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2025 season · Jan 10 to Jan 12 · 6 games · byes: ARI, ATL, BAL, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, IND, KC, LV, MIA, MIN, NO, NYG, NYJ, SEA, TB, TEN, WAS

Wild Card in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

6 of 6 final
The short version
  • Best offenseThe Bills: +0.24 EPA a play against the Jaguars, +0.11 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Texans held the Steelers to −0.54 EPA a play, −0.40 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerJordan Love (GB QB): +18.4 EPA, 24/46, 323 yds, 4 TD.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Wild Card
Games final6 of 6
Overtime0
Comebacks0
Upsets0
Points0
Biggest swing–
LARams34CARPanthers31
Finalwin probability arrives with the next build
GBPackers27CHIBears31
Finalwin probability arrives with the next build
BUFBills27JAXJaguars24
Finalwin probability arrives with the next build
SF49ers23PHIEagles19
Finalwin probability arrives with the next build
LACChargers3NEPatriots16
Finalwin probability arrives with the next build
HOUTexans30PITSteelers6
Finalwin probability arrives with the next build

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. No final games with win probability yet.
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1SF49ers · Q1 14:27 · vs PHI · Demarcus RobinsonB.Purdy pass deep middle to D.Robinson to PHI 16 for 61 yards.+5.1EPA
  2. 2HOUTexans · Q3 0:44 · vs PIT · Christian KirkC.Stroud pass deep right to C.Kirk ran ob at PIT 36 for 46 yards.+4.8EPA
  3. 3CHIBears · Q4 5:37 · vs GB · Rome OdunzeC.Williams pass deep left to R.Odunze pushed ob at GB 30 for 27 yards [I.McDuffie].+4.3EPA
  4. 4CARPanthers · Q2 0:44 · vs LA · Bryce YoungB.Young scrambles right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.0EPA
  5. 5PHIEagles · Q2 6:13 · vs SF · Dallas GoedertJ.Hurts pass short right to D.Goedert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+3.9EPA
  6. 6GBPackers · Q2 3:33 · vs CHI · Christian WatsonJ.Love pass short right to C.Watson to CHI 1 for 22 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by GB-R.Doubs at CHI 1.+3.9EPA
  7. 7CHIBears · Q4 1:48 · vs GB · DJ MooreC.Williams pass deep left to D.Moore for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+3.7EPA
  8. 8GBPackers · Q2 6:51 · vs CHI · Jayden ReedJ.Love pass deep left to J.Reed for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+3.7EPA
  9. 9CARPanthers · Q3 0:33 · vs LA · Jalen CokerB.Young pass deep middle to J.Coker pushed ob at LA 9 for 52 yards.+3.6EPA
  10. 10HOUTexans · Q1 11:17 · vs PIT · Christian KirkC.Stroud pass deep left to C.Kirk to PIT 49 for 36 yards.+3.6EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1BUFBillsat JAX · W 27–24+0.24+0.11 vs usual
2GBPackersat CHI · L 27–31+0.22+0.10 vs usual
3LARamsat CAR · W 34–31+0.12−0.03 vs usual
4CHIBearsvs GB · W 31–27+0.11+0.03 vs usual
5SF49ersat PHI · W 23–19+0.10+0.05 vs usual
6HOUTexansat PIT · W 30–6+0.09+0.13 vs usual
7JAXJaguarsvs BUF · L 24–27+0.03−0.00 vs usual
8NEPatriotsvs LAC · W 16–3−0.02−0.11 vs usual
9PHIEaglesvs SF · L 19–23−0.04−0.07 vs usual
10CARPanthersvs LA · L 31–34−0.07−0.03 vs usual
11LACChargersat NE · L 3–16−0.25−0.23 vs usual
12PITSteelersvs HOU · L 6–30−0.54−0.57 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 110Jordan LoveGB vs CHI · 24/46, 323 yds, 4 TD+18.4
  2. 217Josh AllenBUF vs JAX · 28/35, 273 yds, 1 TD · 11-33 rush+14.8
  3. 318Caleb WilliamsCHI vs GB · 24/48, 361 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT · 4-20 rush+9.8
  4. 413Brock PurdySF vs PHI · 18/31, 262 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT · 9-24 rush+4.8
  5. 59Matthew StaffordLA vs CAR · 24/42, 304 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT+3.5
  6. 610Drake MayeNE vs LAC · 17/29, 268 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · 10-66 rush+2.1
  7. 72Mason RudolphPIT vs HOU · 1/1, 2 yds+1.3
  8. 81Jalen HurtsPHI vs SF · 20/35, 168 yds, 1 TD · 5-14 rush−0.9
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 11Travis EtienneJAX vs BUF · 10 car, 67 yds · 5-49 rec+7.3
