2025
Week 15 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Patriots offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 35–31 from as low as 11% (Q2 0:02, down 21–7). The game turned for good at Q4 8:19: J.Allen pass incomplete short right to K.Coleman. PENALTY on NE-C.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NE 47 - No Play (42% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 10:03, 29 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 10:03NET.T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.28% → 57%
- 2Q4 11:22BUFJ.Allen pass deep right to K.Shakir to NE 8 for 37 yards (M.Jones). Penalty on NE-M.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.40% → 63%
- 3Q4 10:10BUFJ.Allen pass short right to D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.54% → 73%
- 4Q4 8:19BUFJ.Allen pass incomplete short right to K.Coleman. PENALTY on NE-C.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NE 47 - No Play.turning point42% → 54%
- 5Q1 13:00NED.Maye pass deep right to K.Boutte to BUF 25 for 30 yards (M.Hairston).40% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Allen led the Bills at +9.0 EPA (19 of 28 for 193). T.Henderson led the Patriots at +8.1 EPA (14 carries for 148).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 19/28 | 193 | 3 | 2 | +9.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook67% | 22 | 59% | 107 | 2 | +4.6 |
| J.Allen100% | 11 | 30% | 48 | -0.5 | |
| T.Johnson26% | 4 | 11% | 13 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir69% | 5 | 19% | 5 | 65 | +4.9 | |
| D.Knox64% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 37 | 2 | +6.6 |
| D.Kincaid36% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 34 | +1.6 | |
| B.Cooks34% | 3 | 12% | 0 | 0 | -1.7 | |
| T.Johnson26% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 15 | -0.7 | |
| J.Cook67% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 4 | 1 | +0.2 |
| J.Palmer33% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 16 | +1.2 | |
| R.Davis9% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 13 | +0.9 | |
| J.Hawes44% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 |
Defense M.Milano 2 sacks, T.White 1 INT, G.Rousseau 1 sack
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 14/23 | 155 | 1 | 3 | -3.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Henderson48% | 14 | 56% | 148 | 2 | +8.3 |
| R.Stevenson67% | 6 | 24% | 50 | +3.0 | |
| D.Maye100% | 4 | 16% | 43 | 2 | +4.4 |
| D.Douglas19% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Hollins79% | 8 | 36% | 4 | 41 | -0.3 | |
| S.Diggs50% | 4 | 18% | 3 | 26 | -1.3 | |
| H.Henry87% | 3 | 14% | 1 | 18 | -0.4 | |
| R.Stevenson67% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 27 | +1.0 | |
| T.Henderson48% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 13 | -0.2 | |
| K.Boutte75% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 30 | +3.1 |
Defense H.III 1 sack, J.Gibbens 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 1/1 FG (long 36)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Patriots average 4.3 yards per carry (16th). Bills allow 4.9 (30th).
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Bills give up 4.6 targets a game to tight ends (1st), against a league average of 7.3. Patriots' tight ends produce 6.4 (19th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Patriots succeed on 46% of plays (7th) against a defense that allows 43% (13th).
The Patriots lead the series 40–16 since 1999. Oct 4, 2026, at Highmark Stadium: the Patriots won 29–26. Josh Allen started at quarterback for the Bills and Drake Maye for the Patriots; Sean McDermott and Mike Vrabel coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | NE 29 at BUF 26 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | BUF 35 at NE 31 |
| 2025 · Wk 5 | NE 23 at BUF 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | BUF 16 at NE 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | NE 21 at BUF 24 |
2025 records
| Bills | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 14–3 |
| Division | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Home | 7–2 | 6–3 |
| Away | 5–3 | 8–0 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WLWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 21.5 | 28.8 – 18.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#5 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#7 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#3 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#4 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#5 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.10#27 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#16 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#13 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#11 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#7 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#14 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.4#19 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#10 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.