2025
Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Soldier Field
vs
Bears offensevsSaints defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bears, 17 for Saints. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 26–14 and were favored the whole way, never below 60%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 13:01, 13 points for the Bears.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 13:01CHIS.Rattler sacked at NO 23 for -2 yards (M.Sweat). FUMBLES (M.Sweat) [M.Sweat], RECOVERED by CHI-G.Dexter at NO 24.60% → 74%
- 2Q1 3:00CHIB.Grupe 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right64% → 74%
- 3Q2 11:20CHIS.Rattler pass short middle intended for M.Tipton INTERCEPTED by N.Wright at CHI 32. N.Wright ran ob at NO 30 for 38 yards (S.Rattler).77% → 84%
- 4Q3 9:47NOS.Rattler pass short left to C.Olave for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.10% → 16%
- 5Q2 9:10CHID.Swift right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.85% → 91%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Olave led the Saints at +8.5 EPA (5 catches for 98). D.Swift led the Bears at +5.5 EPA (19 carries for 124).
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Rattler100% | 20/32 | 233 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -12.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Kamara84% | 11 | 65% | 28 | -4.6 | |
| T.Hill16% | 2 | 12% | -4 | -0.2 | |
| S.Rattler100% | 2 | 12% | 12 | +1.6 | |
| K.Miller4% | 1 | 6% | 7 | +0.2 | |
| D.Neal12% | 1 | 6% | 1 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Shaheed77% | 9 | 29% | 4 | 40 | -4.6 | |
| J.Johnson71% | 7 | 23% | 5 | 79 | +4.0 | |
| C.Olave84% | 7 | 23% | 5 | 98 | 2 | +8.5 |
| A.Kamara84% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 1 | -0.4 | |
| T.Hill16% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 12 | -0.5 | |
| B.Cooks70% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.1 | |
| J.Stoll21% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -3.6 | |
| M.Tipton11% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -5.4 |
Defense Q.Riley 1 INT, C.Young 0.5 sacks, B.Bresee 0.5 sacks · Kicking B.Grupe 0/1 FG
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 15/26 | 172 | 1 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift54% | 19 | 48% | 124 | 1 | +4.5 |
| K.Monangai45% | 13 | 33% | 81 | 1 | +1.9 |
| C.Williams100% | 4 | 10% | -2 | -6.2 | |
| D.Moore87% | 1 | 3% | 9 | +0.7 | |
| O.Zaccheaus52% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -0.7 | |
| R.Johnson1% | 1 | 3% | 11 | +1.0 | |
| L.III28% | 1 | 3% | -1 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Odunze94% | 6 | 24% | 2 | 31 | +0.3 | |
| D.Moore87% | 5 | 20% | 3 | 43 | -0.1 | |
| C.Loveland67% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 24 | +3.5 | |
| O.Zaccheaus52% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 9 | -1.4 | |
| K.Monangai45% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 13 | +0.0 | |
| L.III28% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 22 | +0.8 | |
| D.Swift54% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 14 | +1.0 | |
| C.Kmet41% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 16 | +1.2 |
Defense T.Edmunds 1 sack and 1 INT, K.Byard 1 INT, N.Wright 1 INT, M.Sweat 1 sack · Kicking J.Moody 4/4 FG (long 39)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Saints give up 7.4 targets a game to tight ends (17th), against a league average of 7.3. Bears' tight ends produce 8.9 (5th).
Deep middle is open
Saints are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.24 EPA per attempt. Bears send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Saints give up 24 yards a game to running backs (3rd), against a league average of 32. Bears' running backs produce 29 (17th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bears gain 5.7 yards per play (10th). Saints give up 5.0 (7th), with the league at 5.4.
The Saints lead the series 11–6 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 7 | NO 14 at CHI 26 |
| 2023 · Wk 9 | CHI 17 at NO 24 |
| 2020 · Wk 18 · playoffs | CHI 9 at NO 21 |
| 2020 · Wk 8 · OT | NO 26 at CHI 23 |
| 2019 · Wk 7 | NO 36 at CHI 25 |
2025 records
| Saints | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 11–6 |
| Division | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Home | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Away | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | LWWLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 18.0 – 22.5 | 25.9 – 24.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Saints' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors NO | NO def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.07#8 | -0.06#10 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#11 | 42%#7 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#10 | 5.0#7 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#5 | 9%#16 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.09#9 | -0.05#12 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#2 | 8%#7 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#6 | -0.12#4 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#10 | 3.9#9 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#6 | 36%#4 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#17 | 55%#11 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 143#16 | 122#6 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 70#3 | 51#13 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#5 | 7.4#17 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#17 | 24#3 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Saints: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.