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2025 season · Dec 11 to Dec 15 · 16 games

Week 15 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

16 of 16 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Falcons beat the Buccaneers 29–28 as a 29% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Falcons were down to 3% against the Buccaneers and won 29–28.
  • WildestPackers at Broncos: the lead changed hands 5 times; the Broncos won 34–26, and the biggest swing was 16 points at Q3 0:06.
  • Best offenseThe Jaguars: +0.33 EPA a play against the Jets, +0.31 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Bears held the Browns to −0.47 EPA a play, −0.52 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerTrevor Lawrence (JAX QB): +29.1 EPA, 20/32, 330 yds, 5 TD · 5-51 rush.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 15
Games final16 of 16
Overtime0
Comebacks6
Upsets6
Points789
Biggest swing57 pts
ATLFalcons29TBBuccaneers28
Biggest swing 57 pts · Q4 0:04
Upset · 29% at kickoffComeback from 3%
CLEBrowns3CHIBears31
Biggest swing 8 pts · Q1 14:02
Led all the way
BALRavens24CINBengals0
Biggest swing 10 pts · Q2 9:46
ARICardinals20HOUTexans40
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q1 14:21
Led all the way
NYJJets20JAXJaguars48
Biggest swing 5 pts · Q1 10:22
Led all the way
LACChargers16KCChiefs13
Biggest swing 26 pts · Q4 0:20
Upset · 30% at kickoffComeback from 13%
BUFBills35NEPatriots31
Biggest swing 29 pts · Q4 10:03
Comeback from 10%
WASCommanders29NYGGiants21
Biggest swing 13 pts · Q2 0:26
Upset · 44% at kickoff
LVRaiders0PHIEagles31
Biggest swing 4 pts · Q1 13:32
Led all the way
GBPackers26DENBroncos34
Biggest swing 16 pts · Q3 0:06
Upset · 46% at kickoffComeback from 12%
DETLions34LARams41
Biggest swing 23 pts · Q1 8:24
CARPanthers17NOSaints20
Biggest swing 18 pts · Q4 0:12
Upset · 42% at kickoffComeback from 9%
INDColts16SEASeahawks18
Biggest swing 29 pts · Q4 0:22
TENTitans24SF49ers37
Biggest swing 4 pts · Q1 13:51
Led all the way
MINVikings34DALCowboys26
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q1 14:09
Upset · 30% at kickoffComeback from 13%
MIADolphins15PITSteelers28
Biggest swing 11 pts · Q2 0:21

