2025
Week 16 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Jaguars offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Jaguars, 19 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 34–20; their low point was 26% at Q2 11:26. The Broncos had been 63% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 9:55: T.Lawrence pass short left to P.Washington ran ob at DEN 24 for 20 yards (P.Locke) (47% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 4:55, 13 points for the Jaguars.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 4:55JAXT.Lawrence pass short right to P.Washington to DEN 10 for 63 yards (P.Locke; A.Singleton).71% → 83%
- 2Q2 11:26JAXL.Cooke punts 63 yards to DEN 25 M.Mims to DEN 32 for 7 yards (V.Miller).26% → 38%
- 3Q1 5:15JAXW.Lutz 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright ** Injury Update: JAX-G.Newsome has returned to the game.32% → 43%
- 4Q2 12:51DENB.Nix pass short right to C.Sutton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.50% → 59%
- 5Q3 9:55JAXT.Lawrence pass short left to P.Washington ran ob at DEN 24 for 20 yards (P.Locke).turning point47% → 57%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
P.Washington led the Jaguars at +14.2 EPA (6 catches for 145). R.Harvey led the Broncos at +6.2 EPA (7 carries for 50).
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence100% | 23/36 | 279 | 3 | 5 | +9.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne70% | 16 | 59% | 50 | -4.3 | |
| T.Lawrence100% | 6 | 22% | 20 | 1 | +3.1 |
| L.Jr.30% | 4 | 15% | 10 | -1.4 | |
| J.Meyers86% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Washington56% | 10 | 29% | 6 | 145 | 1 | +14.2 |
| J.Meyers86% | 8 | 23% | 4 | 45 | -0.7 | |
| B.Strange74% | 7 | 20% | 5 | 39 | 1 | +1.0 |
| T.Etienne70% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 16 | 1 | -0.6 |
| B.Jr.73% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 18 | +0.8 | |
| T.Patrick26% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +0.6 | |
| Q.Morris27% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 |
Defense J.Jones 1 INT, B.II 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 2/2 FG (long 47)
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 28/47 | 352 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Harvey59% | 7 | 41% | 50 | 1 | +2.5 |
| J.McLaughlin15% | 5 | 29% | 37 | +1.6 | |
| B.Nix100% | 4 | 24% | 11 | -6.4 | |
| M.Jr.32% | 1 | 6% | 3 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Sutton94% | 12 | 26% | 6 | 86 | 1 | +0.8 |
| P.Bryant64% | 8 | 17% | 5 | 42 | -0.3 | |
| T.Franklin64% | 5 | 11% | 4 | 66 | +2.9 | |
| R.Harvey59% | 5 | 11% | 4 | 71 | +3.7 | |
| E.Engram44% | 4 | 9% | 2 | 36 | +0.4 | |
| A.Trautman58% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 14 | -1.0 | |
| T.Badie23% | 3 | 7% | 1 | 2 | -3.0 | |
| M.Jr.32% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 26 | -1.6 | |
| L.Humphrey20% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +1.3 | |
| N.Adkins11% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense J.Franklin-Myers 2 sacks, D.Jones 1 sack, M.Roach 1 sack, R.Moss 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 2/3 FG (long 54)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Broncos give up 128 yards a game to wide receivers (11th), against a league average of 140. Jaguars' wide receivers produce 164 (6th).
Deep right is open
Broncos are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.40 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Broncos give up 21 yards a game to running backs (2nd), against a league average of 32. Jaguars' running backs produce 27 (23rd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Jaguars average +0.03 EPA per play (13th). Broncos allow -0.08 (8th). League average is +0.01.
The Jaguars lead the series 7–6 since 1999. Sep 20, 2026, at Empower Field at Mile High: the Broncos won 20–13. Bo Nix started at quarterback for the Broncos and Trevor Lawrence for the Jaguars; Sean Payton and Liam Coen coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | JAX 13 at DEN 20 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | JAX 34 at DEN 20 |
| 2022 · Wk 8 | DEN 21 at JAX 17 |
| 2021 · Wk 2 | DEN 23 at JAX 13 |
| 2019 · Wk 4 | JAX 26 at DEN 24 |
2025 records
| Jaguars | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13–4 | 14–3 |
| Division | 5–1 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 10–2 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Home | 7–2 | 8–1 |
| Away | 6–2 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WWLWW |
| Streak | Won 8 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 27.9 – 19.8 | 23.6 – 18.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jaguars' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | JAX off | Favors JAX · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#13 | -0.08#8 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#13 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#15 | 4.5#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#12 | 7%#1 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.06#11 | -0.11#7 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#17 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#14 | -0.09#10 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#23 | 3.6#3 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#14 | 36%#5 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#9 | 45%#2 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 164#6 | 128#11 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 44#23 | 60#24 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.1#23 | 8.3#26 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#23 | 21#2 | 32 | |
Jaguars: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.