2025
Week 16 · Saturday 5:00 PM ET · FedExField
vs
Commanders offensevsEagles defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Commanders, 18 for Eagles. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Eagles won 29–18; their low point was 49% at Q3 14:28. The game turned for good at Q3 14:28: M.Mariota pass incomplete short right (49% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 3:33, 16 points for the Eagles.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 3:33PHIJ.Hurts pass short right to D.Goedert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.61% → 77%
- 2Q1 14:55WASC.Rodriguez right guard to PHI 23 for 3 yards (M.Ojomo; Z.Baun).28% → 38%
- 3Q2 0:09PHIJ.Elliott 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left38% → 47%
- 4Q3 5:38PHIJ.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to D.Smith. PENALTY on WAS-N.Igbinoghene, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at WAS 20 - No Play.…64% → 72%
- 5Q2 5:14WASA.C.Rodriguez left guard to PHI 1 for 1 yard (Z.Baun).27% → 35%
- ★Q3 14:28WASM.Mariota pass incomplete short right.turning point49% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Hurts led the Eagles at +9.0 EPA (22 of 30 for 185). T.McLaurin led the Commanders at +4.1 EPA (3 catches for 53).
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hurts94% | 22/30 | 185 | 2 | 2 | +7.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Barkley77% | 21 | 62% | 132 | 1 | +6.7 |
| J.Hurts94% | 7 | 21% | 40 | +1.5 | |
| T.Bigsby11% | 4 | 12% | 37 | 1 | +3.2 |
| T.McKee6% | 2 | 6% | -2 | -2.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown87% | 12 | 41% | 9 | 95 | +5.1 | |
| D.Smith86% | 8 | 28% | 6 | 42 | 1 | +3.7 |
| D.Goedert87% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 32 | 1 | +5.2 |
| J.Dotson66% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 13 | -0.3 | |
| S.Barkley77% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -1.8 | |
| W.Shipley11% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -1.7 |
Defense C.DeJean 1 INT, B.Graham 1 sack, B.Young 1 sack · Kicking J.Elliott 0/2 FG
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Mariota59% | 7/14 | 95 | 1 | -3.4 | ||
| J.Johnson41% | 5/9 | 43 | 1 | 1 | -4.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.52% | 15 | 58% | 63 | 1 | +1.6 |
| J.Croskey-Merritt20% | 8 | 31% | 25 | 1 | 0.0 |
| J.Johnson41% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -0.8 | |
| M.Mariota59% | 1 | 4% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| J.McNichols28% | 1 | 4% | 3 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Burks83% | 5 | 25% | 2 | 30 | -6.6 | |
| T.McLaurin83% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 53 | +4.1 | |
| D.Sr.81% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 35 | +2.1 | |
| J.McNichols28% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 9 | -1.6 | |
| B.Sinnott69% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 5 | -1.1 | |
| J.Bates50% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| C.Jr.52% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 6 | +0.5 |
Defense B.Wagner 1 sack, J.Martin 1 sack · Kicking J.Moody 1/1 FG (long 20)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Commanders average 4.5 yards per carry (9th). Eagles allow 4.1 (12th).
Deep middle is open
Eagles are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Eagles give up 29 yards a game to tight ends (2nd), against a league average of 53. Commanders' tight ends produce 43 (24th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Commanders gain 5.6 yards per play (12th). Eagles give up 5.1 (10th), with the league at 5.4.
The Eagles lead the series 35–22 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Northwest Stadium: the Commanders won 27–10. Jayden Daniels started at quarterback for the Commanders and Tanner McKee for the Eagles; Dan Quinn and Nick Sirianni coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | PHI 10 at WAS 27 |
| 2026 · Wk 1 | WAS 22 at PHI 24 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | WAS 24 at PHI 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | PHI 29 at WAS 18 |
| 2024 · Wk 21 · playoffs | WAS 23 at PHI 55 |
2025 records
| Eagles | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 5–12 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Away | 6–3 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LWWWL | LWLLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 22.3 – 19.1 | 20.9 – 26.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Eagles' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | WAS off | Favors WAS · Favors PHI | PHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#17 | -0.07#9 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#9 | 42%#10 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#12 | 5.1#10 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 9%#18 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#17 | -0.11#8 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#20 | 7%#14 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#11 | -0.10#6 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#9 | 4.1#12 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#22 | 43%#23 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#6 | 55%#9 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#18 | 138#17 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 43#24 | 29#2 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#22 | 6.2#6 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 20#31 | 41#28 | 32 | |
Commanders: EPA per throw
Eagles: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.