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2025 season · Dec 18 to Dec 22 · 16 games

Week 16 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

16 of 16 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Steelers beat the Lions 29–24 as a 26% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Seahawks were down to 1% against the Rams and won 38–37.
  • WildestBuccaneers at Panthers: the lead changed hands 4 times; the Panthers won 23–20, and the biggest swing was 34 points at Q4 0:49.
  • Best offenseThe Chargers: +0.45 EPA a play against the Cowboys, +0.51 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Vikings held the Giants to −0.38 EPA a play, −0.29 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerMatthew Stafford (LA QB): +25.6 EPA, 29/49, 457 yds, 3 TD.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 16
Games final16 of 16
Overtime2
Comebacks5
Upsets6
Points785
Biggest swing34 pts
LARams37SEASeahawks38
Biggest swing 25 pts · Q4 2:11
Comeback from 1%Overtime
PHIEagles29WASCommanders18
Biggest swing 16 pts · Q3 3:33
GBPackers16CHIBears22
Biggest swing 22 pts · Q4 0:28
Comeback from 3%Overtime
TBBuccaneers20CARPanthers23
Biggest swing 34 pts · Q4 0:49
Upset · 40% at kickoffComeback from 16%
BUFBills23CLEBrowns20
Biggest swing 11 pts · Q4 5:08
Led all the way
LACChargers34DALCowboys17
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q3 14:13
Upset · 46% at kickoff
CINBengals45MIADolphins21
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q1 2:35
NYJJets6NOSaints29
Biggest swing 9 pts · Q3 0:47
Led all the way
MINVikings16NYGGiants13
Biggest swing 18 pts · Q2 0:25
KCChiefs9TENTitans26
Biggest swing 11 pts · Q2 1:43
Upset · 38% at kickoff
ATLFalcons26ARICardinals19
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q3 5:23
JAXJaguars34DENBroncos20
Biggest swing 13 pts · Q3 4:55
Upset · 37% at kickoff
PITSteelers29DETLions24
Biggest swing 32 pts · Q4 0:08
Upset · 26% at kickoffComeback from 14%
LVRaiders21HOUTexans23
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q3 9:53
Led all the way
NEPatriots28BALRavens24
Biggest swing 22 pts · Q4 3:02
Upset · 39% at kickoffComeback from 9%
SF49ers48INDColts27
Biggest swing 13 pts · Q2 14:19
Led all the way

