2025
Week 6 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
vs
Lions offensevsChiefs defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Lions, 17 for Chiefs. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chiefs won 30–17; their low point was 36% at Q2 3:30. The game turned for good at Q2 1:00: P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to T.Kelce. PENALTY on DET-R.Ya-Sin, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at DET 32 - No Play (48% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 12:56, 12 points for the Lions.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 12:56DETJ.Goff pass short middle to J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-N.Williams was injured during the play.42% → 54%
- 2Q1 1:14KCP.Mahomes pass short right to X.Worthy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.57% → 67%
- 3Q2 1:00KCP.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to T.Kelce. PENALTY on DET-R.Ya-Sin, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at DET 32 - No Play.turning point48% → 57%
- 4Q1 4:03KCP.Mahomes pass short right to J.Smith-Schuster to DET 24 for 30 yards (B.Branch).54% → 62%
- 5Q2 0:54KCP.Mahomes pass short right to T.Kelce to DET 1 for 17 yards (R.Ya-Sin).57% → 64%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Goff led the Lions at +7.9 EPA (23 of 29 for 203). P.Mahomes led the Chiefs at +14.1 EPA (22 of 30 for 257).
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 23/29 | 203 | 2 | 1 | +6.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs69% | 17 | 74% | 65 | -1.5 | |
| D.Montgomery31% | 4 | 17% | 24 | -0.1 | |
| J.Goff100% | 1 | 4% | 7 | +1.2 | |
| A.Brown89% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown89% | 10 | 37% | 9 | 45 | +0.3 | |
| J.Williams85% | 7 | 26% | 6 | 66 | 1 | +3.2 |
| S.LaPorta96% | 6 | 22% | 5 | 55 | 1 | +5.1 |
| D.Montgomery31% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 37 | +2.3 | |
| J.Gibbs69% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 0 | -1.7 |
Defense A.Muhammad 1 sack, A.Hutchinson 1 sack, J.Campbell 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 1/1 FG (long 28)
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 22/30 | 257 | 3 | 3 | +15.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I.Pacheco77% | 12 | 41% | 51 | -1.5 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 10 | 34% | 32 | 1 | -1.5 |
| K.Hunt30% | 6 | 21% | 23 | +1.1 | |
| X.Worthy73% | 1 | 3% | 6 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kelce70% | 7 | 25% | 6 | 78 | +8.7 | |
| M.Brown52% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 45 | 2 | +6.1 |
| X.Worthy73% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 20 | 1 | +0.8 |
| B.Smith9% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 21 | +0.8 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster62% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 57 | +3.7 | |
| I.Pacheco77% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 0 | -1.6 | |
| N.Gray75% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 25 | +1.2 | |
| K.Hunt30% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +0.5 |
Defense C.Omenihu 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 1/1 FG (long 33)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Lions gain +0.17 EPA per dropback (4th). Chiefs allow 0.00 (15th).
Deep middle is open
Chiefs are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.83 EPA per attempt. Lions send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Chiefs give up 5.9 targets a game to tight ends (4th), against a league average of 7.3. Lions' tight ends produce 5.4 (31st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Lions succeed on 45% of plays (12th) against a defense that allows 44% (14th).
The Chiefs lead the series 5–3 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | DET 17 at KC 30 |
| 2023 · Wk 1 | DET 21 at KC 20 |
| 2019 · Wk 4 | KC 34 at DET 30 |
| 2015 · Wk 8 | DET 10 at KC 45 |
| 2011 · Wk 2 | KC 3 at DET 48 |
2025 records
| Lions | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 6–11 |
| Division | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Away | 4–5 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | WLLLW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 6 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 24.3 | 21.3 – 19.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Lions' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DET off | Favors DET · Favors KC | KC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.08#6 | -0.02#12 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#12 | 44%#14 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#4 | 5.3#13 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#8 | 9%#12 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#4 | 0.00#15 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#14 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#16 | -0.09#9 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#5 | 3.9#7 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#20 | 44%#27 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#8 | 55%#10 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 181#3 | 129#12 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#26 | 48#11 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.4#31 | 5.9#4 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 47#4 | 29#14 | 32 | |
Lions: EPA per throw
Chiefs: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.