2025
Week 16 · Saturday 5:00 PM ET · FedExField
vs
Eagles offensevsCommanders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Eagles, 17 for Commanders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Eagles won 29–18; their low point was 49% at Q3 14:28. The game turned for good at Q3 14:28: M.Mariota pass incomplete short right (49% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 3:33, 16 points for the Eagles.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 3:33PHIJ.Hurts pass short right to D.Goedert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.61% → 77%
- 2Q1 14:55WASC.Rodriguez right guard to PHI 23 for 3 yards (M.Ojomo; Z.Baun).28% → 38%
- 3Q2 0:09PHIJ.Elliott 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left38% → 47%
- 4Q3 5:38PHIJ.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to D.Smith. PENALTY on WAS-N.Igbinoghene, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at WAS 20 - No Play.…64% → 72%
- 5Q2 5:14WASA.C.Rodriguez left guard to PHI 1 for 1 yard (Z.Baun).27% → 35%
- ★Q3 14:28WASM.Mariota pass incomplete short right.turning point49% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Hurts led the Eagles at +9.0 EPA (22 of 30 for 185). T.McLaurin led the Commanders at +4.1 EPA (3 catches for 53).
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hurts94% | 22/30 | 185 | 2 | 2 | +7.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Barkley77% | 21 | 62% | 132 | 1 | +6.7 |
| J.Hurts94% | 7 | 21% | 40 | +1.5 | |
| T.Bigsby11% | 4 | 12% | 37 | 1 | +3.2 |
| T.McKee6% | 2 | 6% | -2 | -2.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown87% | 12 | 41% | 9 | 95 | +5.1 | |
| D.Smith86% | 8 | 28% | 6 | 42 | 1 | +3.7 |
| D.Goedert87% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 32 | 1 | +5.2 |
| J.Dotson66% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 13 | -0.3 | |
| S.Barkley77% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -1.8 | |
| W.Shipley11% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -1.7 |
Defense C.DeJean 1 INT, B.Graham 1 sack, B.Young 1 sack · Kicking J.Elliott 0/2 FG
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Mariota59% | 7/14 | 95 | 1 | -3.4 | ||
| J.Johnson41% | 5/9 | 43 | 1 | 1 | -4.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.52% | 15 | 58% | 63 | 1 | +1.6 |
| J.Croskey-Merritt20% | 8 | 31% | 25 | 1 | 0.0 |
| J.Johnson41% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -0.8 | |
| M.Mariota59% | 1 | 4% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| J.McNichols28% | 1 | 4% | 3 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Burks83% | 5 | 25% | 2 | 30 | -6.6 | |
| T.McLaurin83% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 53 | +4.1 | |
| D.Sr.81% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 35 | +2.1 | |
| J.McNichols28% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 9 | -1.6 | |
| B.Sinnott69% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 5 | -1.1 | |
| J.Bates50% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| C.Jr.52% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 6 | +0.5 |
Defense B.Wagner 1 sack, J.Martin 1 sack · Kicking J.Moody 1/1 FG (long 20)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Eagles score a touchdown on 67% of red zone trips (5th). Commanders allow 67% (30th).
Deep middle is open
Commanders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.54 EPA per attempt. Eagles send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Commanders give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (10th), against a league average of 7.3. Eagles' tight ends produce 6.2 (21st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Eagles succeed on 43% of plays (20th) against a defense that allows 48% (27th).
The Eagles lead the series 35–22 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Northwest Stadium: the Commanders won 27–10. Jayden Daniels started at quarterback for the Commanders and Tanner McKee for the Eagles; Dan Quinn and Nick Sirianni coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | PHI 10 at WAS 27 |
| 2026 · Wk 1 | WAS 22 at PHI 24 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | WAS 24 at PHI 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | PHI 29 at WAS 18 |
| 2024 · Wk 21 · playoffs | WAS 23 at PHI 55 |
2025 records
| Eagles | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 5–12 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Away | 6–3 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LWWWL | LWLLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 22.3 – 19.1 | 20.9 – 26.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Eagles' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PHI off | Favors PHI · Favors WAS | WAS def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.02#15 | +0.14#30 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#20 | 48%#27 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#19 | 6.1#30 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#16 | 11%#26 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.04#13 | +0.20#30 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#15 | 7%#12 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#12 | +0.03#28 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#20 | 4.7#28 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#24 | 42%#22 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#5 | 67%#30 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 140#17 | 163#27 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 41#25 | 61#26 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#21 | 6.7#10 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 23#26 | 33#21 | 32 | |
Eagles: EPA per throw
Commanders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.