2025
Week 1 · Friday 8:00 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
vs
Chiefs offensevsChargers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Chiefs, 18 for Chargers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chargers won 27–21; their low point was 39% at Q1 15:00. The Chiefs had been 61% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 5:46: O.Hampton left end to LAC 39 for 4 yards (N.Bolton). KC-D.Tranquill was injured during the play (45% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 12:10, 16 points for the Chiefs.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 12:10KCP.Mahomes pass short right to T.Kelce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.29% → 45%
- 2Q4 3:24KCP.Mahomes pass deep middle to M.Brown to LAC 9 for 49 yards (E.Molden) [K.Mack].5% → 20%
- 3Q2 0:03KCH.Butker 59 yard field goal is GOOD19% → 32%
- 4Q3 0:36LACJ.Herbert pass short left to K.Allen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: KC-D.Tranquill has returned to the game.64% → 75%
- 5Q4 5:09LACJ.Herbert pass deep right to Q.Johnston for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-J.Hicks, Face Mask, 8 yards, enforced between downs.81% → 90%
- ★Q3 5:46LACO.Hampton left end to LAC 39 for 4 yards (N.Bolton). KC-D.Tranquill was injured during the play.turning point45% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
P.Mahomes led the Chiefs at +10.7 EPA (24 of 39 for 258). J.Herbert led the Chargers at +17.4 EPA (25 of 34 for 318).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 24/39 | 258 | 1 | 2 | +3.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 6 | 35% | 57 | 1 | +7.2 |
| K.Hunt38% | 5 | 29% | 16 | +2.3 | |
| I.Pacheco51% | 5 | 29% | 25 | +0.2 | |
| X.Worthy5% | 1 | 6% | 0 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Brown93% | 16 | 42% | 10 | 99 | +3.1 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster80% | 5 | 13% | 5 | 55 | +4.6 | |
| T.Kelce84% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 47 | 1 | +3.0 |
| T.Thornton72% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 41 | -1.0 | |
| K.Hunt38% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 10 | +0.4 | |
| I.Pacheco51% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 3 | -2.0 | |
| N.Gray41% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.3 | |
| J.Brownlee10% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| X.Worthy5% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 |
Defense D.Tranquill 2 sacks, G.Karlaftis 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 3/3 FG (long 59)
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 25/34 | 318 | 3 | 3 | +17.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.Hampton80% | 15 | 60% | 48 | -0.5 | |
| J.Herbert100% | 7 | 28% | 32 | -0.2 | |
| T.Conklin43% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +0.5 | |
| N.Harris18% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.1 | |
| D.Davis12% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Allen62% | 10 | 29% | 7 | 68 | 1 | +6.4 |
| L.McConkey85% | 9 | 26% | 6 | 74 | +5.2 | |
| Q.Johnston82% | 7 | 21% | 5 | 79 | 2 | +5.6 |
| T.Conklin43% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 50 | +2.7 | |
| O.Hampton80% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 13 | +0.7 | |
| W.Dissly57% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 18 | +1.1 | |
| N.Harris18% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | -0.1 | |
| K.Lambert-Smith22% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| T.Harris8% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +0.7 |
Defense D.Hand 1 sack, D.Henley 1 sack · Kicking C.Dicker 2/2 FG (long 39)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Chargers give up 43 yards a game to tight ends (6th), against a league average of 53. Chiefs' tight ends produce 61 (8th).
Deep left is open
Chargers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.49 EPA per attempt. Chiefs send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Chargers
Chiefs convert 38% of third downs (23rd). Chargers allow 35% (3rd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Chiefs create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (18th). Chargers give them up at 9% (17th).
The Chiefs lead the series 32–23 since 1999. Oct 18, 2026, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium: the Chiefs won 22–6. Patrick Mahomes started at quarterback for the Chiefs and Justin Herbert for the Chargers; Andy Reid and Jim Harbaugh coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | LAC 6 at KC 22 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | LAC 16 at KC 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | KC 21 at LAC 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | LAC 17 at KC 19 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | KC 17 at LAC 10 |
2025 records
| Chiefs | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 11–6 |
| Division | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–4 | 6–3 |
| Away | 1–7 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWLL |
| Streak | Lost 6 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 19.3 | 21.6 – 20.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | KC off | Favors KC · Favors LAC | LAC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#12 | -0.08#7 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#15 | 41%#6 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#20 | 5.2#12 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#18 | 9%#17 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.04#14 | -0.09#10 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 9%#5 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#15 | -0.12#3 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#26 | 4.1#14 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#23 | 35%#3 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#19 | 44%#1 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 147#14 | 127#8 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#8 | 43#6 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.6#7 | 5.7#2 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#25 | 29#15 | 32 | |
Chiefs: EPA per throw
Chargers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.