  2. 238Rhamondre StevensonNE vs LAC · 10 car, 53 yds · 3-75 rec+5.3
  3. 323Kyren WilliamsLA vs CAR · 13 car, 57 yds · 2-18 rec+4.6
  4. 423Christian McCaffreySF vs PHI · 15 car, 48 yds · 6-66 rec+4.2
  5. 527Woody MarksHOU vs PIT · 19 car, 112 yds, 1 TD+3.8
  6. 644Kyle JuszczykSF vs PHI · 0 car, 0 yds · 4-49 rec+3.3
  7. 733Bhayshul TutenJAX vs BUF · 4 car, 51 yds+3.2
  8. 84D'Andre SwiftCHI vs GB · 13 car, 54 yds, 1 TD · 2-38 rec+2.9
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 117Josh AllenBUF vs JAX · QB30.2*
  2. 210Jordan LoveGB vs CHI · QB30.0*
  3. 312Puka NacuaLA vs CAR · WR24.5*
  4. 423Christian McCaffreySF vs PHI · RB23.4*
  5. 59Matthew StaffordLA vs CAR · QB22.2*
  6. 69Bryce YoungCAR vs LA · QB21.0*
  7. 718Caleb WilliamsCHI vs GB · QB20.4*
  8. 813Christian KirkHOU vs PIT · WR20.4*
  9. 918Jalen CokerCAR vs LA · WR19.4*
  10. 1016Trevor LawrenceJAX vs BUF · QB19.4*
  11. 1110Drake MayeNE vs LAC · QB19.3*
  12. 1287Romeo DoubsGB vs CHI · WR18.4*
  13. 1330Chuba HubbardCAR vs LA · RB17.9*
  14. 141Travis EtienneJAX vs BUF · RB17.6*
  15. 1527Woody MarksHOU vs PIT · RB17.2*
  16. 165Demarcus RobinsonSF vs PHI · WR17.1*
  1. 117Josh AllenBUF vs JAX · QB30.2*
  2. 210Jordan LoveGB vs CHI · QB30.0*
  3. 312Puka NacuaLA vs CAR · WR29.5*
  4. 423Christian McCaffreySF vs PHI · RB26.4*
  5. 513Christian KirkHOU vs PIT · WR24.4*
  6. 618Jalen CokerCAR vs LA · WR23.9*
  7. 787Romeo DoubsGB vs CHI · WR22.4*
  8. 89Matthew StaffordLA vs CAR · QB22.2*
  9. 99Bryce YoungCAR vs LA · QB21.0*
  10. 1018Caleb WilliamsCHI vs GB · QB20.4*
  11. 1111Parker WashingtonJAX vs BUF · WR20.4*
  12. 121Travis EtienneJAX vs BUF · RB20.1*
  13. 135Demarcus RobinsonSF vs PHI · WR20.1*
  14. 1416Trevor LawrenceJAX vs BUF · QB19.4*
  15. 1510Drake MayeNE vs LAC · QB19.3*
  16. 1630Chuba HubbardCAR vs LA · RB18.9*
  1. 112Puka NacuaLA vs CAR · WR34.5*
  2. 217Josh AllenBUF vs JAX · QB30.2*
  3. 310Jordan LoveGB vs CHI · QB30.0*
  4. 423Christian McCaffreySF vs PHI · RB29.4*
  5. 518Jalen CokerCAR vs LA · WR28.4*
  6. 613Christian KirkHOU vs PIT · WR28.4*
  7. 787Romeo DoubsGB vs CHI · WR26.4*
  8. 811Parker WashingtonJAX vs BUF · WR23.9*
  9. 95Demarcus RobinsonSF vs PHI · WR23.1*
  10. 101Travis EtienneJAX vs BUF · RB22.6*
  11. 119Matthew StaffordLA vs CAR · QB22.2*
  12. 1284Colston LovelandCHI vs GB · TE21.7*
  13. 139Bryce YoungCAR vs LA · QB21.0*
  14. 1418Caleb WilliamsCHI vs GB · QB20.4*
  15. 1510Khalil ShakirBUF vs JAX · WR20.2*
  16. 1630Chuba HubbardCAR vs LA · RB19.9*
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 113Christian KirkHOU vs PIT · 8/9, 144 yds, 1 TD+13.5
  2. 287Romeo DoubsGB vs CHI · 8/11, 124 yds, 1 TD+13.0
  3. 35Demarcus RobinsonSF vs PHI · 6/7, 111 yds, 1 TD+8.3
  4. 40Matthew GoldenGB vs CHI · 4/5, 84 yds, 1 TD+7.8
  5. 52DJ MooreCHI vs GB · 6/7, 64 yds, 1 TD+6.9
  6. 618Jalen CokerCAR vs LA · 9/12, 134 yds, 1 TD+5.6
  7. 79Christian WatsonGB vs CHI · 3/7, 36 yds, 1 TD+4.6
  8. 84Tetairoa McMillanCAR vs LA · 5/7, 81 yds+4.1
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 185Hunter HenryNE vs LAC · 3/5, 64 yds, 1 TD+6.4
  2. 284Colston LovelandCHI vs GB · 8/15, 137 yds+4.7
  3. 384Colby ParkinsonLA vs CAR · 2/3, 34 yds, 1 TD+3.3
  4. 486Oronde Gadsden IILAC vs NE · 3/3, 30 yds+2.9
  5. 588Dallas GoedertPHI vs SF · 4/7, 33 yds, 1 TD+1.8
  6. 686Dalton KincaidBUF vs JAX · 3/5, 28 yds, 1 TD+1.5
  7. 787Cade StoverHOU vs PIT · 2/2, 13 yds+0.7
  8. 882Tommy TrembleCAR vs LA · 3/3, 22 yds+0.6

Lines for 6 games are counted from the play-by-play because nflverse's weekly stats for them haven't posted yet. Their fantasy points (marked *) leave out fumbles and two-point tries until the stats arrive, usually by the next morning.

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 19 · against his own season0 played

Week 19: 0 players took a snap; no snap share moved past the floor.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

Nobody moved far on this board.

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

Nobody moved far on this board.

EPAthe week against his per-game average

Nobody moved far on this board.

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.