2025
Week 6 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Lambeau Field
vs
Bengals offensevsPackers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Bengals, 18 for Packers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 27–18 and were favored the whole way, never below 79%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 4:50, 8 points for the Bengals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 4:50CINJ.Flacco pass short middle to T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-N.Hobbs, Defensive Holding, declined.7% → 15%
- 2Q1 8:51CINJ.Love pass short right intended for R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by G.Stone (D.Turner) [D.Knight] at CIN 11. G.Stone ran ob at CIN 36 for 25 yards (J.Love).11% → 18%
- 3Q2 5:46GBJ.Love pass deep left to M.Golden pushed ob at CIN 35 for 35 yards (C.Taylor-Britt).85% → 89%
- 4Q1 14:56GBJ.Love pass deep middle to R.Doubs to CIN 45 for 21 yards (L.Wilson).89% → 93%
- 5Q4 15:00GBJ.Jacobs up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.91% → 95%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Flacco led the Bengals at +6.5 EPA (29 of 45 for 219). J.Love led the Packers at +11.2 EPA (19 of 26 for 259).
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Flacco100% | 29/45 | 219 | 2 | 1 | +6.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown54% | 9 | 56% | 42 | -0.2 | |
| S.Perine46% | 6 | 38% | 16 | +0.4 | |
| J.Chase100% | 1 | 6% | -3 | -1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase100% | 12 | 30% | 10 | 94 | 1 | +6.8 |
| T.Higgins80% | 8 | 20% | 5 | 62 | +5.7 | |
| T.Hudson25% | 5 | 13% | 4 | 10 | 1 | +0.4 |
| N.Fant49% | 4 | 10% | 4 | 27 | +0.7 | |
| A.Iosivas94% | 4 | 10% | 1 | 5 | -1.8 | |
| S.Perine46% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 16 | -1.4 | |
| D.Sample34% | 2 | 5% | 1 | -2 | -1.4 | |
| C.Brown54% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 7 | +0.7 |
Defense G.Stone 1 sack and 1 INT · Kicking E.McPherson 1/3 FG (long 45)
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 19/26 | 259 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +7.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs79% | 18 | 55% | 93 | 2 | +1.1 |
| J.Love100% | 7 | 21% | 26 | +3.9 | |
| E.Wilson18% | 3 | 9% | 11 | -0.5 | |
| M.Golden69% | 2 | 6% | 16 | +1.2 | |
| B.Melton | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.2 | |
| C.Brooks8% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.4 | |
| S.Williams11% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Doubs85% | 9 | 35% | 5 | 55 | -5.3 | |
| J.Jacobs79% | 5 | 19% | 5 | 57 | +3.4 | |
| M.Golden69% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 86 | +6.6 | |
| D.Wicks34% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 15 | +2.0 | |
| T.Kraft92% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 43 | 1 | +3.7 |
| L.Musgrave34% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 7 | -0.3 | |
| E.Wilson18% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -4 | -1.9 |
Defense L.Ness 1 sack · Kicking L.Havrisik 2/2 FG (long 43)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Bengals take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (10th). Packers get home on 6% (26th). League average is 7%.
Deep right is open
Packers are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.52 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Packers give up 29 yards a game to running backs (12th), against a league average of 32. Bengals' running backs produce 30 (15th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Bengals average -0.01 EPA per play (20th). Packers allow +0.04 (22nd). League average is +0.01.
The series is even at 3–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). The Packers have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | CIN 18 at GB 27 |
| 2021 · Wk 5 · OT | GB 25 at CIN 22 |
| 2017 · Wk 3 · OT | CIN 24 at GB 27 |
| 2013 · Wk 3 | GB 30 at CIN 34 |
| 2009 · Wk 2 | CIN 31 at GB 24 |
2025 records
| Bengals | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 9–7–1 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 7–4–1 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Home | 3–6 | 5–3 |
| Away | 3–5 | 4–4–1 |
| Last 5 | LLWWL | WLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 4 |
| Points a game | 24.4 – 28.9 | 23.0 – 21.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors GB | GB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#20 | +0.04#22 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#10 | 44%#16 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#16 | 5.1#9 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#27 | 8%#5 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.03#23 | +0.09#23 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#10 | 6%#26 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.05#17 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#13 | 4.1#13 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 45%#4 | 42%#20 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 73%#1 | 59%#16 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 167#5 | 136#15 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 52#15 | 50#12 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#12 | 8.2#24 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#15 | 29#12 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Packers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.