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DOWN X DOWN › week 15 › Chargers at Chiefs

Season over · final

2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 15 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Chargers offensevsChiefs defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Chargers, 17 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

LAC offense KC offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · LAC 16 · KC 13

The Chargers won 16–13 from as low as 13% (Q2 0:56, down 10⁠–⁠3). The Chiefs had been 71% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 12:47: P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for K.Hunt INTERCEPTED by D.Henley at LAC 1. D.Henley to LAC 1 for no gain (K.Hunt) (44% → 55%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:20, 26 points for the Chargers.

At kickoffKC 71%KC by 5.5 on the line

LAC low point13%Q2 0:56 · down 10⁠–⁠3

Swings past 50%9times the favorite changed

Biggest swing26 ptsLAC · Q4 0:20

KC wins50%LAC wins

12345Turning pointLAC low 13%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q4 0:20LACG.Minshew pass deep left intended for T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by D.James at LAC 18. D.James to LAC 18 for no gain (T.Kelce).68% → 94%+26
2Q4 13:46KCP.Mahomes pass deep middle to T.Thornton to LAC 30 for 21 yards (T.Jefferson) [K.Mack]. KC-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on…47% → 63%+15
3Q4 12:47LACP.Mahomes pass deep right intended for K.Hunt INTERCEPTED by D.Henley at LAC 1. D.Henley to LAC 1 for no gain (K.Hunt).turning point44% → 55%+11
4Q4 0:27LACG.Minshew pass incomplete short right.52% → 63%+11
5Q3 0:57LACC.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD42% → 52%+10

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 15

O.II led the Chargers at +5.2 EPA (4 catches for 61). T.Thornton led the Chiefs at +4.3 EPA (2 catches for 47).

Chargers

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
J.Herbert100%	19/29	210	1	1	4	+0.4

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
O.Hampton36%	15	52%	61	+0.5
K.Vidal64%	12	41%	33	-2.5
J.Herbert100%	2	7%	0	-1.2

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
K.Allen42%	7	27%	5	36		+1.3
O.II52%	5	19%	4	61		+5.2
T.Harris85%	5	19%	3	49		+0.4
L.McConkey74%	3	12%	2	20		-3.0
S.Matlock55%	2	8%	2	9		+0.2
T.Penning	1	4%	0	0		-1.0
K.Vidal64%	1	4%	1	15		+1.3
K.Lambert-Smith32%	1	4%	1	16	1	+4.2
O.Hampton36%	1	4%	1	4		+0.0

Defense O.Oweh 2 sacks, T.Tuipulotu 2 sacks, D.James 1 INT, D.Henley 1 INT · Kicking C.Dicker 3/3 FG (long 49)

Chiefs

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
P.Mahomes92%	16/28	189		1	5	-3.6
G.Minshew8%	3/5	22		1		-1.1

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
I.Pacheco46%	11	52%	21		-5.1
K.Hunt49%	6	29%	12		+0.3
P.Mahomes92%	2	10%	15	1	+2.4
B.Smith5%	2	10%	1		+0.8

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	EPA
R.Rice85%	11	37%	7	51	-0.6
T.Kelce98%	9	30%	7	70	+3.9
X.Worthy67%	4	13%	2	35	+0.1
T.Thornton51%	3	10%	2	47	+4.3
K.Hunt49%	2	7%	1	8	-2.5
J.Smith-Schuster52%	1	3%	0	0	-0.5

Defense A.Gillotte 0.5 sacks and 1 INT, C.Omenihu 1.5 sacks, J.Watson 1 sack, L.Chenal 0.5 sacks · Kicking H.Butker 2/2 FG (long 47)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Third downs favor Chargers

Chargers convert 45% of third downs (5th). Chiefs allow 44% (27th).

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Chiefs are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.83 EPA per attempt. Chargers send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Tight ends go quiet

Chiefs give up 5.9 targets a game to tight ends (4th), against a league average of 7.3. Chargers' tight ends produce 5.8 (26th).

Wash

Success rate

Call this one even. Chargers succeed on 43% of plays (22nd) against a defense that allows 44% (14th).

The series · Chargers and Chiefs since 1999, and this season's records55 meetings

The Chiefs lead the series 32–23 since 1999. Oct 18, 2026, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium: the Chiefs won 22–6. Patrick Mahomes started at quarterback for the Chiefs and Justin Herbert for the Chargers; Andy Reid and Jim Harbaugh coached.

Chargers at home12–13the Chargers' record

In Kansas City10–18the Chargers' record

Most pointsChargers 43 · Chiefs 422009 · 2000

Biggest winChargers by 31 · Chiefs by 342010 · 1999

The last 5

2026 · Wk 6	LAC 6 at KC 22
2025 · Wk 15	LAC 16 at KC 13
2025 · Wk 1	KC 21 at LAC 27
2024 · Wk 14	LAC 17 at KC 19
2024 · Wk 4	KC 17 at LAC 10

2025 records

	Chargers	Chiefs
Overall	11–6	6–11
Division	5–1	1–5
Conference	8–4	3–9
Other conference	3–2	3–2
Home	6–3	5–4
Away	5–3	1–7
Last 5	WWWLL	LLLLL
Streak	Lost 2	Lost 6
Points a game	21.6 – 20.0	21.3 – 19.3

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chargers' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · LAC offense against KC defense

Stat	LAC off	KC def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.04#25	-0.02#12	+0.01
Success rate	43%#22	44%#14	44%
Yards per play	5.2#22	5.3#13	5.4
Explosive play rate	9%#21	9%#12	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.07#26	0.00#15	+0.01
Sack rate	10%#28	6%#19	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.08#23	-0.09#9	-0.05
Yards per carry	3.9#25	3.9#7	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	45%#5	44%#27	40%
Red zone TD rate	47%#29	55%#10	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	155#10	129#12	140
TE yards per game	51#18	48#11	53
TE targets per game	5.8#26	5.9#4	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	23#27	29#14	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Chargers: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.527% of throws

-0.332% of throws

+0.337% of throws

Short

+0.1527% of throws

+0.0820% of throws

-0.0337% of throws

Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.3644 throws

+0.8311 throws

+0.2930 throws