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. 1CARPanthers · Q4 0:49 · TB at CARB.Mayfield pass short left intended for M.Evans INTERCEPTED by L.Ransom at CAR 30. L.Ransom to CAR 35 for 5 yards.+3461% → 95%
  2. 2PITSteelers · Q4 0:08 · PIT at DETJ.Goff pass short left to A.St. Brown to PIT 8 for 1 yard. Lateral to J.Goff for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DET-A.St.…+3268% → 100%
  3. 3SEASeahawks · Q4 2:11 · LA at SEAH.Mevis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right+2543% → 68%
  4. 4LARams · Q3 6:44 · LA at SEAS.Darnold pass short left intended for R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by J.Wallace at LA 43. J.Wallace to SEA 1 for 56 yards (K.Walker).+2454% → 78%
  5. 5DETLions · Q4 2:09 · PIT at DETC.Boswell 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright+2313% → 36%
  6. 6CHIBears · Q4 0:28 · GB at CHIC.Williams pass short right to J.Walker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2216% → 38%
  7. 7NEPatriots · Q4 3:02 · NE at BALD.Maye pass short left to S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (M.Starks).+2223% → 45%
  8. 8NEPatriots · Q4 2:15 · NE at BALT.R.Stevenson right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2149% → 70%
  9. 9LARams · Q4 2:41 · LA at SEAM.Stafford pass deep left to T.Ferguson to SEA 46 for 27 yards (T.Okada). PENALTY on SEA-T.Okada, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 46.+2048% → 68%
  10. 10SEASeahawks · Q3 13:06 · LA at SEAK.Walker right guard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+1937% → 56%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1LVRaiders · Q3 9:53 · vs HOU · Ashton JeantyG.Smith pass deep left to A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.4EPA
  2. 2NOSaints · Q4 2:00 · vs NYJ · Chris OlaveDirect snap to T.Hill. T.Hill pass deep middle to C.Olave for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.1EPA
  3. 3PITSteelers · Q2 0:11 · vs DET · Kenneth GainwellA.Rodgers pass deep right to K.Gainwell for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN [D.Reader]. Penalty on DET-A.Anzalone, Defensive…+5.5EPA
  4. 4LARams · Q3 0:13 · vs SEA · Puka NacuaM.Stafford pass deep middle to P.Nacua to SEA 4 for 58 yards.+5.4EPA
  5. 5JAXJaguars · Q3 4:55 · vs DEN · Parker WashingtonT.Lawrence pass short right to P.Washington to DEN 10 for 63 yards.+4.9EPA
  6. 6LVRaiders · Q4 5:34 · vs HOU · Ashton JeantyA.Jeanty up the middle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.8EPA
  7. 7DETLions · Q4 8:45 · vs PIT · Kalif RaymondJ.Goff pass short right to K.Raymond for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.7EPA
  8. 8LARams · Q3 12:07 · vs SEA · Xavier SmithM.Stafford pass deep middle to X.Smith to SEA 24 for 48 yards.+4.6EPA
  9. 9MIADolphins · Q1 2:35 · vs CIN · De'Von AchaneD.Achane left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.5EPA
  10. 10CHIBears · Q5 4:57 · vs GB · DJ MooreC.Williams pass deep left to D.Moore for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.5EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1LACChargersat DAL · W 34–17+0.45+0.51 vs usual
2SF49ersat IND · W 48–27+0.40+0.36 vs usual
3CINBengalsat MIA · W 45–21+0.37+0.40 vs usual
4PHIEaglesat WAS · W 29–18+0.29+0.29 vs usual
5LARamsat SEA · L 37–38+0.24+0.11 vs usual
6NEPatriotsat BAL · W 28–24+0.22+0.14 vs usual
7PITSteelersat DET · W 29–24+0.21+0.23 vs usual
8TBBuccaneersat CAR · L 20–23+0.11+0.12 vs usual
9BALRavensvs NE · L 24–28+0.11+0.08 vs usual
10DETLionsvs PIT · L 24–29+0.10+0.02 vs usual
11CHIBearsvs GB · W 22–16+0.10+0.03 vs usual
12CARPanthersvs TB · W 23–20+0.10+0.15 vs usual
13JAXJaguarsat DEN · W 34–20+0.09+0.06 vs usual
14GBPackersat CHI · L 16–22+0.06−0.07 vs usual
15BUFBillsat CLE · W 23–20+0.06−0.08 vs usual
16ATLFalconsat ARI · W 26–19+0.05+0.08 vs usual
17TENTitansvs KC · W 26–9+0.05+0.22 vs usual
18DALCowboysvs LAC · L 17–34+0.03−0.07 vs usual
19SEASeahawksvs LA · W 38–37+0.03−0.01 vs usual
20ARICardinalsvs ATL · L 19–26−0.00+0.02 vs usual
21NOSaintsvs NYJ · W 29–6−0.01+0.09 vs usual
22DENBroncosvs JAX · L 20–34−0.03−0.07 vs usual
23INDColtsvs SF · L 27–48−0.04−0.12 vs usual
24LVRaidersat HOU · L 21–23−0.04+0.18 vs usual
25MINVikingsat NYG · W 16–13−0.06+0.06 vs usual
26MIADolphinsvs CIN · L 21–45−0.06−0.04 vs usual
27CLEBrownsvs BUF · L 20–23−0.10+0.10 vs usual
28WASCommandersvs PHI · L 18–29−0.13−0.14 vs usual
