Down x Down

This week

Explore

DOWN X DOWN › matchups › Week 6 in review
Season over · final
2025
2026this season2025final
2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

2025 season · Oct 9 to Oct 13 · 15 games · byes: HOU, MIN

Week 6 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

15 of 15 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Giants beat the Eagles 34–17 as a 26% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Bears were down to 11% against the Commanders and won 25–24.
  • WildestChargers at Dolphins: the lead changed hands 6 times; the Chargers won 29–27, and the biggest swing was 33 points at Q4 0:34.
  • Best offenseThe Buccaneers: +0.29 EPA a play against the 49ers, +0.32 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Broncos held the Jets to −0.42 EPA a play, −0.36 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerDak Prescott (DAL QB): +17.0 EPA, 25/34, 261 yds, 3 TD.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 6
Games final15 of 15
Overtime0
Comebacks3
Upsets4
Points632
Biggest swing40 pts
PHIEagles17NYGGiants34
Biggest swing 22 pts · Q4 11:36
Upset · 26% at kickoffComeback from 20%
DENBroncos13NYJJets11
Biggest swing 22 pts · Q4 1:14
LARams17BALRavens3
Biggest swing 14 pts · Q1 1:29
DALCowboys27CARPanthers30
Biggest swing 26 pts · Q4 2:31
Upset · 39% at kickoffComeback from 22%
ARICardinals27INDColts31
Biggest swing 36 pts · Q4 0:58
SEASeahawks20JAXJaguars12
Biggest swing 19 pts · Q2 8:42
LACChargers29MIADolphins27
Biggest swing 33 pts · Q4 0:34
NEPatriots25NOSaints19
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q2 0:38
Led all the way
CLEBrowns9PITSteelers23
Biggest swing 7 pts · Q1 14:55
Led all the way
TENTitans10LVRaiders20
Biggest swing 9 pts · Q2 6:12
Led all the way
CINBengals18GBPackers27
Biggest swing 8 pts · Q3 4:50
Led all the way
SF49ers19TBBuccaneers30
Biggest swing 16 pts · Q3 2:49
DETLions17KCChiefs30
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q2 12:56
BUFBills14ATLFalcons24
Biggest swing 16 pts · Q2 11:22
Upset · 35% at kickoff
CHIBears25WASCommanders24
Biggest swing 40 pts · Q4 0:03
Upset · 30% at kickoffComeback from 11%

