2025
Week 16 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · FirstEnergy Stadium
vs
Browns offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Browns, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 23–20 and were favored the whole way, never below 67%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 5:08, 11 points for the Bills.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 5:08BUFS.Sanders sacked at CLE 31 for -13 yards (G.Rousseau).81% → 92%
- 2Q1 12:45CLES.Sanders pass short middle to M.Corley to 50 for -6 yards. Lateral to I.Bond pushed ob at BUF 23 for 27 yards (T.White).19% → 28%
- 3Q4 2:53CLEJ.Allen pass incomplete short right to D.Knox.10% → 18%
- 4Q4 7:55CLEJ.Allen sacked at BUF 23 for -13 yards (C.Schwesinger).17% → 25%
- 5Q4 2:01BUFS.Sanders pass incomplete short right [G.Rousseau]. PENALTY on CLE-S.Sanders, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at CLE 15.83% → 91%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Cook led the Bills at +6.9 EPA (16 carries for 117). T.Williams led the Browns at +3.2 EPA (3 carries for 17).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 12/19 | 130 | 2 | -8.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook56% | 16 | 55% | 117 | 2 | +6.1 |
| J.Allen100% | 7 | 24% | 17 | +0.9 | |
| T.Johnson32% | 3 | 10% | 16 | 1 | +2.3 |
| R.Davis16% | 3 | 10% | 14 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir48% | 5 | 28% | 4 | 34 | -1.5 | |
| D.Knox68% | 2 | 11% | 1 | 10 | -3.0 | |
| J.Cook56% | 2 | 11% | 1 | 17 | +0.8 | |
| T.Shavers58% | 2 | 11% | 1 | 21 | -1.5 | |
| R.Davis16% | 2 | 11% | 2 | 20 | +1.7 | |
| J.Hawes64% | 2 | 11% | 2 | 26 | +0.8 | |
| B.Cooks24% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| J.Palmer70% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 | |
| D.Kincaid38% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense G.Rousseau 2.5 sacks, J.Poyer 0.5 sacks and 1 INT, D.Jones 1 INT · Kicking M.Badgley 1/1 FG (long 41)
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Sanders98% | 20/29 | 157 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -11.7 |
| C.Bojorquez | 0/1 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Sanders30% | 11 | 35% | 42 | +1.8 | |
| Q.Judkins39% | 8 | 26% | 22 | -0.7 | |
| S.Sanders98% | 4 | 13% | 49 | +5.1 | |
| T.Williams30% | 3 | 10% | 17 | +1.5 | |
| M.Corley45% | 3 | 10% | 30 | +1.3 | |
| H.Jr.86% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | +0.7 |
| I.Bond48% | 1 | 3% | -1 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Jr.86% | 6 | 22% | 4 | 34 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Q.Judkins39% | 6 | 22% | 5 | 29 | -3.3 | |
| T.Williams30% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 38 | +1.7 | |
| J.Jeudy73% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 12 | +2.3 | |
| M.Corley45% | 4 | 15% | 2 | 11 | -5.1 | |
| C.Tillman47% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | -0.6 | |
| B.Bates42% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| R.Sanders30% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.2 |
Defense C.Schwesinger 1 sack, M.Garrett 0.5 sacks, A.Wright 0.5 sacks · Kicking A.Szmyt 2/2 FG (long 41)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Browns' run game is 25th in EPA per carry (-0.09). Bills allow +0.04 (29th).
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Browns send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Bills give up 122 yards a game to wide receivers (7th), against a league average of 140. Browns' wide receivers produce 86 (32nd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Browns create explosive plays on 7% of snaps (30th). Bills give them up at 11% (27th).
The Bills lead the series 7–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 16 | BUF 23 at CLE 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 11 | CLE 23 at BUF 31 |
| 2019 · Wk 10 | BUF 16 at CLE 19 |
| 2016 · Wk 15 | CLE 13 at BUF 33 |
| 2014 · Wk 13 | CLE 10 at BUF 26 |
2025 records
| Bills | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 5–12 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Home | 7–2 | 3–6 |
| Away | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LLLWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 21.5 | 16.4 – 22.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CLE off | Favors CLE · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.19#31 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 35%#32 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.4#32 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#30 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.29#32 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#25 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.09#25 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.6#30 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#29 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#26 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 86#32 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 63#6 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.9#2 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 37#7 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Browns: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.