2025
Week 16 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
vs
Jets offensevsSaints defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Jets, 17 for Saints. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Saints won 29–6 and were favored the whole way, never below 58%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 0:47, 9 points for the Saints.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 0:47NOT.Shough pass deep right to C.Olave for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.83% → 92%
- 2Q2 14:23NOC.Smyth 49 yard field goal is GOOD66% → 74%
- 3Q2 1:01NYJA.McNamara punts 54 yards to NO 9, fair catch by D.Pettis.26% → 34%
- 4Q1 14:39NYJB.Cook pass short right to J.Ruckert pushed ob at NO 33 for 4 yards (C.Jordan).29% → 36%
- 5Q2 15:00NYJT.Shough sacked at NYJ 31 for -10 yards (J.Sherwood).27% → 34%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
I.Davis led the Jets at +2.7 EPA (3 carries for 8). C.Olave led the Saints at +11.7 EPA (10 catches for 148).
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Cook100% | 22/35 | 188 | 1 | 8 | -21.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall64% | 16 | 80% | 54 | -0.2 | |
| I.Davis36% | 3 | 15% | 8 | +0.2 | |
| B.Cook100% | 1 | 5% | 2 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Mitchell86% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 43 | +2.4 | |
| S.Smartt30% | 5 | 15% | 5 | 34 | +0.6 | |
| J.III86% | 5 | 15% | 1 | 4 | -5.6 | |
| I.Williams77% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 25 | +1.1 | |
| I.Davis36% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 52 | +2.5 | |
| J.Ruckert67% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 14 | -1.0 | |
| B.Hall64% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 9 | -1.0 | |
| J.Woods20% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -2.6 | |
| T.Johnson14% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | -0.1 | |
| A.Smith11% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.1 |
Defense J.Sherwood 1 sack, W.IV 1 sack, J.Briggs 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 2/2 FG (long 36)
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Shough97% | 32/49 | 308 | 1 | 3 | +2.7 | |
| T.Hill44% | 1/1 | 38 | 1 | +6.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Hill44% | 12 | 48% | 42 | -7.4 | |
| E.Hull21% | 5 | 20% | 3 | -3.8 | |
| A.Estimé58% | 5 | 20% | 19 | +1.6 | |
| T.Shough97% | 2 | 8% | 8 | -0.3 | |
| M.Tipton50% | 1 | 4% | 12 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave78% | 16 | 34% | 10 | 148 | 2 | +11.7 |
| J.Johnson65% | 9 | 19% | 8 | 89 | +3.5 | |
| T.Hill44% | 6 | 13% | 4 | 36 | +0.8 | |
| M.Tipton50% | 5 | 11% | 4 | 29 | +0.4 | |
| A.Estimé58% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 17 | -0.3 | |
| K.Jr.86% | 3 | 6% | 2 | 18 | 0.0 | |
| J.Stoll29% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.3 | |
| D.Pettis15% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| F.Moreau28% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 5 | -0.3 |
Defense C.Jordan 2 sacks, J.Sanker 1 INT, N.Shepherd 1 sack, J.Williams 1 sack · Kicking C.Smyth 5/6 FG (long 50)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Saints give up 7.4 targets a game to tight ends (17th), against a league average of 7.3. Jets' tight ends produce 6.2 (20th).
Deep middle is open
Saints are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.24 EPA per attempt. Jets send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Saints give up 122 yards a game to wide receivers (6th), against a league average of 140. Jets' wide receivers produce 92 (31st).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Jets create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (28th). Saints give them up at 9% (16th).
The Saints lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 16 | NYJ 6 at NO 29 |
| 2021 · Wk 14 | NO 30 at NYJ 9 |
| 2017 · Wk 15 | NYJ 19 at NO 31 |
| 2013 · Wk 9 | NO 20 at NYJ 26 |
| 2009 · Wk 4 | NYJ 10 at NO 24 |
2025 records
| Jets | Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 6–11 |
| Division | 0–6 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Home | 2–7 | 3–5 |
| Away | 1–7 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWWL |
| Streak | Lost 5 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 17.6 – 29.6 | 18.0 – 22.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jets' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors NO | NO def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.13#29 | -0.06#10 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 40%#29 | 42%#7 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#29 | 5.0#7 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#28 | 9%#16 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#28 | -0.05#12 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#30 | 8%#7 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#28 | -0.12#4 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#15 | 3.9#9 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#27 | 36%#4 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 44%#31 | 55%#11 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 92#31 | 122#6 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#31 | 51#13 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#20 | 7.4#17 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 35#12 | 24#3 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Saints: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.