2025
Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Soldier Field
vs
Saints offensevsBears defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Saints, 19 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 26–14 and were favored the whole way, never below 60%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 13:01, 13 points for the Bears.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 13:01NOS.Rattler sacked at NO 23 for -2 yards (M.Sweat). FUMBLES (M.Sweat) [M.Sweat], RECOVERED by CHI-G.Dexter at NO 24.60% → 74%
- 2Q1 3:00NOB.Grupe 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right64% → 74%
- 3Q2 11:20NOS.Rattler pass short middle intended for M.Tipton INTERCEPTED by N.Wright at CHI 32. N.Wright ran ob at NO 30 for 38 yards (S.Rattler).77% → 84%
- 4Q3 9:47NOS.Rattler pass short left to C.Olave for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.10% → 16%
- 5Q2 9:10CHID.Swift right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.85% → 91%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Olave led the Saints at +8.5 EPA (5 catches for 98). D.Swift led the Bears at +5.5 EPA (19 carries for 124).
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Rattler100% | 20/32 | 233 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -12.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Kamara84% | 11 | 65% | 28 | -4.6 | |
| T.Hill16% | 2 | 12% | -4 | -0.2 | |
| S.Rattler100% | 2 | 12% | 12 | +1.6 | |
| K.Miller4% | 1 | 6% | 7 | +0.2 | |
| D.Neal12% | 1 | 6% | 1 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Shaheed77% | 9 | 29% | 4 | 40 | -4.6 | |
| J.Johnson71% | 7 | 23% | 5 | 79 | +4.0 | |
| C.Olave84% | 7 | 23% | 5 | 98 | 2 | +8.5 |
| A.Kamara84% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 1 | -0.4 | |
| T.Hill16% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 12 | -0.5 | |
| B.Cooks70% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.1 | |
| J.Stoll21% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -3.6 | |
| M.Tipton11% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -5.4 |
Defense Q.Riley 1 INT, C.Young 0.5 sacks, B.Bresee 0.5 sacks · Kicking B.Grupe 0/1 FG
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 15/26 | 172 | 1 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift54% | 19 | 48% | 124 | 1 | +4.5 |
| K.Monangai45% | 13 | 33% | 81 | 1 | +1.9 |
| C.Williams100% | 4 | 10% | -2 | -6.2 | |
| D.Moore87% | 1 | 3% | 9 | +0.7 | |
| O.Zaccheaus52% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -0.7 | |
| R.Johnson1% | 1 | 3% | 11 | +1.0 | |
| L.III28% | 1 | 3% | -1 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Odunze94% | 6 | 24% | 2 | 31 | +0.3 | |
| D.Moore87% | 5 | 20% | 3 | 43 | -0.1 | |
| C.Loveland67% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 24 | +3.5 | |
| O.Zaccheaus52% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 9 | -1.4 | |
| K.Monangai45% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 13 | +0.0 | |
| L.III28% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 22 | +0.8 | |
| D.Swift54% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 14 | +1.0 | |
| C.Kmet41% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 16 | +1.2 |
Defense T.Edmunds 1 sack and 1 INT, K.Byard 1 INT, N.Wright 1 INT, M.Sweat 1 sack · Kicking J.Moody 4/4 FG (long 39)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Bears give up 163 yards a game to wide receivers (26th), against a league average of 140. Saints' wide receivers produce 146 (15th).
Deep middle is open
Bears are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Saints send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Bears give up 27 yards a game to running backs (6th), against a league average of 32. Saints' running backs produce 25 (24th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Saints succeed on 42% of plays (25th) against a defense that allows 46% (25th).
The Saints lead the series 11–6 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 7 | NO 14 at CHI 26 |
| 2023 · Wk 9 | CHI 17 at NO 24 |
| 2020 · Wk 18 · playoffs | CHI 9 at NO 21 |
| 2020 · Wk 8 · OT | NO 26 at CHI 23 |
| 2019 · Wk 7 | NO 36 at CHI 25 |
2025 records
| Saints | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 11–6 |
| Division | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Home | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Away | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | LWWLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 18.0 – 22.5 | 25.9 – 24.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Saints' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NO off | Favors NO · Favors CHI | CHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#27 | +0.03#21 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#25 | 46%#25 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#27 | 5.9#27 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 6%#32 | 12%#29 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#27 | +0.05#19 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#22 | 6%#23 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.15#31 | -0.03#19 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#31 | 4.7#29 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#19 | 41%#15 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 43%#32 | 59%#17 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 146#15 | 163#26 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 60#9 | 52#14 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#15 | 7.4#18 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#24 | 27#6 | 32 | |
Saints: EPA per throw
Bears: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.