29HOUTexansvs LV · W 23–21−0.16−0.14 vs usual
30KCChiefsat TEN · L 9–26−0.31−0.36 vs usual
31NYJJetsat NO · L 6–29−0.36−0.25 vs usual
32NYGGiantsvs MIN · L 13–16−0.38−0.41 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 19Matthew StaffordLA vs SEA · 29/49, 457 yds, 3 TD+25.6
  2. 210Justin HerbertLAC vs DAL · 23/29, 300 yds, 2 TD · 8-42 rush+23.1
  3. 313Brock PurdySF vs IND · 25/34, 295 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT+22.7
  4. 49Joe BurrowCIN vs MIA · 25/32, 309 yds, 4 TD+22.6
  5. 54Dak PrescottDAL vs LAC · 21/30, 244 yds, 2 TD+12.6
  6. 616Trevor LawrenceJAX vs DEN · 23/36, 279 yds, 3 TD · 6-20 rush+12.2
  7. 710Drake MayeNE vs BAL · 31/44, 380 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 10-25 rush+11.5
  8. 816Jared GoffDET vs PIT · 34/54, 364 yds, 3 TD+10.8
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 130Chase BrownCIN vs MIA · 12 car, 66 yds, 1 TD · 4-43 rec+8.4
  2. 29Kenneth Walker IIISEA vs LA · 11 car, 100 yds, 1 TD · 3-64 rec+7.2
  3. 34James CookBUF vs CLE · 16 car, 117 yds, 2 TD · 1-17 rec+6.9
  4. 414Kenneth GainwellPIT vs DET · 9 car, 50 yds · 5-78 rec+6.9
  5. 512RJ HarveyDEN vs JAX · 7 car, 50 yds, 1 TD · 4-71 rec+6.2
  6. 623Christian McCaffreySF vs IND · 21 car, 117 yds · 6-29 rec+6.1
  7. 730Jaylen WarrenPIT vs DET · 14 car, 143 yds, 2 TD · 2-8 rec+5.1
  8. 826Saquon BarkleyPHI vs WAS · 21 car, 132 yds, 1 TD+4.9
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 112Puka NacuaLA vs SEA · WR34.5
  2. 216Trevor LawrenceJAX vs DEN · QB31.2
  3. 39Matthew StaffordLA vs SEA · QB30.9
  4. 413Brock PurdySF vs IND · QB30.9
  5. 52Ashton JeantyLV vs HOU · RB30.8
  6. 610Justin HerbertLAC vs DAL · QB30.2
  7. 79Joe BurrowCIN vs MIA · QB29.0
  8. 830Chase BrownCIN vs MIA · RB28.9
  9. 930Jaylen WarrenPIT vs DET · RB27.1
  10. 1012Chris OlaveNO vs NYJ · WR26.8
  11. 1123Christian McCaffreySF vs IND · RB26.6
  12. 1216Jared GoffDET vs PIT · QB26.5
  13. 134James CookBUF vs CLE · RB25.4
  14. 1410Drake MayeNE vs BAL · QB23.7
  15. 157Bijan RobinsonATL vs ARI · RB22.8
  16. 1622Derrick HenryBAL vs NE · RB22.8
  1. 112Puka NacuaLA vs SEA · WR40.5
  2. 212Chris OlaveNO vs NYJ · WR31.8
  3. 32Ashton JeantyLV vs HOU · RB31.3
  4. 416Trevor LawrenceJAX vs DEN · QB31.2
  5. 530Chase BrownCIN vs MIA · RB30.9
  6. 69Matthew StaffordLA vs SEA · QB30.9
  7. 713Brock PurdySF vs IND · QB30.9
  8. 810Justin HerbertLAC vs DAL · QB30.2
  9. 923Christian McCaffreySF vs IND · RB29.6
  10. 109Joe BurrowCIN vs MIA · QB29.0
  11. 1130Jaylen WarrenPIT vs DET · RB28.1
  12. 1216Jared GoffDET vs PIT · QB26.5
  13. 137Bijan RobinsonATL vs ARI · RB26.3
  14. 144James CookBUF vs CLE · RB25.9
  15. 159Kenneth Walker IIISEA vs LA · RB23.9
  16. 1610Drake MayeNE vs BAL · QB23.7
  1. 112Puka NacuaLA vs SEA · WR46.5
  2. 212Chris OlaveNO vs NYJ · WR36.8
  3. 330Chase BrownCIN vs MIA · RB32.9
  4. 423Christian McCaffreySF vs IND · RB32.6
  5. 52Ashton JeantyLV vs HOU · RB31.8
  6. 616Trevor LawrenceJAX vs DEN · QB31.2
  7. 79Matthew StaffordLA vs SEA · QB30.9
  8. 813Brock PurdySF vs IND · QB30.9
  9. 910Justin HerbertLAC vs DAL · QB30.2
  10. 107Bijan RobinsonATL vs ARI · RB29.8
  11. 1130Jaylen WarrenPIT vs DET · RB29.1
  12. 129Joe BurrowCIN vs MIA · QB29.0
  13. 1316Jared GoffDET vs PIT · QB26.5
  14. 1411Parker WashingtonJAX vs DEN · WR26.5
  15. 154James CookBUF vs CLE · RB26.4
  16. 163George PickensDAL vs LAC · WR26.0
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 112Puka NacuaLA vs SEA · 12/16, 225 yds, 2 TD+17.3
  2. 211Parker WashingtonJAX vs DEN · 6/10, 145 yds, 1 TD+14.2
  3. 38Stefon DiggsNE vs BAL · 9/10, 138 yds+12.6
  4. 412Chris OlaveNO vs NYJ · 10/16, 148 yds, 2 TD+11.7
  5. 53George PickensDAL vs LAC · 7/9, 130 yds, 1 TD+10.5
  6. 614Alec PierceIND vs SF · 4/4, 86 yds, 2 TD+9.6
  7. 715Jauan JenningsSF vs IND · 5/6, 71 yds, 1 TD+9.1
  8. 81Quentin JohnstonLAC vs DAL · 4/5, 104 yds, 1 TD+8.7
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 185George KittleSF vs IND · 7/8, 115 yds, 1 TD+9.8
  2. 28Kyle PittsATL vs ARI · 7/9, 57 yds, 1 TD+8.9
  3. 384Elijah HigginsARI vs ATL · 7/8, 91 yds+6.6
  4. 488Dallas GoedertPHI vs WAS · 3/3, 32 yds, 1 TD+5.2
  5. 588Mike GesickiCIN vs MIA · 3/4, 35 yds, 1 TD+4.5
  6. 683Darren WallerMIA vs CIN · 3/5, 40 yds+4.3
  7. 789Brock BowersLV vs HOU · 5/5, 33 yds, 1 TD+4.2
  8. 886Dalton SchultzHOU vs LV · 5/5, 35 yds, 1 TD+3.7

