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2025 season · Oct 16 to Oct 20 · 15 games · byes: BAL, BUF

Week 7 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

15 of 15 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Bengals beat the Steelers 33–31 as a 28% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Broncos were down to 1% against the Giants and won 33–32.
  • WildestSteelers at Bengals: the lead changed hands 3 times; the Bengals won 33–31, and the biggest swing was 39 points at Q4 2:31.
  • Best offenseThe Colts: +0.44 EPA a play against the Chargers, +0.38 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Chiefs held the Raiders to −0.67 EPA a play, −0.67 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerPatrick Mahomes (KC QB): +21.9 EPA, 26/35, 286 yds, 3 TD · 4-28 rush.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 7
Games final15 of 15
Overtime0
Comebacks2
Upsets3
Points679
Biggest swing39 pts
PITSteelers31CINBengals33
Biggest swing 39 pts · Q4 2:31
Upset · 28% at kickoffComeback from 9%
LARams35JAXJaguars7
Biggest swing 6 pts · Q1 8:01
Led all the way
NOSaints14CHIBears26
Biggest swing 13 pts · Q1 13:01
Led all the way
MIADolphins6CLEBrowns31
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q2 11:28
LVRaiders0KCChiefs31
Biggest swing 10 pts · Q1 9:31
Led all the way
PHIEagles28MINVikings22
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q2 13:35
Led all the way
CARPanthers13NYJJets6
Biggest swing 10 pts · Q3 3:56
Upset · 46% at kickoff
NEPatriots31TENTitans13
Biggest swing 11 pts · Q2 0:55
NYGGiants32DENBroncos33
Biggest swing 38 pts · Q4 0:49
Comeback from 1%
INDColts38LACChargers24
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q2 15:00
Upset · 44% at kickoff
GBPackers27ARICardinals23
Biggest swing 22 pts · Q4 2:32
WASCommanders22DALCowboys44
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q1 4:38
ATLFalcons10SF49ers20
Biggest swing 17 pts · Q4 8:20
TBBuccaneers9DETLions24
Biggest swing 9 pts · Q1 7:49
Led all the way
HOUTexans19SEASeahawks27
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q3 7:33
Led all the way

