2025
Week 15 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Bills offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bills, 21 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 35–31 from as low as 11% (Q2 0:02, down 21–7). The game turned for good at Q4 8:19: J.Allen pass incomplete short right to K.Coleman. PENALTY on NE-C.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NE 47 - No Play (42% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 10:03, 29 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 10:03NET.T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.28% → 57%
- 2Q4 11:22BUFJ.Allen pass deep right to K.Shakir to NE 8 for 37 yards (M.Jones). Penalty on NE-M.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.40% → 63%
- 3Q4 10:10BUFJ.Allen pass short right to D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.54% → 73%
- 4Q4 8:19BUFJ.Allen pass incomplete short right to K.Coleman. PENALTY on NE-C.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NE 47 - No Play.turning point42% → 54%
- 5Q1 13:00NED.Maye pass deep right to K.Boutte to BUF 25 for 30 yards (M.Hairston).40% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Allen led the Bills at +9.0 EPA (19 of 28 for 193). T.Henderson led the Patriots at +8.1 EPA (14 carries for 148).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 19/28 | 193 | 3 | 2 | +9.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook67% | 22 | 59% | 107 | 2 | +4.6 |
| J.Allen100% | 11 | 30% | 48 | -0.5 | |
| T.Johnson26% | 4 | 11% | 13 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir69% | 5 | 19% | 5 | 65 | +4.9 | |
| D.Knox64% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 37 | 2 | +6.6 |
| D.Kincaid36% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 34 | +1.6 | |
| B.Cooks34% | 3 | 12% | 0 | 0 | -1.7 | |
| T.Johnson26% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 15 | -0.7 | |
| J.Cook67% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 4 | 1 | +0.2 |
| J.Palmer33% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 16 | +1.2 | |
| R.Davis9% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 13 | +0.9 | |
| J.Hawes44% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 |
Defense M.Milano 2 sacks, T.White 1 INT, G.Rousseau 1 sack
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 14/23 | 155 | 1 | 3 | -3.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Henderson48% | 14 | 56% | 148 | 2 | +8.3 |
| R.Stevenson67% | 6 | 24% | 50 | +3.0 | |
| D.Maye100% | 4 | 16% | 43 | 2 | +4.4 |
| D.Douglas19% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Hollins79% | 8 | 36% | 4 | 41 | -0.3 | |
| S.Diggs50% | 4 | 18% | 3 | 26 | -1.3 | |
| H.Henry87% | 3 | 14% | 1 | 18 | -0.4 | |
| R.Stevenson67% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 27 | +1.0 | |
| T.Henderson48% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 13 | -0.2 | |
| K.Boutte75% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 30 | +3.1 |
Defense H.III 1 sack, J.Gibbens 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 1/1 FG (long 36)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Patriots give up 55 yards a game to tight ends (20th), against a league average of 53. Bills' tight ends produce 73 (2nd).
Deep middle is open
Patriots are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.32 EPA per attempt. Bills send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Patriots give up 117 yards a game to wide receivers (4th), against a league average of 140. Bills' wide receivers produce 130 (20th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bills gain 6.0 yards per play (5th). Patriots give up 4.9 (6th), with the league at 5.4.
The Patriots lead the series 40–16 since 1999. Oct 4, 2026, at Highmark Stadium: the Patriots won 29–26. Josh Allen started at quarterback for the Bills and Drake Maye for the Patriots; Sean McDermott and Mike Vrabel coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | NE 29 at BUF 26 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | BUF 35 at NE 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 5 | NE 23 at BUF 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | BUF 16 at NE 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | NE 21 at BUF 24 |
2025 records
| Bills | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 14–3 |
| Division | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Home | 7–2 | 6–3 |
| Away | 5–3 | 8–0 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WLWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 21.5 | 28.8 – 18.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#2 | -0.09#5 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 49%#2 | 42%#11 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#5 | 4.9#6 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#1 | 8%#6 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#3 | -0.12#6 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#18 | 7%#16 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.07#1 | -0.09#12 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#4 | 3.9#8 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#3 | 36%#7 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#4 | 55%#8 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#20 | 117#4 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 73#2 | 55#20 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#16 | 7.5#20 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#11 | 29#11 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.