2025
Week 6 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
49ers offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for 49ers, 17 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 30–19; their low point was 46% at Q2 10:18. The game turned for good at Q2 9:34: B.Mayfield pass short middle to E.Egbuka to SF 49 for 17 yards (T.Bethune; M.Mustapha) (47% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 2:49, 16 points for the Buccaneers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 2:49TBB.Mayfield pass deep middle to T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 85%
- 2Q1 10:46TBM.Jones pass short right intended for K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by K.Vildor at SF 25. K.Vildor to SF 12 for 13 yards (D.Puni).58% → 70%
- 3Q2 10:22SFC.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.41% → 54%
- 4Q2 0:50TBB.Mayfield pass deep right to K.Johnson for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-U.Stout, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.67% → 78%
- 5Q2 15:00SFM.Jones pass deep middle to K.Bourne to TB 33 for 56 yards (J.Parrish).30% → 40%
- ★Q2 9:34TBB.Mayfield pass short middle to E.Egbuka to SF 49 for 17 yards (T.Bethune; M.Mustapha).turning point47% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Bourne led the 49ers at +3.9 EPA (5 catches for 142). B.Mayfield led the Buccaneers at +12.4 EPA (17 of 23 for 256).
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jones100% | 27/39 | 347 | 2 | 6 | -4.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey93% | 17 | 77% | 54 | 1 | -1.3 |
| M.Jones100% | 5 | 23% | 13 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Bourne80% | 9 | 24% | 5 | 142 | +3.9 | |
| C.McCaffrey93% | 8 | 22% | 7 | 57 | +1.9 | |
| J.Tonges83% | 7 | 19% | 6 | 58 | +2.3 | |
| D.Robinson19% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 44 | +1.6 | |
| M.Valdes-Scantling61% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 22 | -0.9 | |
| J.Jennings77% | 3 | 8% | 1 | 7 | -3.1 | |
| B.Robinson7% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 8 | -0.9 | |
| K.Juszczyk36% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 |
Defense M.Williams 1 sack · Kicking E.Pineiro 4/4 FG (long 54)
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 17/23 | 256 | 2 | 1 | +12.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.White77% | 17 | 65% | 65 | 1 | -1.0 |
| S.Tucker23% | 6 | 23% | 25 | 1 | +1.7 |
| B.Mayfield100% | 3 | 12% | 14 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Otton100% | 6 | 26% | 5 | 51 | +0.1 | |
| K.Johnson49% | 4 | 17% | 4 | 64 | 1 | +7.6 |
| E.Egbuka53% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 24 | -0.3 | |
| S.Shepard49% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 51 | +3.0 | |
| R.White77% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 21 | +0.2 | |
| T.Johnson72% | 3 | 13% | 1 | 45 | 1 | +3.8 |
Defense J.Dean 1 sack and 1 INT, Y.Diaby 2 sacks, K.Vildor 1 INT, L.David 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 1/2 FG (long 45)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Buccaneers give up 51 yards a game to running backs (32nd), against a league average of 32. 49ers' running backs produce 69 (1st).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.01 EPA per attempt. 49ers send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
49ers average 3.7 yards per carry (29th). Buccaneers allow 4.1 (15th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. 49ers create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (22nd). Buccaneers give them up at 10% (19th).
The 49ers lead the series 9–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | SF 19 at TB 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 10 | SF 23 at TB 20 |
| 2023 · Wk 11 | TB 14 at SF 27 |
| 2022 · Wk 14 | TB 7 at SF 35 |
| 2019 · Wk 1 | SF 31 at TB 17 |
2025 records
| 49ers | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Away | 7–2 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | LLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 25.7 – 21.8 | 22.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the 49ers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SF off | Favors SF · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#9 | +0.02#17 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 48%#3 | 45%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#11 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#22 | 10%#19 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#8 | +0.07#20 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#4 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.04#13 | -0.11#5 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#29 | 4.1#15 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 51%#1 | 40%#13 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 69%#2 | 65%#27 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 124#24 | 148#22 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#12 | 57#22 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#13 | 7.5#21 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 69#1 | 51#32 | 32 | |
49ers: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.