2025
Week 6 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
vs
Chiefs offensevsLions defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Chiefs, 17 for Lions. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chiefs won 30–17; their low point was 36% at Q2 3:30. The game turned for good at Q2 1:00: P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to T.Kelce. PENALTY on DET-R.Ya-Sin, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at DET 32 - No Play (48% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 12:56, 12 points for the Lions.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 12:56DETJ.Goff pass short middle to J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-N.Williams was injured during the play.42% → 54%
- 2Q1 1:14KCP.Mahomes pass short right to X.Worthy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.57% → 67%
- 3Q2 1:00KCP.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to T.Kelce. PENALTY on DET-R.Ya-Sin, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at DET 32 - No Play.turning point48% → 57%
- 4Q1 4:03KCP.Mahomes pass short right to J.Smith-Schuster to DET 24 for 30 yards (B.Branch).54% → 62%
- 5Q2 0:54KCP.Mahomes pass short right to T.Kelce to DET 1 for 17 yards (R.Ya-Sin).57% → 64%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Goff led the Lions at +7.9 EPA (23 of 29 for 203). P.Mahomes led the Chiefs at +14.1 EPA (22 of 30 for 257).
Lions
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Goff100% | 23/29 | 203 | 2 | 1 | +6.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Gibbs69% | 17 | 74% | 65 | -1.5 | |
| D.Montgomery31% | 4 | 17% | 24 | -0.1 | |
| J.Goff100% | 1 | 4% | 7 | +1.2 | |
| A.Brown89% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown89% | 10 | 37% | 9 | 45 | +0.3 | |
| J.Williams85% | 7 | 26% | 6 | 66 | 1 | +3.2 |
| S.LaPorta96% | 6 | 22% | 5 | 55 | 1 | +5.1 |
| D.Montgomery31% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 37 | +2.3 | |
| J.Gibbs69% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 0 | -1.7 |
Defense A.Muhammad 1 sack, A.Hutchinson 1 sack, J.Campbell 1 sack · Kicking J.Bates 1/1 FG (long 28)
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 22/30 | 257 | 3 | 3 | +15.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I.Pacheco77% | 12 | 41% | 51 | -1.5 | |
| P.Mahomes100% | 10 | 34% | 32 | 1 | -1.5 |
| K.Hunt30% | 6 | 21% | 23 | +1.1 | |
| X.Worthy73% | 1 | 3% | 6 | +0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Kelce70% | 7 | 25% | 6 | 78 | +8.7 | |
| M.Brown52% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 45 | 2 | +6.1 |
| X.Worthy73% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 20 | 1 | +0.8 |
| B.Smith9% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 21 | +0.8 | |
| J.Smith-Schuster62% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 57 | +3.7 | |
| I.Pacheco77% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 0 | -1.6 | |
| N.Gray75% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 25 | +1.2 | |
| K.Hunt30% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +0.5 |
Defense C.Omenihu 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 1/1 FG (long 33)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Lions give up 7.7 targets a game to tight ends (22nd), against a league average of 7.3. Chiefs' tight ends produce 8.6 (7th).
Deep middle is open
Lions are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.29 EPA per attempt. Chiefs send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Lions give up 25 yards a game to running backs (5th), against a league average of 32. Chiefs' running backs produce 25 (25th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Chiefs gain 5.2 yards per play (20th). Lions give up 5.5 (18th), with the league at 5.4.
The Chiefs lead the series 5–3 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | DET 17 at KC 30 |
| 2023 · Wk 1 | DET 21 at KC 20 |
| 2019 · Wk 4 | KC 34 at DET 30 |
| 2015 · Wk 8 | DET 10 at KC 45 |
| 2011 · Wk 2 | KC 3 at DET 48 |
2025 records
| Lions | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9–8 | 6–11 |
| Division | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Away | 4–5 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | WLLLW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 6 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 24.3 | 21.3 – 19.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Lions' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | KC off | Favors KC · Favors DET | DET def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#12 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#15 | 42%#9 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#20 | 5.5#18 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#18 | 11%#23 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.04#14 | -0.01#14 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#15 | -0.04#18 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#26 | 4.4#24 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#23 | 37%#9 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#19 | 58%#15 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 147#14 | 156#24 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#8 | 55#19 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.6#7 | 7.7#22 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#25 | 25#5 | 32 | |
Chiefs: EPA per throw
Lions: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.