2025
Week 15 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · NRG Stadium
vs
Cardinals offensevsTexans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cardinals, 19 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Texans won 40–20 and were favored the whole way, never below 80%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 14:21, 14 points for the Texans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 14:21HOUC.Stroud pass short middle to N.Collins for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.80% → 94%
- 2Q1 12:03HOUK.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD89% → 92%
- 3Q1 15:00HOUC.Ryland kicks 63 yards from ARI 35 to HOU 2. J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 41 for 39 yards (D.Burke).80% → 83%
- 4Q1 12:43ARIC.Stroud scrambles up the middle to ARI 12 for 1 yard (Z.Collins; W.Nolen).9% → 11%
- 5Q1 14:53ARIB.W.Marks left tackle to HOU 43 for 2 yards (Z.Collins).18% → 20%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.McBride led the Cardinals at +12.0 EPA (12 catches for 134). C.Stroud led the Texans at +15.3 EPA (22 of 29 for 260).
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 27/40 | 249 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Carter80% | 14 | 67% | 56 | +3.2 | |
| J.Brissett100% | 3 | 14% | 6 | +0.2 | |
| C.Kiner8% | 2 | 10% | 11 | +0.5 | |
| B.Knight2% | 1 | 5% | -2 | -0.9 | |
| E.Demercado11% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride92% | 13 | 34% | 12 | 134 | 2 | +12.0 |
| M.Wilson85% | 11 | 29% | 5 | 54 | 1 | -5.4 |
| M.Carter80% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 38 | +1.8 | |
| J.Brooks71% | 3 | 8% | 1 | 19 | +0.6 | |
| E.Demercado11% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 0 | -3.1 | |
| P.Brown17% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 1 | -0.9 | |
| E.Higgins70% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 3 | -1.7 |
Defense W.Nolen 1 sack
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 22/29 | 260 | 3 | 1 | +15.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jordan42% | 15 | 45% | 101 | +1.7 | |
| W.Marks22% | 7 | 21% | 30 | +0.1 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 6 | 18% | 10 | +0.2 | |
| D.Ogunbowale31% | 5 | 15% | 2 | -2.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Schultz79% | 9 | 35% | 8 | 76 | 1 | +5.9 |
| D.Ogunbowale31% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 32 | +2.1 | |
| N.Collins73% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 85 | 2 | +8.0 |
| C.Stover61% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 22 | +1.9 | |
| X.Hutchinson30% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 16 | -0.4 | |
| J.Jordan42% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 17 | +0.8 | |
| J.Higgins72% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.8 | |
| W.Marks22% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.5 |
Defense K.Lassiter 1 INT, D.Autry 1 sack, D.Hunter 1 sack · Kicking K.Fairbairn 4/5 FG (long 55)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Texans give up 7.0 targets a game to tight ends (13th), against a league average of 7.3. Cardinals' tight ends produce 12.8 (1st).
Deep left is open
Texans are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.68 EPA per attempt. Cardinals send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Cardinals' run game is 29th in EPA per carry (-0.11). Texans allow -0.16 (2nd).
Success rate
Call this one even. Cardinals succeed on 43% of plays (21st) against a defense that allows 37% (2nd).
The Texans lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 15 | ARI 20 at HOU 40 |
| 2023 · Wk 11 | ARI 16 at HOU 21 |
| 2021 · Wk 7 | HOU 5 at ARI 31 |
| 2017 · Wk 11 | ARI 21 at HOU 31 |
| 2013 · Wk 10 | HOU 24 at ARI 27 |
2025 records
| Cardinals | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 12–5 |
| Division | 0–6 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 2–3 |
| Home | 1–7 | 7–2 |
| Away | 2–7 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 9 | Won 9 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 28.7 | 23.8 – 17.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ARI off | Favors ARI · Favors HOU | HOU def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#22 | -0.16#1 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#21 | 37%#2 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#23 | 4.7#2 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#29 | 8%#8 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#15 | -0.22#1 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#23 | 9%#6 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#29 | -0.16#2 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#24 | 3.5#2 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#9 | 36%#6 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#22 | 60%#21 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 125#23 | 128#10 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 93#1 | 43#5 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 12.8#1 | 7.0#13 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 38#6 | 31#18 | 32 | |
Cardinals: EPA per throw
Texans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.