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. 1CHIBears · Q4 0:03 · CHI at WASJ.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD+4060% → 100%
  2. 2INDColts · Q4 0:58 · ARI at INDJ.Brissett pass incomplete short left to T.McBride [L.Latu].+3661% → 97%
  3. 3LACChargers · Q4 0:34 · LAC at MIAJ.Herbert pass short left to L.McConkey ran ob at MIA 17 for 42 yards (J.Jones).+3342% → 75%
  4. 4CHIBears · Q4 3:10 · CHI at WAST.J.Daniels FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 45, RECOVERED by CHI-N.Wright at CHI 44.+2614% → 40%
  5. 5MIADolphins · Q4 0:52 · LAC at MIAT.Tagovailoa pass short right to D.Waller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2634% → 60%
  6. 6CARPanthers · Q4 2:31 · DAL at CARB.Young pass short left to H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (D.Bland).+2648% → 74%
  7. 7NYGGiants · Q4 11:36 · PHI at NYGJ.Hurts pass short left intended for J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by C.Flott at NYG 9. C.Flott pushed ob at PHI 23 for 68 yards (S.Barkley).+2367% → 90%
  8. 8DENBroncos · Q4 1:14 · DEN at NYJJ.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by J.Cooper and B.Jones).+2275% → 97%
  9. 9CHIBears · Q4 10:36 · CHI at WASC.Williams pass short left to D.Swift for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2111% → 32%
  10. 10WASCommanders · Q3 3:03 · CHI at WASJ.Daniels pass deep left to L.McCaffrey for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2044% → 64%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1ATLFalcons · Q2 11:22 · vs BUF · Bijan RobinsonB.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.7EPA
  2. 2CHIBears · Q4 10:36 · vs WAS · D'Andre SwiftC.Williams pass short left to D.Swift for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.7EPA
  3. 3SEASeahawks · Q2 8:42 · vs JAX · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaS.Darnold pass deep middle to J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.2EPA
  4. 4SF49ers · Q2 15:00 · vs TB · Kendrick BourneM.Jones pass deep middle to K.Bourne to TB 33 for 56 yards.+4.7EPA
  5. 5TBBuccaneers · Q3 2:49 · vs SF · Tez JohnsonB.Mayfield pass deep middle to T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.6EPA
  6. 6CINBengals · Q4 4:17 · vs GB · Ja'Marr ChaseJ.Flacco pass deep right to J.Chase for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.6EPA
  7. 7LARams · Q3 12:20 · vs BAL · Kyren WilliamsM.Stafford pass deep left to K.Williams to BAL 3 for 30 yards. Penalty on BAL-T.Simpson, Defensive Pass…+4.6EPA
  8. 8NEPatriots · Q1 11:03 · vs NO · DeMario DouglasD.Maye pass deep left to D.Douglas for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.5EPA
  9. 9DALCowboys · Q3 2:45 · vs CAR · George PickensD.Prescott pass short right to G.Pickens for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.2EPA
  10. 10MIADolphins · Q1 4:11 · vs LAC · De'Von AchaneD.Achane right end for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+4.2EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1TBBuccaneersvs SF · W 30–19+0.29+0.32 vs usual
2KCChiefsvs DET · W 30–17+0.27+0.25 vs usual
3NYGGiantsvs PHI · W 34–17+0.25+0.26 vs usual
4GBPackersvs CIN · W 27–18+0.21+0.09 vs usual
5DALCowboysat CAR · L 27–30+0.18+0.09 vs usual
6CHIBearsat WAS · W 25–24+0.17+0.10 vs usual
7CARPanthersvs DAL · W 30–27+0.16+0.21 vs usual
8NEPatriotsat NO · W 25–19+0.16+0.07 vs usual
9INDColtsvs ARI · W 31–27+0.15+0.08 vs usual
10PITSteelersvs CLE · W 23–9+0.13+0.14 vs usual
11DETLionsat KC · L 17–30+0.11+0.03 vs usual
12LACChargersat MIA · W 29–27+0.10+0.15 vs usual
13CINBengalsat GB · L 18–27+0.09+0.11 vs usual
14MIADolphinsvs LAC · L 27–29+0.09+0.11 vs usual
15ARICardinalsat IND · L 27–31+0.09+0.12 vs usual
16ATLFalconsvs BUF · W 24–14+0.07+0.09 vs usual
17SEASeahawksat JAX · W 20–12+0.05+0.01 vs usual
18JAXJaguarsvs SEA · L 12–20−0.02−0.06 vs usual
19LARamsat BAL · W 17–3−0.03−0.19 vs usual
20NOSaintsvs NE · L 19–25−0.04+0.05 vs usual
21WASCommandersvs CHI · L 24–25−0.06−0.08 vs usual
22SF49ersat TB · L 19–30−0.09−0.16 vs usual
23DENBroncosat NYJ · W 13–11−0.09−0.12 vs usual
24PHIEaglesat NYG · L 17–34−0.10−0.13 vs usual
25BUFBillsat ATL · L 14–24−0.12−0.27 vs usual
26LVRaidersvs TEN · W 20–10−0.18+0.04 vs usual
27CLEBrownsat PIT · L 9–23−0.19+0.01 vs usual
28TENTitansat LV · L 10–20−0.31−0.16 vs usual
29BALRavensvs LA · L 3–17−0.33−0.40 vs usual
