2025
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · TIAA Bank Stadium
vs
Seahawks offensevsJaguars defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Seahawks, 18 for Jaguars. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 20–12; their low point was 41% at Q1 1:14. The game turned for good at Q2 10:31: T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to J.Mundt (50% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 8:42, 19 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 8:42SEAS.Darnold pass deep middle to J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.54% → 73%
- 2Q2 3:31JAXT.Lawrence pass short right to P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 45 for 17 yards (T.Okada). PENALTY on SEA-D.Lawrence, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards,…25% → 36%
- 3Q1 2:38JAXT.Lawrence pass deep left to B.Thomas to SEA 35 for 19 yards (C.Bryant).39% → 50%
- 4Q2 2:00JAXD.Brown right end pushed ob at SEA 24 for 7 yards (S.Griffin).31% → 40%
- 5Q2 15:00SEAS.Darnold pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at JAX 21 for 32 yards (A.Wingard).45% → 54%
- ★Q2 10:31JAXT.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to J.Mundt.turning point50% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks at +8.2 EPA (8 catches for 162). B.Jr. led the Jaguars at +4.6 EPA (8 catches for 90).
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 16/27 | 295 | 2 | 1 | +10.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Charbonnet60% | 12 | 46% | 24 | -6.8 | |
| K.III35% | 10 | 38% | 34 | -1.4 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 4 | 15% | 2 | -4.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba82% | 13 | 54% | 8 | 162 | 1 | +8.2 |
| C.Kupp71% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 40 | 1 | +3.4 |
| A.Barner78% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 71 | +4.6 | |
| E.Arroyo45% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 6 | -1.5 | |
| K.III35% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 3 | -0.3 | |
| Z.Charbonnet60% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 13 | +0.6 | |
| T.Horton45% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense D.Lawrence 2 sacks, B.II 2 sacks, U.Nwosu 1.5 sacks, D.Thomas 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 2/2 FG (long 53)
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence100% | 27/42 | 258 | 2 | 7 | -0.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Etienne62% | 12 | 63% | 27 | -4.2 | |
| T.Lawrence100% | 3 | 16% | 9 | +2.3 | |
| B.Tuten14% | 2 | 11% | 14 | -0.3 | |
| D.Brown64% | 1 | 5% | 7 | +1.9 | |
| L.Jr.24% | 1 | 5% | 2 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Jr.80% | 10 | 24% | 8 | 90 | 1 | +4.6 |
| T.Hunter78% | 7 | 17% | 4 | 15 | -2.2 | |
| D.Brown64% | 5 | 12% | 2 | 13 | -2.8 | |
| T.Etienne62% | 5 | 12% | 4 | 28 | +0.6 | |
| P.Washington33% | 4 | 10% | 2 | 29 | +2.7 | |
| H.Long80% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 19 | +3.3 | |
| B.Tuten14% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 14 | +0.1 | |
| J.Mundt39% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 14 | +1.9 | |
| L.Jr.24% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 10 | -1.4 | |
| T.Patrick18% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 26 | 1 | +3.1 |
Defense A.Armstead 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 0/1 FG
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Seahawks take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (11th). Jaguars get home on 5% (30th). League average is 7%.
Deep right is open
Jaguars are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.42 EPA per attempt. Seahawks send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Seahawks average 4.2 yards per carry (17th). Jaguars allow 3.7 (4th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Seahawks succeed on 46% of plays (8th) against a defense that allows 42% (8th).
The Seahawks lead the series 6–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | SEA 20 at JAX 12 |
| 2021 · Wk 8 | JAX 7 at SEA 31 |
| 2017 · Wk 14 | SEA 24 at JAX 30 |
| 2013 · Wk 3 | JAX 17 at SEA 45 |
| 2009 · Wk 5 | JAX 0 at SEA 41 |
2025 records
| Seahawks | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 13–4 |
| Division | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 10–2 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Home | 6–2 | 7–2 |
| Away | 8–1 | 6–2 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | WWWWW |
| Streak | Won 7 | Won 8 |
| Points a game | 28.4 – 17.2 | 27.9 – 19.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Seahawks' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SEA off | Favors SEA · Favors JAX | JAX def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.04#10 | -0.09#6 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#8 | 42%#8 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#7 | 5.1#8 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#7 | 8%#3 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.13#7 | -0.12#4 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#11 | 5%#30 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#21 | -0.07#16 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#17 | 3.7#4 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#10 | 42%#21 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#21 | 64%#24 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 168#4 | 143#18 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#27 | 59#23 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.5#30 | 8.7#31 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#16 | 32#20 | 32 | |
Seahawks: EPA per throw
Jaguars: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.