2025
Week 18 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field
vs
Commanders offensevsEagles defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Commanders, 18 for Eagles. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Commanders won 24–17 from as low as 15% (Q3 1:32, down 14–10). The Eagles had been 60% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 8:37: J.Johnson pass incomplete deep left to T.McLaurin. PENALTY on PHI-K.Ringo, Defensive Pass Interference, 32 yards, enforced at WAS 23 - No Play (46% → 55%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 10:57, 20 points for the Eagles.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 10:57PHIJ.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 37, touched at WAS 30, RECOVERED by PHI-J.Hunt at WAS 28.38% → 57%
- 2Q4 1:21WAST.McKee pass incomplete short left to K.Granson.79% → 98%
- 3Q2 2:00PHIJ.Johnson pass short right intended for D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by J.Hunt at WAS 22. J.Hunt to WAS 22 for no gain (D.Samuel).53% → 68%
- 4Q2 0:59WAST.McKee pass deep left intended for J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by J.Reaves at WAS 1. J.Reaves to WAS 29 for 28 yards (K.Granson).36% → 51%
- 5Q1 2:36PHIJ.Moody 24 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright45% → 57%
- ★Q4 8:37WASJ.Johnson pass incomplete deep left to T.McLaurin. PENALTY on PHI-K.Ringo, Defensive Pass Interference, 32 yards, enforced at WAS 23 - No Play.turning point46% → 55%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.McLaurin led the Commanders at +8.2 EPA (4 catches for 57). T.Bigsby led the Eagles at +3.1 EPA (16 carries for 75).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Johnson100% | 14/22 | 131 | 1 | 1 | +4.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.42% | 16 | 39% | 65 | 1 | +1.7 |
| J.Croskey-Merritt36% | 13 | 32% | 29 | -4.1 | |
| J.Johnson100% | 9 | 22% | 45 | 1 | -3.9 |
| D.Sr.71% | 2 | 5% | 1 | -1.1 | |
| J.McNichols22% | 1 | 2% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Sr.71% | 5 | 26% | 2 | 20 | -6.2 | |
| T.McLaurin70% | 4 | 21% | 4 | 57 | +8.2 | |
| T.Burks68% | 4 | 21% | 2 | 12 | -0.7 | |
| J.Bates59% | 2 | 11% | 2 | 13 | 1 | +3.1 |
| B.Sinnott55% | 2 | 11% | 2 | 3 | -1.0 | |
| J.McNichols22% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 8 | +0.1 | |
| C.Jr.42% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 18 | +1.6 |
Defense J.Reaves 1 INT, V.Miller 1 sack, D.Payne 1 sack, N.Igbinoghene 1 sack · Kicking J.Moody 1/2 FG (long 56)
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McKee100% | 21/40 | 241 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Bigsby59% | 16 | 84% | 75 | 1 | +1.4 |
| T.McKee100% | 2 | 11% | 3 | -1.0 | |
| W.Shipley41% | 1 | 5% | 2 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dotson94% | 8 | 24% | 3 | 40 | -4.6 | |
| K.Granson77% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 30 | -0.5 | |
| D.Cooper84% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 33 | +1.3 | |
| D.Smith14% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 52 | +1.7 | |
| B.Covey55% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 20 | +0.6 | |
| G.Calcaterra44% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 21 | 1 | +0.3 |
| W.Shipley41% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 11 | -1.0 | |
| A.Dillon3% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.1 | |
| T.Bigsby59% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 31 | +1.7 |
Defense J.Hunt 1 INT · Kicking J.Elliott 1/1 FG (long 39)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Commanders average 4.5 yards per carry (9th). Eagles allow 4.1 (12th).
Deep middle is open
Eagles are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Eagles give up 29 yards a game to tight ends (2nd), against a league average of 53. Commanders' tight ends produce 43 (24th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Commanders gain 5.6 yards per play (12th). Eagles give up 5.1 (10th), with the league at 5.4.
The Eagles lead the series 35–22 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Northwest Stadium: the Commanders won 27–10. Jayden Daniels started at quarterback for the Commanders and Tanner McKee for the Eagles; Dan Quinn and Nick Sirianni coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | PHI 10 at WAS 27 |
| 2026 · Wk 1 | WAS 22 at PHI 24 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | WAS 24 at PHI 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | PHI 29 at WAS 18 |
| 2024 · Wk 21 · playoffs | WAS 23 at PHI 55 |
2025 records
| Commanders | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 11–6 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Away | 3–6 | 6–3 |
| Last 5 | LWLLW | LWWWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 26.5 | 22.3 – 19.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | WAS off | Favors WAS · Favors PHI | PHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#17 | -0.07#9 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#9 | 42%#10 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 5.1#10 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 9%#18 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#17 | -0.11#8 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 7%#14 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#11 | -0.10#6 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#9 | 4.1#12 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 43%#23 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#6 | 55%#9 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#18 | 138#17 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 43#24 | 29#2 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#22 | 6.2#6 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 20#31 | 41#28 | 32 | |
Commanders: EPA per throw
Eagles: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.