30NYJJetsvs DEN · L 11–13−0.42−0.31 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 14Dak PrescottDAL vs CAR · 25/34, 261 yds, 3 TD+17.0
  2. 210Drake MayeNE vs NO · 18/26, 261 yds, 3 TD · 9-28 rush+16.0
  3. 310Justin HerbertLAC vs MIA · 29/38, 264 yds, 2 TD+14.9
  4. 415Patrick MahomesKC vs DET · 22/30, 257 yds, 3 TD · 10-32 rush+14.1
  5. 56Baker MayfieldTB vs SF · 17/23, 256 yds, 2 TD · 3-14 rush+12.4
  6. 610Jordan LoveGB vs CIN · 19/26, 259 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · 7-26 rush+11.2
  7. 76Jaxson DartNYG vs PHI · 17/25, 195 yds, 1 TD · 13-58 rush+9.9
  8. 88Aaron RodgersPIT vs CLE · 21/30, 235 yds, 2 TD+9.2
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 14D'Andre SwiftCHI vs WAS · 14 car, 108 yds · 2-67 rec+12.3
  2. 25Rico DowdleCAR vs DAL · 30 car, 183 yds · 4-56 rec+8.9
  3. 37Bijan RobinsonATL vs BUF · 19 car, 170 yds, 1 TD · 6-68 rec+7.7
  4. 444Cam SkatteboNYG vs PHI · 19 car, 98 yds, 3 TD · 2-12 rec+7.2
  5. 523Kyren WilliamsLA vs BAL · 13 car, 50 yds, 1 TD · 2-37 rec+4.8
  6. 68Josh JacobsGB vs CIN · 18 car, 93 yds, 2 TD · 5-57 rec+4.5
  7. 728De'Von AchaneMIA vs LAC · 16 car, 128 yds, 2 TD · 4-22 rec+3.2
  8. 826Jeremy McNicholsWAS vs CHI · 2 car, 5 yds · 3-30 rec+3.0
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 115Patrick MahomesKC vs DET · QB31.5
  2. 25Rico DowdleCAR vs DAL · RB29.9
  3. 37Bijan RobinsonATL vs BUF · RB29.8
  4. 444Cam SkatteboNYG vs PHI · RB29.0
  5. 510Drake MayeNE vs NO · QB27.2
  6. 68Josh JacobsGB vs CIN · RB27.0
  7. 728De'Von AchaneMIA vs LAC · RB27.0
  8. 86Jaxson DartNYG vs PHI · QB23.6
  9. 94D'Andre SwiftCHI vs WAS · RB23.5
  10. 103George PickensDAL vs CAR · WR22.8
  11. 1117Daniel JonesIND vs ARI · QB22.5
  12. 124Dak PrescottDAL vs CAR · QB22.3
  13. 1311Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs JAX · WR22.2
  14. 145Drake LondonATL vs BUF · WR21.8
  15. 155Jayden DanielsWAS vs CHI · QB21.6
  16. 169Kayshon BoutteNE vs NO · WR21.3
  1. 17Bijan RobinsonATL vs BUF · RB32.8
  2. 25Rico DowdleCAR vs DAL · RB31.9
  3. 315Patrick MahomesKC vs DET · QB31.5
  4. 444Cam SkatteboNYG vs PHI · RB30.0
  5. 58Josh JacobsGB vs CIN · RB29.5
  6. 628De'Von AchaneMIA vs LAC · RB29.0
  7. 73George PickensDAL vs CAR · WR27.3
  8. 810Drake MayeNE vs NO · QB27.2
  9. 95Drake LondonATL vs BUF · WR26.8
  10. 1011Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs JAX · WR26.2
  11. 114D'Andre SwiftCHI vs WAS · RB24.5
  12. 129Kayshon BoutteNE vs NO · WR23.8
  13. 136Jaxson DartNYG vs PHI · QB23.6
  14. 1417Daniel JonesIND vs ARI · QB22.5
  15. 154Dak PrescottDAL vs CAR · QB22.3
  16. 1628Jonathan TaylorIND vs ARI · RB21.7
  1. 17Bijan RobinsonATL vs BUF · RB35.8
  2. 25Rico DowdleCAR vs DAL · RB33.9
  3. 38Josh JacobsGB vs CIN · RB32.0
  4. 45Drake LondonATL vs BUF · WR31.8
  5. 53George PickensDAL vs CAR · WR31.8
  6. 615Patrick MahomesKC vs DET · QB31.5
  7. 728De'Von AchaneMIA vs LAC · RB31.0
  8. 844Cam SkatteboNYG vs PHI · RB31.0
  9. 911Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs JAX · WR30.2
  10. 1010Drake MayeNE vs NO · QB27.2
  11. 119Kayshon BoutteNE vs NO · WR26.3
  12. 1288Dallas GoedertPHI vs NYG · TE26.0
  13. 134D'Andre SwiftCHI vs WAS · RB25.5
  14. 141Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs GB · WR25.1
  15. 1523Christian McCaffreySF vs TB · RB24.1
  16. 1628Jonathan TaylorIND vs ARI · RB23.7
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 13George PickensDAL vs CAR · 9/11, 168 yds, 1 TD+16.7
  2. 29Kayshon BoutteNE vs NO · 5/5, 93 yds, 2 TD+10.8
  3. 311Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs JAX · 8/13, 162 yds, 1 TD+8.2
  4. 419Kameron JohnsonTB vs SF · 4/4, 64 yds, 1 TD+7.5
  5. 51Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs GB · 10/12, 94 yds, 1 TD+6.8
  6. 60Matthew GoldenGB vs CIN · 3/5, 86 yds+6.6
  7. 75Marquise BrownKC vs DET · 4/4, 45 yds, 2 TD+6.1
  8. 81Tre TuckerLV vs TEN · 5/5, 70 yds+6.0
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 187Travis KelceKC vs DET · 6/7, 78 yds+8.7
  2. 288Dallas GoedertPHI vs NYG · 9/11, 110 yds, 1 TD+6.1
  3. 31Evan EngramDEN vs NYJ · 5/6, 42 yds+6.0
  4. 487Sam LaPortaDET vs KC · 5/6, 55 yds, 1 TD+5.1
  5. 586Zach ErtzWAS vs CHI · 6/6, 43 yds, 1 TD+5.1
  6. 687Jake FergusonDAL vs CAR · 3/3, 33 yds, 1 TD+4.7
  7. 788AJ BarnerSEA vs JAX · 3/3, 71 yds+4.5
  8. 880Darnell WashingtonPIT vs CLE · 3/5, 62 yds+4.5

