2025
Week 16 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium
vs
Chiefs offensevsTitans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Chiefs, 17 for Titans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Titans won 26–9; their low point was 35% at Q1 9:58. The Chiefs had been 63% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 2:44: J.Chestnut up the middle to KC 24 for 1 yard (Z.Pickens) (49% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 1:43, 11 points for the Titans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 1:43TENC.Ward pass short middle to C.Okonkwo for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.55% → 66%
- 2Q3 4:05KCC.Oladokun sacked at TEN 11 for -7 yards (J.Harrell). FUMBLES (J.Harrell), recovered by KC-T.Smith at TEN 14.63% → 74%
- 3Q3 5:37KCC.Oladokun pass short right to X.Worthy to TEN 7 for 28 yards (K.Hall).32% → 42%
- 4Q2 13:19TENJ.Hekker punts 46 yards to KC 13 N.Remigio MUFFS catch, recovered by KC-K.Knowles at KC 6. K.Knowles to KC 6 for no gain (D.Mausi). PENALTY on…35% → 45%
- 5Q3 12:14TENC.Ward pass deep left to C.Dike pushed ob at KC 12 for 30 yards (K.Fulton) [C.Omenihu].59% → 68%
- ★Q2 2:44TENJ.Chestnut up the middle to KC 24 for 1 yard (Z.Pickens).turning point49% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
X.Worthy led the Chiefs at +2.6 EPA (2 catches for 41). E.Ayomanor led the Titans at +5.6 EPA (3 catches for 58).
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Oladokun69% | 11/16 | 111 | 4 | -5.8 | ||
| G.Minshew31% | 3/8 | 15 | -5.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I.Pacheco73% | 8 | 53% | 34 | +1.0 | |
| K.Hunt24% | 3 | 20% | 2 | -1.2 | |
| C.Oladokun69% | 2 | 13% | 7 | -1.0 | |
| G.Minshew31% | 1 | 7% | 8 | -0.5 | |
| X.Worthy84% | 1 | 7% | 0 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I.Pacheco73% | 7 | 32% | 6 | 41 | -0.7 | |
| T.Kelce78% | 4 | 18% | 1 | 6 | -3.2 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster91% | 4 | 18% | 1 | 12 | -4.2 | |
| M.Brown53% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 22 | +0.5 | |
| X.Worthy84% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 41 | +3.2 | |
| B.Smith18% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 4 | 0.0 |
Defense N.Bolton 1 sack, C.Conner 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 3/4 FG (long 54)
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 21/28 | 228 | 2 | 2 | +6.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard55% | 21 | 53% | 102 | +0.6 | |
| T.Spears47% | 13 | 33% | 52 | 1 | -0.1 |
| C.Ward100% | 4 | 10% | 9 | -4.2 | |
| J.Chestnut3% | 1 | 3% | 1 | +0.5 | |
| K.Mullings7% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Okonkwo45% | 8 | 30% | 6 | 44 | 1 | +2.6 |
| T.Spears47% | 5 | 19% | 5 | 53 | +3.4 | |
| C.Dike59% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 40 | 1 | +1.5 |
| E.Ayomanor56% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 58 | +5.6 | |
| G.Helm71% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 9 | -3.9 | |
| V.Jefferson68% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 24 | +2.6 |
Defense T.Jones 1.5 sacks, J.Williams 1 sack, J.Harrell 1 sack, J.Ward 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Slye 1/1 FG (long 27)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Chiefs gain +0.04 EPA per dropback (14th). Titans allow +0.17 (29th).
Deep middle is open
Titans are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.30 EPA per attempt. Chiefs send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Titans give up 27 yards a game to running backs (7th), against a league average of 32. Chiefs' running backs produce 25 (25th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Chiefs create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (18th). Titans give them up at 11% (22nd).
The Titans lead the series 9–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 16 | KC 9 at TEN 26 |
| 2022 · Wk 9 · OT | TEN 17 at KC 20 |
| 2021 · Wk 7 | KC 3 at TEN 27 |
| 2019 · Wk 20 · playoffs | TEN 24 at KC 35 |
| 2019 · Wk 10 | KC 32 at TEN 35 |
2025 records
| Chiefs | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 3–14 |
| Division | 1–5 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Home | 5–4 | 1–8 |
| Away | 1–7 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WLWLL |
| Streak | Lost 6 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 19.3 | 16.7 – 28.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chiefs' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | KC off | Favors KC · Favors TEN | TEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#12 | +0.10#28 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#15 | 45%#22 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#20 | 6.0#28 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#18 | 11%#22 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.04#14 | +0.17#29 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 8%#9 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#15 | -0.02#22 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#26 | 4.2#18 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#23 | 42%#19 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#19 | 67%#31 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 147#14 | 166#28 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#8 | 56#21 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.6#7 | 7.1#15 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#25 | 27#7 | 32 | |
Chiefs: EPA per throw
Titans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.