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 16 · against his own season415 played

The biggest swing in snaps in Week 16: Kevin Austin Jr. (Saints) took 86% of the snaps, up 68 points on his season; Joe Flacco (Bengals) fell to 10% from 98.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

▲ Climbers
81Kevin Austin Jr.NO · WR+68 pts18% → 86%2Malik WillisGB · QB+53 pts11% → 64%18Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · WR+48 pts29% → 77%3John Metchie IIINYJ · WR+47 pts39% → 86%30Audric EstiméNO · RB+44 pts14% → 58%
▼ Fallers
16Joe FlaccoCIN · QB−88 pts98% → 10%10Mac JonesSF · QB−76 pts81% → 5%10Jordan LoveGB · QB−62 pts98% → 36%8Dillon GabrielCLE · QB−60 pts62% → 2%8Lamar JacksonBAL · QB−49 pts96% → 47%

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

▲ Climbers
10Isiah PachecoKC · RB+27 pts5% → 32%84Elijah HigginsARI · TE+22 pts5% → 28%17Wan'Dale RobinsonNYG · WR+18 pts28% → 46%85Chig OkonkwoTEN · TE+16 pts14% → 30%10DeAndre HopkinsBAL · WR+16 pts9% → 25%
▼ Fallers
2Emeka EgbukaTB · WR−18 pts26% → 8%22Rashid ShaheedSEA · WR−15 pts19% → 3%14Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WR−14 pts31% → 17%87T.J. HockensonMIN · TE−12 pts17% → 4%86Oronde Gadsden IILAC · TE−12 pts16% → 4%

EPAthe week against his per-game average

▲ Climbers
10Justin HerbertLAC · QB+23.7 EPA+0.1 → +23.79Joe BurrowCIN · QB+20.5 EPA+0.1 → +20.69Matthew StaffordLA · QB+18.2 EPA+7.9 → +26.11Cam WardTEN · QB+14.7 EPA-8.0 → +6.811Parker WashingtonJAX · WR+13.6 EPA+0.6 → +14.2
▼ Fallers
6Jaxson DartNYG · QB−17.4 EPA+0.3 → -17.117Josh AllenBUF · QB−14.8 EPA+6.4 → -8.584Tyler WarrenIND · TE−13.8 EPA+2.0 → -11.88Josh JacobsGB · RB−9.7 EPA+0.9 → -8.822Rashid ShaheedSEA · WR−8.6 EPA+0.3 → -8.3
New faces2Malik WillisGB · QB · first start-level week, 64% of the snaps19Chris OladokunKC · QB · debut, 69% of the snaps14Quinn EwersMIA · QB · first start-level week, 100% of the snaps81Theo Wease Jr.MIA · WR · debut, 36% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.