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 6 · against his own season380 played

The biggest swing in snaps in Week 6: Jacoby Brissett (Cardinals) took 100% of the snaps, up 97 points on his season; Russell Wilson (Giants) fell to 3% from 74.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

▲ Climbers
7Jacoby BrissettARI · QB+97 pts3% → 100%8Dillon GabrielCLE · QB+62 pts38% → 100%9Tre HarrisLAC · WR+58 pts25% → 83%87Michael MayerLV · TE+57 pts35% → 92%84Hunter LongJAX · TE+56 pts24% → 80%
▼ Fallers
3Russell WilsonNYG · QB−71 pts74% → 3%0Calvin RidleyTEN · WR−68 pts78% → 10%18Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · WR−65 pts88% → 23%10Dont'e Thornton Jr.LV · WR−58 pts61% → 3%20Tony PollardTEN · RB−43 pts86% → 43%

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

▲ Climbers
87Michael MayerLV · TE+24 pts7% → 30%5Drake LondonATL · WR+23 pts28% → 52%11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR+20 pts34% → 54%87Romeo DoubsGB · WR+18 pts17% → 35%19Kameron JohnsonTB · WR+17 pts0% → 17%
▼ Fallers
12Puka NacuaLA · WR−24 pts35% → 12%0Calvin RidleyTEN · WR−20 pts22% → 3%20Breece HallNYJ · RB−17 pts17% → 0%87Jake FergusonDAL · TE−16 pts25% → 9%18Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · WR−15 pts20% → 5%

EPAthe week against his per-game average

▲ Climbers
16Joe FlaccoCIN · QB+20.8 EPA-14.3 → +6.54D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB+14.5 EPA-2.2 → +12.310Justin HerbertLAC · QB+13.0 EPA-0.4 → +12.66Jaxson DartNYG · QB+11.8 EPA-4.3 → +7.53George PickensDAL · WR+11.6 EPA+5.2 → +16.7
▼ Fallers
7Justin FieldsNYJ · QB−23.2 EPA+2.5 → -20.717Josh AllenBUF · QB−14.8 EPA+7.6 → -7.24Zay FlowersBAL · WR−14.4 EPA+4.1 → -10.38Dillon GabrielCLE · QB−13.9 EPA0.0 → -13.933Javonte WilliamsDAL · RB−11.6 EPA+1.9 → -9.8
New faces7Jacoby BrissettARI · QB · first start-level week, 100% of the snaps20Bam KnightARI · RB · first start-level week, 51% of the snaps5Tyler HuntleyBAL · QB · debut, 32% of the snaps17Lil'Jordan HumphreyNYG · WR · debut, 77% of the snaps30Kimani VidalLAC · RB · first start-level week, 67% of the snaps2Tyjae SpearsTEN · RB · first start-level week, 59% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.