2025
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
vs
Patriots offensevsSaints defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 17 for Saints. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 25–19 and were favored the whole way, never below 55%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:38, 15 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:38NED.Maye pass deep left to K.Boutte for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-A.Taylor, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs.66% → 81%
- 2Q2 5:54NOD.Maye Aborted. G.Bradbury FUMBLES at NO 45, recovered by NE-D.Maye at NE 47.28% → 39%
- 3Q1 14:53NOS.Rattler pass deep right to C.Olave pushed ob at NE 22 for 53 yards (K.Dugger).34% → 45%
- 4Q1 11:03NED.Maye pass deep left to D.Douglas for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.63% → 72%
- 5Q2 9:47NOL.T.Hill right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.22% → 32%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Maye led the Patriots at +16.0 EPA (18 of 26 for 261). S.Rattler led the Saints at +5.7 EPA (20 of 26 for 227).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 18/26 | 261 | 3 | 1 | +17.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson72% | 13 | 42% | 18 | -6.7 | |
| D.Maye100% | 9 | 29% | 28 | -1.4 | |
| T.Henderson30% | 9 | 29% | 27 | -1.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Boutte67% | 5 | 21% | 5 | 93 | 2 | +10.8 |
| D.Douglas25% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 71 | 1 | +4.4 |
| S.Diggs59% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 28 | +3.5 | |
| H.Henry83% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 27 | +1.9 | |
| M.Hollins55% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 28 | +2.7 | |
| K.Williams22% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -2.4 | |
| T.Henderson30% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 9 | +0.6 | |
| A.Hooper64% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 | |
| R.Stevenson72% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense H.III 1 sack, M.Jones 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 1/1 FG (long 24)
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Rattler98% | 20/26 | 227 | 2 | +3.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Kamara62% | 10 | 43% | 31 | -1.2 | |
| K.Miller39% | 8 | 35% | 21 | -2.5 | |
| S.Rattler98% | 4 | 17% | 20 | +1.8 | |
| T.Hill21% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave88% | 10 | 38% | 6 | 98 | +1.9 | |
| R.Shaheed61% | 6 | 23% | 4 | 28 | -1.2 | |
| A.Kamara62% | 5 | 19% | 5 | 45 | +2.1 | |
| J.Johnson71% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 15 | -5.1 | |
| B.Cooks64% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 21 | +1.7 | |
| F.Moreau36% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 9 | +0.7 | |
| K.Miller39% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 11 | +0.6 |
Defense P.Werner 1 sack · Kicking B.Grupe 4/4 FG (long 54)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Patriots gain +0.17 EPA per dropback (5th). Saints allow -0.05 (12th).
Deep middle is open
Saints are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.24 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Patriots' run game is 27th in EPA per carry (-0.10). Saints allow -0.12 (4th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Patriots succeed on 46% of plays (7th) against a defense that allows 42% (7th).
The Patriots lead the series 5–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | NE 25 at NO 19 |
| 2023 · Wk 5 | NO 34 at NE 0 |
| 2021 · Wk 3 | NO 28 at NE 13 |
| 2017 · Wk 2 | NE 36 at NO 20 |
| 2013 · Wk 6 | NO 27 at NE 30 |
2025 records
| Patriots | Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 6–11 |
| Division | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 2–3 |
| Home | 6–3 | 3–5 |
| Away | 8–0 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | WWWWL |
| Streak | Won 3 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 28.8 – 18.8 | 18.0 – 22.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors NO | NO def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#5 | -0.06#10 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#7 | 42%#7 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#3 | 5.0#7 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#4 | 9%#16 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#5 | -0.05#12 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 8%#7 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.10#27 | -0.12#4 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#16 | 3.9#9 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#13 | 36%#4 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#11 | 55%#11 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#7 | 122#6 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#14 | 51#13 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.4#19 | 7.4#17 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#10 | 24#3 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Saints: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.