2025
Week 15 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
vs
Dolphins offensevsSteelers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Dolphins, 18 for Steelers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 28–15; their low point was 48% at Q2 5:11. The game turned for good at Q2 5:11: R.Patterson kicks 37 yards from MIA 35 to PIT 28, short of landing zone. PENALTY on MIA-R.Patterson, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at PIT 40 (48% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:21, 11 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:21PITDirect snap to Co.Heyward. Co.Heyward right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.63% → 75%
- 2Q2 1:46PITDirect snap to Co.Heyward. Co.Heyward up the middle to MIA 14 for 1 yard (T.Dodson; A.Davis).53% → 63%
- 3Q1 8:01MIAT.Tagovailoa pass deep left intended for J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by A.Samuel at PIT 19. A.Samuel to PIT 19 for no gain (J.Waddle).52% → 60%
- 4Q2 5:17MIAR.Patterson 54 yard field goal is GOOD44% → 52%
- 5Q2 7:46MIAT.Tagovailoa pass deep left to D.Achane to PIT 41 for 24 yards (P.Wilson; J.Ramsey).41% → 49%
- ★Q2 5:11PITR.Patterson kicks 37 yards from MIA 35 to PIT 28, short of landing zone. PENALTY on MIA-R.Patterson, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at PIT 40.turning point48% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Waller led the Dolphins at +5.6 EPA (7 catches for 66). A.Rodgers led the Steelers at +11.1 EPA (23 of 27 for 224).
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tagovailoa100% | 22/28 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +2.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane80% | 12 | 75% | 60 | -0.1 | |
| O.II12% | 2 | 13% | 0 | -2.8 | |
| T.Tagovailoa100% | 1 | 6% | 1 | -1.2 | |
| J.Wright8% | 1 | 6% | 2 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Waller54% | 8 | 31% | 7 | 66 | 2 | +5.6 |
| D.Achane80% | 6 | 23% | 6 | 67 | +4.1 | |
| J.Waddle84% | 4 | 15% | 2 | 26 | -3.3 | |
| G.Dulcich38% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 46 | +1.5 | |
| J.Hill42% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 25 | +1.4 | |
| A.Ingold38% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.4 | |
| N.Westbrook-Ikhine36% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | |
| J.Wright8% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 | |
| M.Washington56% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 10 | +0.1 |
Defense Z.Sieler 1 sack, J.Brooks 1 sack, Z.Biggers 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 1/1 FG (long 54)
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 23/27 | 224 | 2 | 3 | +11.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Gainwell52% | 13 | 41% | 80 | +0.5 | |
| J.Warren45% | 12 | 38% | 33 | -2.8 | |
| C.Heyward6% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 1 | +3.7 |
| K.Johnson3% | 2 | 6% | 4 | -0.8 | |
| J.Smith29% | 1 | 3% | 14 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Gainwell52% | 7 | 26% | 7 | 46 | +5.1 | |
| P.Freiermuth42% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 45 | +5.2 | |
| D.Washington73% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 25 | +0.8 | |
| D.Metcalf79% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 55 | 1 | +6.2 |
| J.Warren45% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 15 | -0.7 | |
| J.Smith29% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 12 | +0.1 | |
| A.Thielen58% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.0 | |
| M.Valdes-Scantling52% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 19 | 1 | +2.5 |
| C.III27% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 |
Defense A.Jr. 1 INT, C.Heyward 1 sack, J.Ramsey 1 sack, E.Otomewo 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Dolphins' run game is 9th in EPA per carry (-0.03). Steelers allow -0.01 (26th).
Deep middle is open
Steelers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Dolphins score a touchdown on 56% of red zone trips (23rd). Steelers allow 54% (7th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Dolphins average -0.02 EPA per play (21st). Steelers allow +0.02 (18th). League average is +0.01.
The Steelers lead the series 8–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 15 | MIA 15 at PIT 28 |
| 2022 · Wk 7 | PIT 10 at MIA 16 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | MIA 14 at PIT 27 |
| 2016 · Wk 18 · playoffs | MIA 12 at PIT 30 |
| 2016 · Wk 6 | PIT 15 at MIA 30 |
2025 records
| Dolphins | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7–10 | 10–7 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–4 | 6–3 |
| Away | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Last 5 | WLLWL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 20.4 – 24.9 | 23.4 – 22.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Dolphins' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIA off | Favors MIA · Favors PIT | PIT def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#21 | +0.02#18 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#26 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#14 | 5.6#19 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#9 | 9%#15 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#18 | +0.03#17 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#19 | 7%#10 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.03#9 | -0.01#26 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#3 | 4.3#19 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#26 | 44%#28 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#23 | 54%#7 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 110#26 | 167#29 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 50#19 | 64#28 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.0#25 | 8.3#28 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#9 | 30#16 | 32 | |
Dolphins: EPA per throw
Steelers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.