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. 1PITSteelers · Q4 2:31 · PIT at CINA.Rodgers pass deep left to P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+3919% → 58%
  2. 2NYGGiants · Q4 0:49 · NYG at DENJ.Dart pass incomplete deep right to B.Collins. PENALTY on DEN-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at DEN 40 - No Play.…+3838% → 76%
  3. 3DENBroncos · Q4 0:02 · NYG at DENW.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD+3565% → 100%
  4. 4CINBengals · Q4 0:11 · PIT at CINE.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD+3349% → 82%
  5. 5NYGGiants · Q4 1:08 · NYG at DENJ.Dart pass deep left to W.Robinson to NYG 45 for 19 yards (J.McMillian). PENALTY on DEN-J.Franklin-Myers, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced…+3213% → 45%
  6. 6CINBengals · Q4 0:03 · PIT at CINA.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left (D.Ivey).+2674% → 100%
  7. 7DENBroncos · Q4 2:14 · NYG at DENB.Nix pass deep right to M.Mims pushed ob at NYG 38 for 31 yards (A.Phillips).+2427% → 51%
  8. 8GBPackers · Q4 2:32 · GB at ARIJ.Love pass short left to T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-J.Sweat has returned to the game.+2342% → 65%
  9. 9GBPackers · Q4 5:58 · GB at ARIJ.Brissett up the middle to ARI 48 for no gain (I.McDuffie).+2132% → 53%
  10. 10DENBroncos · Q4 0:18 · NYG at DENB.Nix pass deep left to C.Sutton to NYG 21 for 22 yards (D.Banks).+2048% → 68%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1PHIEagles · Q3 8:17 · vs MIN · DeVonta SmithF.J.Hurts pass deep middle to D.Smith for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.6EPA
  2. 2PHIEagles · Q1 7:07 · vs MIN · A.J. BrownJ.Hurts pass deep left to A.Brown for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.4EPA
  3. 3DETLions · Q2 6:01 · vs TB · Jahmyr GibbsJ.Gibbs up the middle for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.2EPA
  4. 4PITSteelers · Q4 2:31 · vs CIN · Pat FreiermuthA.Rodgers pass deep left to P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.1EPA
  5. 5NYGGiants · Q4 10:22 · vs DEN · Theo JohnsonJ.Dart pass short middle to T.Johnson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.0EPA
  6. 6DALCowboys · Q1 4:38 · vs WAS · CeeDee LambD.Prescott pass deep middle to C.Lamb for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.4EPA
  7. 7LARams · Q4 11:19 · vs JAX · Terrance FergusonM.Stafford pass deep right to T.Ferguson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.9EPA
  8. 8INDColts · Q2 11:51 · vs LAC · Alec PierceD.Jones pass deep left to A.Pierce to LAC 25 for 48 yards.+4.9EPA
  9. 9PITSteelers · Q1 13:50 · vs CIN · DK MetcalfA.Rodgers pass deep right to D.Metcalf pushed ob at CIN 31 for 39 yards.+4.3EPA
  10. 10NEPatriots · Q2 0:55 · vs TEN · Kayshon BoutteD.Maye pass deep middle to K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.2EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1INDColtsat LAC · W 38–24+0.44+0.38 vs usual
2PITSteelersat CIN · L 31–33+0.37+0.39 vs usual
3CINBengalsvs PIT · W 33–31+0.33+0.36 vs usual
4PHIEaglesat MIN · W 28–22+0.28+0.27 vs usual
5NEPatriotsat TEN · W 31–13+0.27+0.19 vs usual
6KCChiefsvs LV · W 31–0+0.23+0.21 vs usual
7NYGGiantsat DEN · L 32–33+0.12+0.12 vs usual
8LARamsat JAX · W 35–7+0.12−0.02 vs usual
9GBPackersat ARI · W 27–23+0.12−0.00 vs usual
10DALCowboysvs WAS · W 44–22+0.100.00 vs usual
11CHIBearsvs NO · W 26–14+0.09+0.02 vs usual
12LACChargersvs IND · L 24–38+0.09+0.13 vs usual
13DENBroncosvs NYG · W 33–32+0.08+0.06 vs usual
14SF49ersvs ATL · W 20–10+0.03−0.03 vs usual
15ARICardinalsvs GB · L 23–27−0.05−0.04 vs usual
16CARPanthersat NYJ · W 13–6−0.06−0.02 vs usual
17CLEBrownsvs MIA · W 31–6−0.08+0.12 vs usual
18MINVikingsvs PHI · L 22–28−0.09+0.03 vs usual
19ATLFalconsat SF · L 10–20−0.11−0.10 vs usual
20DETLionsvs TB · W 24–9−0.12−0.22 vs usual
21JAXJaguarsvs LA · L 7–35−0.16−0.21 vs usual
22WASCommandersat DAL · L 22–44−0.22−0.24 vs usual
23SEASeahawksvs HOU · W 27–19−0.25−0.31 vs usual
24NYJJetsvs CAR · L 6–13−0.26−0.14 vs usual
25TENTitansvs NE · L 13–31−0.28−0.13 vs usual
26NOSaintsat CHI · L 14–26−0.30−0.22 vs usual
27HOUTexansat SEA · L 19–27−0.31−0.30 vs usual
28TBBuccaneersat DET · L 9–24−0.42−0.44 vs usual
29MIADolphinsat CLE · L 6–31−0.56−0.58 vs usual
