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2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium

Patriots offensevsTitans defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 17 for Titans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

NE offense TEN offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · NE 31 · TEN 13

The Patriots won 31–13; their low point was 48% at Q2 14:41. The game turned for good at Q2 14:41: T.Spears right end to NE 43 for 1 yard (C.Elliss; C.Davis). PENALTY on TEN-J.Latham, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 44 - No Play (48% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:55, 11 points for the Patriots.

At kickoffNE 74%NE by 6.5 on the line

NE low point48%Q2 14:41 · down 10⁠–⁠3

Swings past 50%2times the favorite changed

Biggest swing11 ptsNE · Q2 0:55

TEN wins50%NE wins

12345Turning pointNE low 48%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q2 0:55NED.Maye pass deep middle to K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.68% → 79%+11
2Q2 1:53TENJ.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD31% → 39%+9
3Q2 4:07TENC.Ward pass short middle to V.Jefferson to NE 42 for 15 yards (C.Gonzalez).32% → 39%+7
4Q2 8:52NED.Maye pass short left to K.Boutte pushed ob at TEN 33 for 16 yards (R.McCreary).56% → 62%+6
5Q3 13:51NED.Maye pass deep middle to S.Diggs to NE 38 for 24 yards (X.Woods; R.McCreary).78% → 84%+6
★Q2 14:41NET.Spears right end to NE 43 for 1 yard (C.Elliss; C.Davis). PENALTY on TEN-J.Latham, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 44 - No Play.turning point48% → 51%+3

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 7

D.Maye led the Patriots at +13.1 EPA (21 of 23 for 222). C.Dike led the Titans at +5.8 EPA (4 catches for 70).

Patriots

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
D.Maye85%	21/23	222	2		4	+9.8
J.Dobbs15%	1/1	12				+1.8

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
R.Stevenson75%	18	50%	88	1	+1.9
D.Maye85%	8	22%	62		+3.4
T.Jennings14%	5	14%	18		+0.6
J.Dobbs15%	2	6%	-2		-1.8
T.Henderson14%	2	6%	5		-0.6
M.Hollins66%	1	3%	4		-0.2

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
S.Diggs54%	7	29%	7	69		+4.3
H.Henry68%	5	21%	4	33		+1.0
D.Douglas23%	3	13%	3	17		+3.6
A.Hooper51%	2	8%	2	11	1	+1.6
M.Hollins66%	2	8%	2	49		+3.7
R.Stevenson75%	2	8%	2	0		-1.6
K.Boutte71%	2	8%	2	55	1	+6.0
K.Williams18%	1	4%	0	0		-1.5

Defense K.Chaisson 2 sacks, M.Jones 1 INT, H.III 1 sack, M.Williams 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 1/1 FG (long 36)

Titans

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
C.Ward100%	25/34	255	1	1	5	-11.7

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
T.Pollard57%	6	50%	18	-1.6
T.Spears43%	5	42%	22	-0.4
C.Dike57%	1	8%	-1	-0.8

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
T.Pollard57%	6	19%	6	43		+1.8
E.Ayomanor96%	5	16%	2	29		-1.1
G.Helm53%	5	16%	4	36		+2.1
V.Jefferson85%	4	13%	4	41		+3.6
T.Spears43%	4	13%	3	18		-2.0
C.Dike57%	4	13%	4	70	1	+6.6
T.Lockett26%	2	6%	2	18		+0.7
C.Okonkwo60%	2	6%	0	0		-5.7

Defense J.Ward 1 sack, X.Woods 1 sack, D.Jones 1 sack, T.Sweat 1 sack · Kicking J.Slye 2/2 FG (long 50)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Throw it

Patriots gain +0.17 EPA per dropback (5th). Titans allow +0.17 (29th).

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Titans are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.30 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Pressure problem

Patriots take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (29th). Titans get home on 8% (9th). League average is 7%.

Wash

Success rate

Call this one even. Patriots succeed on 46% of plays (7th) against a defense that allows 45% (22nd).

The series · Patriots and Titans since 1999, and this season's records13 meetings

The Patriots lead the series 9–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). This game is the latest meeting.

Patriots at home6–1the Patriots' record

In Tennessee3–3the Patriots' record

Most pointsPatriots 59 · Titans 342009 · 2018

Biggest winPatriots by 59 · Titans by 242009 · 2018

Playoffs2–1the Patriots' record

The last 5

2025 · Wk 7	NE 31 at TEN 13
2024 · Wk 9 · OT	NE 17 at TEN 20
2021 · Wk 12	TEN 13 at NE 36
2019 · Wk 18 · playoffs	TEN 20 at NE 13
2018 · Wk 10	NE 10 at TEN 34

2025 records

	Patriots	Titans
Overall	14–3	3–14
Division	5–1	0–6
Conference	9–3	2–10
Other conference	5–0	1–4
Home	6–3	1–8
Away	8–0	2–6
Last 5	WLWWW	WLWLL
Streak	Won 3	Lost 2
Points a game	28.8 – 18.8	16.7 – 28.1

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · NE offense against TEN defense

Stat	NE off	TEN def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	+0.09#5	+0.10#28	+0.01
Success rate	46%#7	45%#22	44%
Yards per play	6.1#3	6.0#28	5.4
Explosive play rate	12%#4	11%#22	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	+0.17#5	+0.17#29	+0.01
Sack rate	10%#29	8%#9	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.10#27	-0.02#22	-0.05
Yards per carry	4.3#16	4.2#18	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	41%#13	42%#19	40%
Red zone TD rate	61%#11	67%#31	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	160#7	166#28	140
TE yards per game	56#14	56#21	53
TE targets per game	6.4#19	7.1#15	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	36#10	27#7	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Patriots: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.8610% of throws

+0.615% of throws

+0.759% of throws

Short

+0.2630% of throws

+0.2318% of throws

+0.2528% of throws

Titans: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.6335 throws

+1.3020 throws

+1.0041 throws