2.8 | |
| X.Hutchinson68% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 30 | +1.5 | |
| J.Noel27% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 7 | -0.7 | |
| N.Chubb51% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| D.Pierce11% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense F.Fatukasi 1 sack, H.To'oTo'o 1 sack, W.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 3/3 FG (long 53)
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 21/29 | 245 | 1 | 3 | +6.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams82% | 18 | 72% | 66 | 1 | +0.8 |
| M.Stafford100% | 4 | 16% | -2 | -6.2 | |
| P.Nacua63% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.9 | |
| B.Corum17% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.5 | |
| J.Whittington50% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua63% | 11 | 39% | 10 | 130 | +9.5 | |
| D.Adams90% | 8 | 29% | 4 | 51 | +3.8 | |
| C.Parkinson48% | 2 | 7% | 2 | -6 | -6.2 | |
| K.Williams82% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 3 | -1.1 | |
| D.Allen37% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 13 | 1 | +0.7 |
| T.Atwell42% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.2 | |
| X.Smith3% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 36 | +2.7 | |
| B.Corum17% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 14 | +0.3 |
Defense C.Durant 1 INT, B.Young 1 sack, T.Davis 1 sack, J.McCollough 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Rams score a touchdown on 65% of red zone trips (7th). Texans allow 60% (21st).
Deep left is open
Texans are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.68 EPA per attempt. Rams send 10% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Texans
Rams convert 39% of third downs (21st). Texans allow 36% (6th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Rams average +0.14 EPA per play (1st). Texans allow -0.16 (1st). League average is +0.01.
The Rams lead the series 5–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 1 | HOU 9 at LA 14 |
| 2021 · Wk 8 | LA 38 at HOU 22 |
| 2017 · Wk 10 | HOU 7 at LA 33 |
| 2013 · Wk 6 | LA 38 at HOU 13 |
| 2009 · Wk 15 | HOU 16 at LA 13 |
2025 records
| Texans | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 12–5 |
| Division | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 7–2 | 7–1 |
| Away | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WWLLW |
| Streak | Won 9 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 23.8 – 17.4 | 30.5 – 20.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Texans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors HOU | HOU def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#1 | -0.16#1 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 51%#1 | 37%#2 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.3#1 | 4.7#2 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#6 | 8%#8 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.22#2 | -0.22#1 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#3 | 9%#6 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.04#4 | -0.16#2 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#2 | 3.5#2 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 36%#6 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 65%#7 | 60%#21 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 192#2 | 128#10 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 69#4 | 43#5 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 7.0#13 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#30 | 31#18 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
Texans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.