Jaguars offensevsSeahawks defense

The Seahawks won 20–12; their low point was 41% at Q1 1:14. The game turned for good at Q2 10:31: T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to J.Mundt (50% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 8:42, 19 points for the Seahawks.

The plays that swung it

1. 1Q2 8:42SEAS.Darnold pass deep middle to J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.54% → 73%+19 SEA
2. 2Q2 3:31JAXT.Lawrence pass short right to P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 45 for 17 yards (T.Okada). PENALTY on SEA-D.Lawrence, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards,…25% → 36%+11 JAX
3. 3Q1 2:38JAXT.Lawrence pass deep left to B.Thomas to SEA 35 for 19 yards (C.Bryant).39% → 50%+10 JAX
4. 4Q2 2:00JAXD.Brown right end pushed ob at SEA 24 for 7 yards (S.Griffin).31% → 40%+9 JAX
5. 5Q2 15:00SEAS.Darnold pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at JAX 21 for 32 yards (A.Wingard).45% → 54%+9 SEA
6. ★Q2 10:31JAXT.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to J.Mundt.turning point50% → 52%+2 SEA

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.