2025
Week 6 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Lambeau Field
vs
Packers offensevsBengals defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Packers, 17 for Bengals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 27–18 and were favored the whole way, never below 79%. The biggest single swing came at Q3 4:50, 8 points for the Bengals.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 4:50CINJ.Flacco pass short middle to T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-N.Hobbs, Defensive Holding, declined.7% → 15%
- 2Q1 8:51GBJ.Love pass short right intended for R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by G.Stone (D.Turner) [D.Knight] at CIN 11. G.Stone ran ob at CIN 36 for 25 yards (J.Love).11% → 18%
- 3Q2 5:46GBJ.Love pass deep left to M.Golden pushed ob at CIN 35 for 35 yards (C.Taylor-Britt).85% → 89%
- 4Q1 14:56GBJ.Love pass deep middle to R.Doubs to CIN 45 for 21 yards (L.Wilson).89% → 93%
- 5Q4 15:00GBJ.Jacobs up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.91% → 95%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Flacco led the Bengals at +6.5 EPA (29 of 45 for 219). J.Love led the Packers at +11.2 EPA (19 of 26 for 259).
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Flacco100% | 29/45 | 219 | 2 | 1 | +6.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown54% | 9 | 56% | 42 | -0.2 | |
| S.Perine46% | 6 | 38% | 16 | +0.4 | |
| J.Chase100% | 1 | 6% | -3 | -1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Chase100% | 12 | 30% | 10 | 94 | 1 | +6.8 |
| T.Higgins80% | 8 | 20% | 5 | 62 | +5.7 | |
| T.Hudson25% | 5 | 13% | 4 | 10 | 1 | +0.4 |
| N.Fant49% | 4 | 10% | 4 | 27 | +0.7 | |
| A.Iosivas94% | 4 | 10% | 1 | 5 | -1.8 | |
| S.Perine46% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 16 | -1.4 | |
| D.Sample34% | 2 | 5% | 1 | -2 | -1.4 | |
| C.Brown54% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 7 | +0.7 |
Defense G.Stone 1 sack and 1 INT · Kicking E.McPherson 1/3 FG (long 45)
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 19/26 | 259 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +7.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jacobs79% | 18 | 55% | 93 | 2 | +1.1 |
| J.Love100% | 7 | 21% | 26 | +3.9 | |
| E.Wilson18% | 3 | 9% | 11 | -0.5 | |
| M.Golden69% | 2 | 6% | 16 | +1.2 | |
| B.Melton | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.2 | |
| C.Brooks8% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.4 | |
| S.Williams11% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Doubs85% | 9 | 35% | 5 | 55 | -5.3 | |
| J.Jacobs79% | 5 | 19% | 5 | 57 | +3.4 | |
| M.Golden69% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 86 | +6.6 | |
| D.Wicks34% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 15 | +2.0 | |
| T.Kraft92% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 43 | 1 | +3.7 |
| L.Musgrave34% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 7 | -0.3 | |
| E.Wilson18% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -4 | -1.9 |
Defense L.Ness 1 sack · Kicking L.Havrisik 2/2 FG (long 43)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Packers gain +0.24 EPA per dropback (1st). Bengals allow +0.16 (28th).
Deep left is open
Bengals are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.70 EPA per attempt. Packers send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Bengals give up 116 yards a game to wide receivers (3rd), against a league average of 140. Packers' wide receivers produce 150 (13th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Packers gain 5.7 yards per play (9th). Bengals give up 6.3 (32nd), with the league at 5.4.
The series is even at 3–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). The Packers have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | CIN 18 at GB 27 |
| 2021 · Wk 5 · OT | GB 25 at CIN 22 |
| 2017 · Wk 3 · OT | CIN 24 at GB 27 |
| 2013 · Wk 3 | GB 30 at CIN 34 |
| 2009 · Wk 2 | CIN 31 at GB 24 |
2025 records
| Bengals | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 9–7–1 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 5–7 | 7–4–1 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Home | 3–6 | 5–3 |
| Away | 3–5 | 4–4–1 |
| Last 5 | LLWWL | WLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 4 |
| Points a game | 24.4 – 28.9 | 23.0 – 21.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bengals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | GB off | Favors GB · Favors CIN | CIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#3 | +0.13#29 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#4 | 48%#28 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#9 | 6.3#32 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#3 | 12%#30 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#1 | +0.16#28 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 6%#22 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.07#22 | +0.06#31 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.1#21 | 5.2#31 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#2 | 44%#26 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 60%#12 | 65%#25 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 150#13 | 116#3 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#22 | 85#32 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.6#28 | 9.7#32 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#20 | 43#29 | 32 | |
Packers: EPA per throw
Bengals: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.