2025
Week 16 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · FirstEnergy Stadium
vs
Bills offensevsBrowns defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bills, 17 for Browns. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 23–20 and were favored the whole way, never below 67%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 5:08, 11 points for the Bills.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 5:08BUFS.Sanders sacked at CLE 31 for -13 yards (G.Rousseau).81% → 92%
- 2Q1 12:45CLES.Sanders pass short middle to M.Corley to 50 for -6 yards. Lateral to I.Bond pushed ob at BUF 23 for 27 yards (T.White).19% → 28%
- 3Q4 2:53CLEJ.Allen pass incomplete short right to D.Knox.10% → 18%
- 4Q4 7:55CLEJ.Allen sacked at BUF 23 for -13 yards (C.Schwesinger).17% → 25%
- 5Q4 2:01BUFS.Sanders pass incomplete short right [G.Rousseau]. PENALTY on CLE-S.Sanders, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at CLE 15.83% → 91%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Cook led the Bills at +6.9 EPA (16 carries for 117). T.Williams led the Browns at +3.2 EPA (3 carries for 17).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 12/19 | 130 | 2 | -8.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook56% | 16 | 55% | 117 | 2 | +6.1 |
| J.Allen100% | 7 | 24% | 17 | +0.9 | |
| T.Johnson32% | 3 | 10% | 16 | 1 | +2.3 |
| R.Davis16% | 3 | 10% | 14 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir48% | 5 | 28% | 4 | 34 | -1.5 | |
| D.Knox68% | 2 | 11% | 1 | 10 | -3.0 | |
| J.Cook56% | 2 | 11% | 1 | 17 | +0.8 | |
| T.Shavers58% | 2 | 11% | 1 | 21 | -1.5 | |
| R.Davis16% | 2 | 11% | 2 | 20 | +1.7 | |
| J.Hawes64% | 2 | 11% | 2 | 26 | +0.8 | |
| B.Cooks24% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| J.Palmer70% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 | |
| D.Kincaid38% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense G.Rousseau 2.5 sacks, J.Poyer 0.5 sacks and 1 INT, D.Jones 1 INT · Kicking M.Badgley 1/1 FG (long 41)
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Sanders98% | 20/29 | 157 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -11.7 |
| C.Bojorquez | 0/1 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Sanders30% | 11 | 35% | 42 | +1.8 | |
| Q.Judkins39% | 8 | 26% | 22 | -0.7 | |
| S.Sanders98% | 4 | 13% | 49 | +5.1 | |
| T.Williams30% | 3 | 10% | 17 | +1.5 | |
| M.Corley45% | 3 | 10% | 30 | +1.3 | |
| H.Jr.86% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | +0.7 |
| I.Bond48% | 1 | 3% | -1 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Jr.86% | 6 | 22% | 4 | 34 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Q.Judkins39% | 6 | 22% | 5 | 29 | -3.3 | |
| T.Williams30% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 38 | +1.7 | |
| J.Jeudy73% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 12 | +2.3 | |
| M.Corley45% | 4 | 15% | 2 | 11 | -5.1 | |
| C.Tillman47% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | -0.6 | |
| B.Bates42% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| R.Sanders30% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.2 |
Defense C.Schwesinger 1 sack, M.Garrett 0.5 sacks, A.Wright 0.5 sacks · Kicking A.Szmyt 2/2 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Bills score a touchdown on 68% of red zone trips (4th). Browns allow 63% (22nd).
Deep middle is open
Browns are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Bills send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Browns give up 110 yards a game to wide receivers (1st), against a league average of 140. Bills' wide receivers produce 130 (20th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bills gain 6.0 yards per play (5th). Browns give up 4.9 (5th), with the league at 5.4.
The Bills lead the series 7–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 16 | BUF 23 at CLE 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 11 | CLE 23 at BUF 31 |
| 2019 · Wk 10 | BUF 16 at CLE 19 |
| 2016 · Wk 15 | CLE 13 at BUF 33 |
| 2014 · Wk 13 | CLE 10 at BUF 26 |
2025 records
| Bills | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 5–12 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Home | 7–2 | 3–6 |
| Away | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LLLWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 21.5 | 16.4 – 22.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors CLE | CLE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#2 | -0.09#4 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 49%#2 | 40%#4 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#5 | 4.9#5 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#1 | 9%#13 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#3 | -0.13#3 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#18 | 10%#3 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.07#1 | -0.07#15 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#4 | 4.2#17 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#3 | 37%#8 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#4 | 63%#22 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#20 | 110#1 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 73#2 | 52#16 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#16 | 7.1#14 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#11 | 27#8 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Browns: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.