2025
Week 18 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field
vs
Eagles offensevsCommanders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Eagles, 17 for Commanders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Commanders won 24–17 from as low as 15% (Q3 1:32, down 14–10). The Eagles had been 60% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 8:37: J.Johnson pass incomplete deep left to T.McLaurin. PENALTY on PHI-K.Ringo, Defensive Pass Interference, 32 yards, enforced at WAS 23 - No Play (46% → 55%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 10:57, 20 points for the Eagles.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 10:57PHIJ.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 37, touched at WAS 30, RECOVERED by PHI-J.Hunt at WAS 28.38% → 57%
- 2Q4 1:21WAST.McKee pass incomplete short left to K.Granson.79% → 98%
- 3Q2 2:00PHIJ.Johnson pass short right intended for D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by J.Hunt at WAS 22. J.Hunt to WAS 22 for no gain (D.Samuel).53% → 68%
- 4Q2 0:59WAST.McKee pass deep left intended for J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by J.Reaves at WAS 1. J.Reaves to WAS 29 for 28 yards (K.Granson).36% → 51%
- 5Q1 2:36PHIJ.Moody 24 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright45% → 57%
- ★Q4 8:37WASJ.Johnson pass incomplete deep left to T.McLaurin. PENALTY on PHI-K.Ringo, Defensive Pass Interference, 32 yards, enforced at WAS 23 - No Play.turning point46% → 55%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.McLaurin led the Commanders at +8.2 EPA (4 catches for 57). T.Bigsby led the Eagles at +3.1 EPA (16 carries for 75).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Johnson100% | 14/22 | 131 | 1 | 1 | +4.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.42% | 16 | 39% | 65 | 1 | +1.7 |
| J.Croskey-Merritt36% | 13 | 32% | 29 | -4.1 | |
| J.Johnson100% | 9 | 22% | 45 | 1 | -3.9 |
| D.Sr.71% | 2 | 5% | 1 | -1.1 | |
| J.McNichols22% | 1 | 2% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Sr.71% | 5 | 26% | 2 | 20 | -6.2 | |
| T.McLaurin70% | 4 | 21% | 4 | 57 | +8.2 | |
| T.Burks68% | 4 | 21% | 2 | 12 | -0.7 | |
| J.Bates59% | 2 | 11% | 2 | 13 | 1 | +3.1 |
| B.Sinnott55% | 2 | 11% | 2 | 3 | -1.0 | |
| J.McNichols22% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 8 | +0.1 | |
| C.Jr.42% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 18 | +1.6 |
Defense J.Reaves 1 INT, V.Miller 1 sack, D.Payne 1 sack, N.Igbinoghene 1 sack · Kicking J.Moody 1/2 FG (long 56)
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McKee100% | 21/40 | 241 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Bigsby59% | 16 | 84% | 75 | 1 | +1.4 |
| T.McKee100% | 2 | 11% | 3 | -1.0 | |
| W.Shipley41% | 1 | 5% | 2 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dotson94% | 8 | 24% | 3 | 40 | -4.6 | |
| K.Granson77% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 30 | -0.5 | |
| D.Cooper84% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 33 | +1.3 | |
| D.Smith14% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 52 | +1.7 | |
| B.Covey55% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 20 | +0.6 | |
| G.Calcaterra44% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 21 | 1 | +0.3 |
| W.Shipley41% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 11 | -1.0 | |
| A.Dillon3% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.1 | |
| T.Bigsby59% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 31 | +1.7 |
Defense J.Hunt 1 INT · Kicking J.Elliott 1/1 FG (long 39)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Eagles score a touchdown on 67% of red zone trips (5th). Commanders allow 67% (30th).
Deep middle is open
Commanders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.54 EPA per attempt. Eagles send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Commanders give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (10th), against a league average of 7.3. Eagles' tight ends produce 6.2 (21st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Eagles succeed on 43% of plays (20th) against a defense that allows 48% (27th).
The Eagles lead the series 35–22 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Northwest Stadium: the Commanders won 27–10. Jayden Daniels started at quarterback for the Commanders and Tanner McKee for the Eagles; Dan Quinn and Nick Sirianni coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | PHI 10 at WAS 27 |
| 2026 · Wk 1 | WAS 22 at PHI 24 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | WAS 24 at PHI 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | PHI 29 at WAS 18 |
| 2024 · Wk 21 · playoffs | WAS 23 at PHI 55 |
2025 records
| Commanders | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 11–6 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Away | 3–6 | 6–3 |
| Last 5 | LWLLW | LWWWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 26.5 | 22.3 – 19.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PHI off | Favors PHI · Favors WAS | WAS def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.02#15 | +0.14#30 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#20 | 48%#27 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#19 | 6.1#30 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#16 | 11%#26 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.04#13 | +0.20#30 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#15 | 7%#12 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#12 | +0.03#28 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#20 | 4.7#28 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#24 | 42%#22 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#5 | 67%#30 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 140#17 | 163#27 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 41#25 | 61#26 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#21 | 6.7#10 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 23#26 | 33#21 | 32 | |
Eagles: EPA per throw
Commanders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.