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. 1ATLFalcons · Q4 0:04 · ATL at TBZ.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD+5743% → 100%
  2. 2ATLFalcons · Q4 0:49 · ATL at TBK.Cousins pass deep right to D.Sills to TB 36 for 21 yards (A.Winfield).+3016% → 46%
  3. 3NEPatriots · Q4 10:03 · BUF at NET.T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2928% → 57%
  4. 4SEASeahawks · Q4 0:22 · IND at SEAJ.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD+2955% → 84%
  5. 5INDColts · Q4 0:52 · IND at SEAB.Grupe 60 yard field goal is GOOD+2734% → 61%
  6. 6LACChargers · Q4 0:20 · LAC at KCG.Minshew pass deep left intended for T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by D.James at LAC 18. D.James to LAC 18 for no gain (T.Kelce).+2668% → 94%
  7. 7DETLions · Q1 8:24 · DET at LAM.Stafford pass short right intended for C.Parkinson INTERCEPTED by A.Hutchinson at DET 25. A.Hutchinson to LA 17 for 58 yards (C.Parkinson).+2319% → 42%
  8. 8BUFBills · Q4 11:22 · BUF at NEJ.Allen pass deep right to K.Shakir to NE 8 for 37 yards (M.Jones). Penalty on NE-M.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.+2340% → 63%
  9. 9BUFBills · Q4 10:10 · BUF at NEJ.Allen pass short right to D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+1954% → 73%
  10. 10NOSaints · Q4 0:12 · CAR at NOT.Shough up the middle to CAR 44 for 4 yards (L.Ransom). NO-T.Shough was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-L.Ransom, Unnecessary Roughness,…+1856% → 74%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1MINVikings · Q2 12:08 · vs DAL · Jordan AddisonJ.McCarthy pass deep left to J.Addison to DAL 4 for 58 yards.+5.4EPA
  2. 2NEPatriots · Q4 10:03 · vs BUF · TreVeyon HendersonT.T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.3EPA
  3. 3BUFBills · Q4 11:22 · vs NE · Khalil ShakirJ.Allen pass deep right to K.Shakir to NE 8 for 37 yards. Penalty on NE-M.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.+5.1EPA
  4. 4HOUTexans · Q1 14:21 · vs ARI · Nico CollinsC.Stroud pass short middle to N.Collins for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.8EPA
  5. 5JAXJaguars · Q4 13:51 · vs NYJ · Travis EtienneT.Lawrence pass short right to T.Etienne for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.7EPA
  6. 6WASCommanders · Q4 13:56 · vs NYG · Terry McLaurinM.Mariota pass deep middle to T.McLaurin for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.6EPA
  7. 7NEPatriots · Q2 6:03 · vs BUF · TreVeyon HendersonT.T.Henderson right guard for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.5EPA
  8. 8NYGGiants · Q4 3:49 · vs WAS · Wan'Dale RobinsonJ.Dart pass deep right to W.Robinson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN [P.Smith].+4.5EPA
  9. 9JAXJaguars · Q2 0:27 · vs NYJ · Travis EtienneT.Lawrence pass deep right to T.Etienne for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.4EPA
  10. 10MINVikings · Q3 2:49 · vs DAL · Jalen NailorJ.McCarthy pass deep right to J.Nailor to DAL 14 for 23 yards.+4.4EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1JAXJaguarsvs NYJ · W 48–20+0.33+0.31 vs usual
2BUFBillsat NE · W 35–31+0.26+0.13 vs usual
3SF49ersvs TEN · W 37–24+0.25+0.20 vs usual
4HOUTexansvs ARI · W 40–20+0.25+0.29 vs usual
5PHIEaglesvs LV · W 31–0+0.25+0.24 vs usual
6NEPatriotsvs BUF · L 31–35+0.24+0.16 vs usual
7TENTitansat SF · L 24–37+0.23+0.41 vs usual
8MINVikingsat DAL · W 34–26+0.23+0.36 vs usual
9PITSteelersvs MIA · W 28–15+0.22+0.24 vs usual
10ATLFalconsat TB · W 29–28+0.22+0.26 vs usual
11BALRavensat CIN · W 24–0+0.21+0.18 vs usual
12LARamsvs DET · W 41–34+0.20+0.06 vs usual
13DENBroncosvs GB · W 34–26+0.16+0.14 vs usual
14DETLionsat LA · L 34–41+0.16+0.08 vs usual
15DALCowboysvs MIN · L 26–34+0.11+0.01 vs usual
16CARPanthersat NO · L 17–20+0.11+0.16 vs usual
17NOSaintsvs CAR · W 20–17+0.11+0.21 vs usual
18TBBuccaneersvs ATL · L 28–29+0.06+0.07 vs usual
19CHIBearsvs CLE · W 31–3+0.05−0.02 vs usual
20GBPackersat DEN · L 26–34+0.02−0.11 vs usual
21NYGGiantsvs WAS · L 21–29+0.02+0.01 vs usual
22ARICardinalsat HOU · L 20–40+0.01+0.03 vs usual
23WASCommandersat NYG · W 29–21+0.00−0.00 vs usual
24MIADolphinsat PIT · L 15–28−0.04−0.03 vs usual
25SEASeahawksvs IND · W 18–16−0.04−0.09 vs usual
26LACChargersat KC · W 16–13−0.05−0.01 vs usual
27INDColtsat SEA · L 16–18−0.10−0.18 vs usual
28KCChiefsvs LAC · L 13–16−0.11−0.15 vs usual
29NYJJetsat JAX · L 20–48−0.16−0.03 vs usual