30LVRaidersat KC · L 0–31−0.67−0.47 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 115Patrick MahomesKC vs LV · 26/35, 286 yds, 3 TD · 4-28 rush+21.9
  2. 21Jalen HurtsPHI vs MIN · 19/23, 326 yds, 3 TD · 4--10 rush+18.4
  3. 316Joe FlaccoCIN vs PIT · 31/47, 342 yds, 3 TD · 5-3 rush+15.7
  4. 48Aaron RodgersPIT vs CIN · 23/34, 249 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT+13.6
  5. 510Drake MayeNE vs TEN · 21/23, 222 yds, 2 TD · 8-62 rush+13.1
  6. 617Daniel JonesIND vs LAC · 23/34, 288 yds, 2 TD · 5-7 rush+11.9
  7. 76Jaxson DartNYG vs DEN · 15/33, 283 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 5-11 rush+10.0
  8. 810Justin HerbertLAC vs IND · 37/55, 420 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT · 6-31 rush+9.5
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 123Christian McCaffreySF vs ATL · 24 car, 129 yds, 2 TD · 7-72 rec+13.4
  2. 20Jahmyr GibbsDET vs TB · 17 car, 136 yds, 2 TD · 3-82 rec+13.2
  3. 328Jonathan TaylorIND vs LAC · 16 car, 94 yds, 3 TD · 3-38 rec+10.7
  4. 430Jaylen WarrenPIT vs CIN · 16 car, 127 yds · 4-31 rec+6.6
  5. 54D'Andre SwiftCHI vs NO · 19 car, 124 yds, 1 TD · 1-14 rec+5.5
  6. 628Tyler BadieDEN vs NYG · 0 car, 0 yds · 2-19 rec+2.5
  7. 71Travis EtienneJAX vs LA · 8 car, 44 yds · 1-11 rec+2.4
  8. 829Kareem HuntKC vs LV · 4 car, 18 yds+2.2
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 110Bo NixDEN vs NYG · QB40.0
  2. 20Jahmyr GibbsDET vs TB · RB33.8
  3. 323Christian McCaffreySF vs ATL · RB32.1
  4. 428Jonathan TaylorIND vs LAC · RB31.2
  5. 56Jaxson DartNYG vs DEN · QB28.4
  6. 610Justin HerbertLAC vs IND · QB27.9
  7. 79Matthew StaffordLA vs JAX · QB27.4
  8. 810Quinshon JudkinsCLE vs MIA · RB26.4
  9. 915Patrick MahomesKC vs LV · QB26.2
  10. 1016Joe FlaccoCIN vs PIT · QB26.0
  11. 116DeVonta SmithPHI vs MIN · WR24.3
  12. 1211A.J. BrownPHI vs MIN · WR24.1
  13. 131Jalen HurtsPHI vs MIN · QB24.0
  14. 144Dak PrescottDAL vs WAS · QB23.3
  15. 1510Drake MayeNE vs TEN · QB23.1
  16. 1688Pat FreiermuthPIT vs CIN · TE23.1
  1. 110Bo NixDEN vs NYG · QB40.0
  2. 223Christian McCaffreySF vs ATL · RB35.6
  3. 30Jahmyr GibbsDET vs TB · RB35.3
  4. 428Jonathan TaylorIND vs LAC · RB32.7
  5. 51Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs PIT · WR30.1
  6. 66DeVonta SmithPHI vs MIN · WR28.8
  7. 76Jaxson DartNYG vs DEN · QB28.4
  8. 810Justin HerbertLAC vs IND · QB27.9
  9. 99Matthew StaffordLA vs JAX · QB27.4
  10. 1010Quinshon JudkinsCLE vs MIA · RB26.4
  11. 1115Patrick MahomesKC vs LV · QB26.2
  12. 1211A.J. BrownPHI vs MIN · WR26.1
  13. 1316Joe FlaccoCIN vs PIT · QB26.0
  14. 1486Oronde Gadsden IILAC vs IND · TE25.9
  15. 1588Pat FreiermuthPIT vs CIN · TE25.6
  16. 1685Trey McBrideARI vs GB · TE24.4
  1. 110Bo NixDEN vs NYG · QB40.0
  2. 223Christian McCaffreySF vs ATL · RB39.1
  3. 31Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs PIT · WR38.1
  4. 40Jahmyr GibbsDET vs TB · RB36.8
  5. 528Jonathan TaylorIND vs LAC · RB34.2
  6. 66DeVonta SmithPHI vs MIN · WR33.3
  7. 785Trey McBrideARI vs GB · TE29.4
  8. 886Oronde Gadsden IILAC vs IND · TE29.4
  9. 913Keenan AllenLAC vs IND · WR28.9
  10. 106Jaxson DartNYG vs DEN · QB28.4
  11. 1111A.J. BrownPHI vs MIN · WR28.1
  12. 1288Pat FreiermuthPIT vs CIN · TE28.1
  13. 1310Justin HerbertLAC vs IND · QB27.9
  14. 149Matthew StaffordLA vs JAX · QB27.4
  15. 1512Chris OlaveNO vs CHI · WR26.8
  16. 1617Davante AdamsLA vs JAX · WR26.5
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 111A.J. BrownPHI vs MIN · 4/6, 121 yds, 2 TD+14.5
  2. 26DeVonta SmithPHI vs MIN · 9/11, 183 yds, 1 TD+10.2
  3. 312Chris OlaveNO vs CHI · 5/7, 98 yds, 2 TD+8.5
  4. 41Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs PIT · 16/23, 161 yds, 1 TD+8.4
  5. 55Tee HigginsCIN vs PIT · 6/10, 96 yds, 1 TD+7.3
  6. 63Jordan AddisonMIN vs PHI · 9/12, 128 yds+7.2
  7. 717Chimere DikeTEN vs NE · 4/4, 70 yds, 1 TD+6.6
  8. 813Keenan AllenLAC vs IND · 11/14, 119 yds, 1 TD+6.6
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 188Pat FreiermuthPIT vs CIN · 5/6, 111 yds, 2 TD+9.4
  2. 282Daniel BellingerNYG vs DEN · 3/4, 88 yds, 1 TD+7.2
  3. 386Oronde Gadsden IILAC vs IND · 7/9, 164 yds, 1 TD+7.0
  4. 485Trey McBrideARI vs GB · 10/13, 74 yds, 2 TD+6.9
  5. 586Dalton SchultzHOU vs SEA · 9/10, 98 yds+6.2
  6. 684Tyler WarrenIND vs LAC · 4/5, 69 yds, 1 TD+6.1
  7. 786Noah FantCIN vs PIT · 4/4, 44 yds, 1 TD+5.9
  8. 883Juwan JohnsonNO vs CHI · 5/7, 79 yds+4.0

