2025
Week 5 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · New Era Field
vs
Bills offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bills, 21 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 23–20 from as low as 17% (Q1 6:55, tied 0–0). The Bills had been 77% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:43: J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to K.Coleman [C.Barmore] (45% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:01, 20 points for the Bills.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:01BUFA.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD40% → 60%
- 2Q4 0:20NEA.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD72% → 91%
- 3Q3 2:58NEJ.Allen pass short middle intended for K.Shakir INTERCEPTED by M.Jones at NE 10. M.Jones to NE 10 for no gain (K.Shakir).37% → 54%
- 4Q4 1:25NED.Maye pass deep right to K.Boutte to BUF 39 for 19 yards (C.Bishop) [G.Rousseau].59% → 75%
- 5Q2 0:10NED.Maye pass incomplete short left to S.Diggs. PENALTY on BUF-T.White, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at BUF 12 - No Play.45% → 60%
- ★Q4 2:43NEJ.Allen pass incomplete deep left to K.Coleman [C.Barmore].turning point45% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Maye led the Patriots at +11.2 EPA (22 of 30 for 273). D.Kincaid led the Bills at +10.2 EPA (6 catches for 108).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 22/30 | 273 | 4 | +9.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson52% | 7 | 32% | 14 | 2 | -0.5 |
| A.Gibson15% | 6 | 27% | 21 | -0.8 | |
| T.Henderson50% | 6 | 27% | 24 | -1.1 | |
| D.Maye100% | 3 | 14% | 12 | +1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Diggs50% | 12 | 43% | 10 | 146 | +10.1 | |
| H.Henry87% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 46 | +1.5 | |
| K.Boutte62% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 43 | +4.7 | |
| D.Douglas28% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 17 | -0.1 | |
| T.Henderson50% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| R.Stevenson52% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 13 | -4.7 | |
| A.Gibson15% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | -0.2 |
Defense M.Jones 1 INT, J.Hawkins 0.5 sacks, M.Williams 0.5 sacks · Kicking A.Borregales 3/3 FG (long 52)
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 22/31 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +10.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook72% | 15 | 52% | 49 | -0.6 | |
| J.Allen100% | 9 | 31% | 53 | -2.5 | |
| T.Johnson18% | 2 | 7% | 10 | +0.1 | |
| R.Davis9% | 2 | 7% | 1 | -0.9 | |
| K.Shakir63% | 1 | 3% | 5 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir63% | 9 | 30% | 6 | 45 | -2.0 | |
| K.Coleman62% | 7 | 23% | 4 | 23 | 1 | -4.5 |
| D.Kincaid54% | 6 | 20% | 6 | 108 | +10.2 | |
| C.Samuel49% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 26 | 1 | +2.9 |
| D.Knox56% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 15 | +1.1 | |
| J.Palmer51% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 36 | +1.8 | |
| J.Cook72% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| T.Shavers25% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense S.Thompson 1 sack, G.Rousseau 1 sack, C.Bishop 1 sack, A.Epenesa 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Prater 2/2 FG (long 45)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Patriots give up 55 yards a game to tight ends (20th), against a league average of 53. Bills' tight ends produce 73 (2nd).
Deep middle is open
Patriots are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.32 EPA per attempt. Bills send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Patriots give up 117 yards a game to wide receivers (4th), against a league average of 140. Bills' wide receivers produce 130 (20th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bills gain 6.0 yards per play (5th). Patriots give up 4.9 (6th), with the league at 5.4.
The Patriots lead the series 40–16 since 1999. Oct 4, 2026, at Highmark Stadium: the Patriots won 29–26. Josh Allen started at quarterback for the Bills and Drake Maye for the Patriots; Sean McDermott and Mike Vrabel coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | NE 29 at BUF 26 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | BUF 35 at NE 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 5 | NE 23 at BUF 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | BUF 16 at NE 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | NE 21 at BUF 24 |
2025 records
| Patriots | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 12–5 |
| Division | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–3 | 7–2 |
| Away | 8–0 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | WWWLW |
| Streak | Won 3 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 28.8 – 18.8 | 28.3 – 21.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#2 | -0.09#5 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 49%#2 | 42%#11 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#5 | 4.9#6 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#1 | 8%#6 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#3 | -0.12#6 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#18 | 7%#16 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.07#1 | -0.09#12 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#4 | 3.9#8 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#3 | 36%#7 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#4 | 55%#8 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#20 | 117#4 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 73#2 | 55#20 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#16 | 7.5#20 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#11 | 29#11 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.