2025
Week 7 · Sunday 9:30 AM ET · TIAA Bank Stadium
vs
Rams offensevsJaguars defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Rams, 18 for Jaguars. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Rams won 35–7 and were favored the whole way, never below 60%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 8:01, 6 points for the Rams.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 8:01LAM.Stafford pass short right to K.Williams ran ob at JAX 7 for 9 yards (M.Brown).68% → 74%
- 2Q1 13:46JAXT.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to P.Washington (D.Williams, B.Fiske).62% → 67%
- 3Q1 14:53JAXT.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -2 yards (J.Verse).60% → 64%
- 4Q1 6:43LAM.Stafford pass short middle to K.Mumpfield for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.73% → 77%
- 5Q1 10:03LAM.Stafford pass short right to T.Higbee to JAX 23 for 9 yards (E.Murray).70% → 73%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Stafford led the Rams at +8.4 EPA (21 of 33 for 182). T.Etienne led the Jaguars at +2.4 EPA (8 carries for 44).
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford96% | 21/33 | 182 | 5 | +8.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams60% | 12 | 41% | 54 | +0.7 | |
| B.Corum34% | 12 | 41% | 37 | -2.1 | |
| J.Garoppolo4% | 3 | 10% | -3 | 0.0 | |
| M.Stafford96% | 2 | 7% | 1 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Adams59% | 8 | 24% | 5 | 35 | 3 | +1.2 |
| T.Higbee37% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 19 | -1.5 | |
| J.Whittington60% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 9 | -1.1 | |
| C.Parkinson47% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 47 | +3.7 | |
| K.Williams60% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 11 | +0.6 | |
| X.Smith47% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 15 | -0.3 | |
| T.Ferguson49% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 31 | 1 | +3.7 |
| D.Allen51% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | +0.4 | |
| B.Corum34% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.3 | |
| K.Mumpfield40% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1.7 |
Defense N.Landman 1.5 sacks, B.Young 1.5 sacks, L.Murchison 1 sack, Q.Lake 1 sack
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence100% | 23/48 | 296 | 1 | 7 | -13.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne55% | 8 | 42% | 44 | +3.0 | |
| B.Tuten29% | 5 | 26% | 22 | +0.1 | |
| P.Washington88% | 3 | 16% | 10 | +1.4 | |
| T.Lawrence100% | 2 | 11% | 18 | -1.7 | |
| T.Hunter87% | 1 | 5% | 0 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Hunter87% | 14 | 30% | 8 | 101 | 1 | +2.3 |
| P.Washington88% | 10 | 21% | 4 | 52 | -2.3 | |
| B.Jr.66% | 7 | 15% | 3 | 31 | -2.2 | |
| J.Mundt38% | 4 | 9% | 1 | 9 | -1.8 | |
| D.Brown30% | 4 | 9% | 2 | 50 | -1.9 | |
| T.Etienne55% | 3 | 6% | 1 | 11 | -0.6 | |
| H.Long60% | 3 | 6% | 2 | 16 | +0.4 | |
| T.Patrick19% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 22 | +1.7 | |
| L.Jr.21% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 4 | 0.0 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking C.Little 0/1 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Rams take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (3rd). Jaguars get home on 5% (30th). League average is 7%.
Deep right is open
Jaguars are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.42 EPA per attempt. Rams send 12% of their throws there.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Jaguars give up 32 yards a game to running backs (20th), against a league average of 32. Rams' running backs produce 21 (30th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Rams create explosive plays on 12% of snaps (6th). Jaguars give them up at 8% (3rd).
The Rams lead the series 5–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). They have won the last 4. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 7 | LA 35 at JAX 7 |
| 2021 · Wk 13 | JAX 7 at LA 37 |
| 2017 · Wk 6 | LA 27 at JAX 17 |
| 2013 · Wk 5 | JAX 20 at LA 34 |
| 2009 · Wk 6 · OT | LA 20 at JAX 23 |
2025 records
| Rams | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 13–4 |
| Division | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Home | 7–1 | 7–2 |
| Away | 5–4 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | WWLLW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 8 |
| Points a game | 30.5 – 20.4 | 27.9 – 19.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Rams' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors JAX | JAX def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#1 | -0.09#6 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 51%#1 | 42%#8 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.3#1 | 5.1#8 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#6 | 8%#3 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.22#2 | -0.12#4 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#3 | 5%#30 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.04#4 | -0.07#16 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#2 | 3.7#4 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 42%#21 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 65%#7 | 64%#24 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 192#2 | 143#18 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 69#4 | 59#23 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 8.7#31 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#30 | 32#20 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
Jaguars: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.