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 7 · against his own season385 played

The biggest swing in snaps in Week 7: Jacoby Brissett (Cardinals) took 100% of the snaps, up 65 points on his season; Marcus Mariota (Commanders) fell to 31% from 100.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

▲ Climbers
7Jacoby BrissettARI · QB+65 pts35% → 100%6Anthony GouldIND · WR+62 pts3% → 65%11Van JeffersonTEN · WR+51 pts34% → 85%86Blake WhiteheartCLE · TE+50 pts11% → 61%87Michael MayerLV · TE+45 pts49% → 94%
▼ Fallers
8Marcus MariotaWAS · QB−69 pts100% → 31%82Casey WashingtonATL · WR−59 pts76% → 17%13Mike EvansTB · WR−58 pts78% → 20%88Jake TongesSF · TE−57 pts69% → 12%7Justin FieldsNYJ · QB−46 pts92% → 46%

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

▲ Climbers
6DeVonta SmithPHI · WR+27 pts21% → 48%1Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · WR+22 pts29% → 51%17Xavier LegetteCAR · WR+21 pts14% → 36%85Tucker KraftGB · TE+19 pts16% → 36%1Tre TuckerLV · WR+17 pts18% → 35%
▼ Fallers
13Mike EvansTB · WR−21 pts29% → 8%10Cooper KuppSEA · WR−16 pts20% → 4%88Jake TongesSF · TE−14 pts14% → 0%83Darren WallerMIA · TE−14 pts14% → 0%16Isaiah BondCLE · WR−12 pts12% → 0%

EPAthe week against his per-game average

▲ Climbers
16Joe FlaccoCIN · QB+25.3 EPA-10.1 → +15.11Jalen HurtsPHI · QB+19.3 EPA-0.4 → +18.923Christian McCaffreySF · RB+14.6 EPA-1.1 → +13.411A.J. BrownPHI · WR+14.2 EPA+0.3 → +14.50Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB+13.5 EPA-0.3 → +13.2
▼ Fallers
6Baker MayfieldTB · QB−32.7 EPA+7.7 → -25.01Tua TagovailoaMIA · QB−26.4 EPA+2.9 → -23.58Marcus MariotaWAS · QB−19.4 EPA+5.4 → -14.116Jared GoffDET · QB−18.1 EPA+9.5 → -8.67C.J. StroudHOU · QB−16.3 EPA+2.7 → -13.5
New faces18Jalen CokerCAR · WR · debut, 37% of the snaps86Blake WhiteheartCLE · TE · first start-level week, 61% of the snaps17Braxton BerriosHOU · WR · debut, 47% of the snaps6Anthony GouldIND · WR · first start-level week, 65% of the snaps4Rashee RiceKC · WR · debut, 41% of the snaps85George KittleSF · TE · first start-level week, 81% of the snaps12Robbie ChosenWAS · WR · debut, 49% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.