2025
Week 5 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · New Era Field
vs
Patriots offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 23–20 from as low as 17% (Q1 6:55, tied 0–0). The Bills had been 77% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:43: J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to K.Coleman [C.Barmore] (45% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:01, 20 points for the Bills.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:01NEA.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD40% → 60%
- 2Q4 0:20NEA.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD72% → 91%
- 3Q3 2:58BUFJ.Allen pass short middle intended for K.Shakir INTERCEPTED by M.Jones at NE 10. M.Jones to NE 10 for no gain (K.Shakir).37% → 54%
- 4Q4 1:25NED.Maye pass deep right to K.Boutte to BUF 39 for 19 yards (C.Bishop) [G.Rousseau].59% → 75%
- 5Q2 0:10NED.Maye pass incomplete short left to S.Diggs. PENALTY on BUF-T.White, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at BUF 12 - No Play.45% → 60%
- ★Q4 2:43BUFJ.Allen pass incomplete deep left to K.Coleman [C.Barmore].turning point45% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Maye led the Patriots at +11.2 EPA (22 of 30 for 273). D.Kincaid led the Bills at +10.2 EPA (6 catches for 108).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 22/30 | 273 | 4 | +9.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson52% | 7 | 32% | 14 | 2 | -0.5 |
| A.Gibson15% | 6 | 27% | 21 | -0.8 | |
| T.Henderson50% | 6 | 27% | 24 | -1.1 | |
| D.Maye100% | 3 | 14% | 12 | +1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Diggs50% | 12 | 43% | 10 | 146 | +10.1 | |
| H.Henry87% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 46 | +1.5 | |
| K.Boutte62% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 43 | +4.7 | |
| D.Douglas28% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 17 | -0.1 | |
| T.Henderson50% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| R.Stevenson52% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 13 | -4.7 | |
| A.Gibson15% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | -0.2 |
Defense M.Jones 1 INT, J.Hawkins 0.5 sacks, M.Williams 0.5 sacks · Kicking A.Borregales 3/3 FG (long 52)
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 22/31 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +10.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook72% | 15 | 52% | 49 | -0.6 | |
| J.Allen100% | 9 | 31% | 53 | -2.5 | |
| T.Johnson18% | 2 | 7% | 10 | +0.1 | |
| R.Davis9% | 2 | 7% | 1 | -0.9 | |
| K.Shakir63% | 1 | 3% | 5 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir63% | 9 | 30% | 6 | 45 | -2.0 | |
| K.Coleman62% | 7 | 23% | 4 | 23 | 1 | -4.5 |
| D.Kincaid54% | 6 | 20% | 6 | 108 | +10.2 | |
| C.Samuel49% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 26 | 1 | +2.9 |
| D.Knox56% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 15 | +1.1 | |
| J.Palmer51% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 36 | +1.8 | |
| J.Cook72% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| T.Shavers25% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense S.Thompson 1 sack, G.Rousseau 1 sack, C.Bishop 1 sack, A.Epenesa 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Prater 2/2 FG (long 45)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Patriots average 4.3 yards per carry (16th). Bills allow 4.9 (30th).
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Bills give up 4.6 targets a game to tight ends (1st), against a league average of 7.3. Patriots' tight ends produce 6.4 (19th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Patriots succeed on 46% of plays (7th) against a defense that allows 43% (13th).
The Patriots lead the series 40–16 since 1999. Oct 4, 2026, at Highmark Stadium: the Patriots won 29–26. Josh Allen started at quarterback for the Bills and Drake Maye for the Patriots; Sean McDermott and Mike Vrabel coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | NE 29 at BUF 26 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | BUF 35 at NE 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 5 | NE 23 at BUF 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | BUF 16 at NE 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | NE 21 at BUF 24 |
2025 records
| Patriots | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 12–5 |
| Division | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–3 | 7–2 |
| Away | 8–0 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | WWWLW |
| Streak | Won 3 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 28.8 – 18.8 | 28.3 – 21.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#5 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#7 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#3 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#4 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#5 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.10#27 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#16 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#13 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#11 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#7 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#14 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.4#19 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#10 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.