30CINBengalsvs BAL · L 0–24−0.31−0.32 vs usual
31LVRaidersat PHI · L 0–31−0.41−0.20 vs usual
32CLEBrownsat CHI · L 3–31−0.47−0.29 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 116Trevor LawrenceJAX vs NYJ · 20/32, 330 yds, 5 TD · 5-51 rush+29.1
  2. 213Brock PurdySF vs TEN · 23/30, 295 yds, 3 TD · 7-44 rush+22.1
  3. 310Bo NixDEN vs GB · 23/34, 302 yds, 4 TD · 7-10 rush+20.3
  4. 41Jalen HurtsPHI vs LV · 12/15, 175 yds, 3 TD · 7-39 rush+18.9
  5. 518Kirk CousinsATL vs TB · 30/44, 373 yds, 3 TD+17.2
  6. 67C.J. StroudHOU vs ARI · 22/29, 260 yds, 3 TD · 6-10 rush+15.3
  7. 79J.J. McCarthyMIN vs DAL · 15/24, 250 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4-15 rush+15.0
  8. 86Tyler ShoughNO vs CAR · 24/32, 272 yds, 1 TD · 8-32 rush+13.1
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 132TreVeyon HendersonNE vs BUF · 14 car, 148 yds, 2 TD · 2-13 rec+8.1
  2. 21Travis EtienneJAX vs NYJ · 12 car, 32 yds · 3-73 rec+6.3
  3. 320Tony PollardTEN vs SF · 14 car, 104 yds, 1 TD · 1-8 rec+5.9
  4. 414Kenneth GainwellPIT vs MIA · 13 car, 80 yds · 7-46 rec+5.6
  5. 533Javonte WilliamsDAL vs MIN · 15 car, 91 yds, 1 TD+5.2
  6. 622Michael CarterARI vs HOU · 14 car, 56 yds · 4-38 rec+5.0
  7. 74James CookBUF vs NE · 22 car, 107 yds, 2 TD · 2-4 rec+4.8
  8. 822Blake CorumLA vs DET · 11 car, 71 yds, 1 TD+4.8
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 116Trevor LawrenceJAX vs NYJ · QB44.3
  2. 28Kyle PittsATL vs TB · TE34.6
  3. 34James CookBUF vs NE · RB29.1
  4. 410Bo NixDEN vs GB · QB29.1
  5. 51Travis EtienneJAX vs NYJ · RB28.5
  6. 614Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs LA · WR28.4
  7. 732TreVeyon HendersonNE vs BUF · RB28.1
  8. 818Kirk CousinsATL vs TB · QB26.9
  9. 913Brock PurdySF vs TEN · QB26.2
  10. 1016Jared GoffDET vs LA · QB25.5
  11. 1185Trey McBrideARI vs HOU · TE25.4
  12. 1217Josh AllenBUF vs NE · QB24.5
  13. 139J.J. McCarthyMIN vs DAL · QB23.5
  14. 147C.J. StroudHOU vs ARI · QB23.4
  15. 151Jalen HurtsPHI vs LV · QB22.9
  16. 166Jaxson DartNYG vs WAS · QB22.1
  1. 116Trevor LawrenceJAX vs NYJ · QB44.3
  2. 28Kyle PittsATL vs TB · TE40.1
  3. 314Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs LA · WR34.9
  4. 485Trey McBrideARI vs HOU · TE31.4
  5. 54James CookBUF vs NE · RB30.1
  6. 61Travis EtienneJAX vs NYJ · RB30.0
  7. 710Bo NixDEN vs GB · QB29.1
  8. 832TreVeyon HendersonNE vs BUF · RB29.1
  9. 918Kirk CousinsATL vs TB · QB26.9
  10. 1013Brock PurdySF vs TEN · QB26.2
  11. 117Bijan RobinsonATL vs TB · RB25.5
  12. 1216Jared GoffDET vs LA · QB25.5
  13. 1317Josh AllenBUF vs NE · QB24.5
  14. 149J.J. McCarthyMIN vs DAL · QB23.5
  15. 157C.J. StroudHOU vs ARI · QB23.4
  16. 1612Puka NacuaLA vs DET · WR23.4
  1. 18Kyle PittsATL vs TB · TE45.6
  2. 216Trevor LawrenceJAX vs NYJ · QB44.3
  3. 314Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs LA · WR41.4
  4. 485Trey McBrideARI vs HOU · TE37.4
  5. 51Travis EtienneJAX vs NYJ · RB31.5
  6. 64James CookBUF vs NE · RB31.1
  7. 732TreVeyon HendersonNE vs BUF · RB30.1
  8. 87Bijan RobinsonATL vs TB · RB29.5
  9. 910Bo NixDEN vs GB · QB29.1
  10. 1012Puka NacuaLA vs DET · WR27.9
  11. 1118Kirk CousinsATL vs TB · QB26.9
  12. 121Jameson WilliamsDET vs LA · WR26.4
  13. 1313Brock PurdySF vs TEN · QB26.2
  14. 1483Darren WallerMIA vs PIT · TE25.6
  15. 1516Jared GoffDET vs LA · QB25.5
  16. 1688Dallas GoedertPHI vs LV · TE25.0
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 112Puka NacuaLA vs DET · 9/11, 181 yds+15.8
  2. 214Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs LA · 13/18, 164 yds, 2 TD+10.6
  3. 311Troy FranklinDEN vs GB · 6/6, 85 yds, 1 TD+9.1
  4. 414Devaughn VeleNO vs CAR · 5/6, 69 yds+9.0
  5. 51Ricky PearsallSF vs TEN · 6/7, 96 yds+8.8
  6. 61Jameson WilliamsDET vs LA · 7/10, 134 yds, 1 TD+8.7
  7. 714Courtland SuttonDEN vs GB · 7/10, 113 yds, 1 TD+8.3
  8. 812Nico CollinsHOU vs ARI · 3/4, 85 yds, 2 TD+8.0
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 18Kyle PittsATL vs TB · 11/12, 166 yds, 3 TD+13.5
  2. 285Trey McBrideARI vs HOU · 12/13, 134 yds, 2 TD+11.9
  3. 388Dawson KnoxBUF vs NE · 3/4, 37 yds, 2 TD+6.5
  4. 486Dalton SchultzHOU vs ARI · 8/9, 76 yds, 1 TD+5.8
  5. 584Colston LovelandCHI vs CLE · 4/5, 63 yds+5.7
  6. 683Darren WallerMIA vs PIT · 7/8, 66 yds, 2 TD+5.6
  7. 785George KittleSF vs TEN · 8/9, 88 yds, 1 TD+5.5
  8. 886Oronde Gadsden IILAC vs KC · 4/5, 61 yds+5.2

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 15 · against his own season407 played

The biggest swing in snaps in Week 15: Kenny Pickett (Raiders) took 100% of the snaps, up 86 points on his season; Jameis Winston (Giants) fell to 3% from 100.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

▲ Climbers
15Kenny PickettLV · QB+86 pts14% → 100%15Mason TiptonNO · WR+56 pts24% → 80%84Shane ZylstraDET · TE+54 pts5% → 58%18Terrance FergusonLA · TE+50 pts28% → 78%18Jack BechLV · WR+48 pts33% → 81%
▼ Fallers
19Jameis WinstonNYG · QB−97 pts100% → 3%2Spencer RattlerNO · QB−91 pts92% → 1%19Cedric TillmanCLE · WR−56 pts68% → 12%5Tyler HuntleyBAL · QB−54 pts66% → 12%33Javonte WilliamsDAL · RB−47 pts76% → 29%

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

▲ Climbers
44Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · TE+24 pts21% → 45%13Mack HollinsNE · WR+23 pts13% → 36%88Dallas GoedertPHI · TE+19 pts20% → 39%83Darren WallerMIA · TE+19 pts12% → 31%87David SillsATL · WR+19 pts6% → 24%
▼ Fallers
23Christian McCaffreySF · RB−21 pts25% → 4%11A.J. BrownPHI · WR−18 pts29% → 11%0Keon ColemanBUF · WR−17 pts17% → 0%6DeVonta SmithPHI · WR−15 pts27% → 11%14Alec PierceIND · WR−15 pts19% → 4%

EPAthe week against his per-game average

▲ Climbers
16Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB+24.6 EPA-0.9 → +23.818Kirk CousinsATL · QB+21.5 EPA-4.3 → +17.29J.J. McCarthyMIN · QB+21.4 EPA-9.3 → +12.010Bo NixDEN · QB+17.1 EPA+3.5 → +20.68Kyle PittsATL · TE+13.2 EPA+0.3 → +13.5
▼ Fallers
12Shedeur SandersCLE · QB−20.6 EPA-2.4 → -22.99Joe BurrowCIN · QB−17.3 EPA+3.5 → -13.715Kenny PickettLV · QB−16.8 EPA0.0 → -16.744Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · TE−12.5 EPA+0.8 → -11.610Drake MayeNE · QB−12.3 EPA+8.9 → -3.4
New faces43Malik DavisDAL · RB · first start-level week, 53% of the snaps84Shane ZylstraDET · TE · first start-level week, 58% of the snaps26Jawhar JordanHOU · RB · debut, 42% of the snaps17Philip RiversIND · QB · debut, 100% of the snaps15Kenny PickettLV · QB · first start-level week, 100% of the snaps11Jalen McMillanTB · WR · debut, 46% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.