2025
Week 6 · Sunday 9:30 AM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Broncos offensevsJets defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Broncos, 17 for Jets. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 13–11; their low point was 49% at Q4 13:42. The game turned for good at Q4 13:42: J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to NYJ 20 I.Williams to NYJ 39 for 19 yards (M.Fraboni). PENALTY on NYJ-J.Brownlee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,… (49% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:14, 22 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:14DENJ.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by J.Cooper and B.Jones).75% → 97%
- 2Q4 8:15DENB.Nix pass short left to M.Mims pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 26 yards (A.Cisco).57% → 72%
- 3Q4 3:19NYJB.Nix sacked at DEN 11 for -6 yards (J.Johnson).21% → 35%
- 4Q3 5:02NYJA.B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to T.Franklin. PENALTY on DEN-Q.Meinerz, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play.…31% → 44%
- 5Q4 1:56DENJ.Fields sacked at NYJ 49 for -5 yards (J.Strnad).63% → 72%
- ★Q4 13:42DENJ.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to NYJ 20 I.Williams to NYJ 39 for 19 yards (M.Fraboni). PENALTY on NYJ-J.Brownlee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…turning point49% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
E.Engram led the Broncos at +6.2 EPA (5 catches for 42). J.Reynolds led the Jets at +2.0 EPA (3 catches for 25).
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 19/30 | 174 | 1 | 1 | +5.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins50% | 14 | 54% | 40 | -2.8 | |
| B.Nix100% | 5 | 19% | 24 | +0.2 | |
| R.Harvey28% | 2 | 8% | 4 | -0.7 | |
| E.Engram47% | 1 | 4% | 7 | +0.3 | |
| A.Prentice18% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -1.0 | |
| J.McLaughlin10% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -0.7 | |
| M.Jr.35% | 1 | 4% | -2 | -0.8 | |
| T.Franklin58% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Engram47% | 6 | 23% | 5 | 42 | +6.0 | |
| T.Franklin58% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 19 | -3.3 | |
| R.Harvey28% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 21 | -2.6 | |
| C.Sutton80% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 17 | -0.2 | |
| M.Jr.35% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 30 | +1.9 | |
| N.Adkins38% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 23 | 1 | +2.7 |
| P.Bryant58% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 22 | +2.2 | |
| J.Dobbins50% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | |
| J.McLaughlin10% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
Defense J.Cooper 2 sacks, J.Strnad 1.5 sacks, J.Franklin-Myers 1 sack, Z.Allen 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 2/2 FG (long 57)
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Fields100% | 9/17 | 45 | 9 | -20.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall74% | 22 | 71% | 59 | -3.3 | |
| J.Fields100% | 7 | 23% | 31 | +0.8 | |
| I.Davis26% | 2 | 6% | 2 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Wilson84% | 8 | 50% | 3 | 13 | -5.4 | |
| J.Reynolds88% | 3 | 19% | 3 | 25 | +2.0 | |
| A.Beck5% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 6 | +0.4 | |
| T.Johnson19% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| I.Davis26% | 1 | 6% | 1 | -1 | -1.1 | |
| A.Smith60% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | |
| M.Taylor96% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 |
Defense J.II 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 3/3 FG (long 52)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Broncos take a sack on 4% of dropbacks (1st). Jets get home on 5% (29th). League average is 7%.
Deep right is open
Jets are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.80 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Jets give up 54 yards a game to tight ends (18th), against a league average of 53. Broncos' tight ends produce 39 (28th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Broncos gain 5.3 yards per play (17th). Jets give up 5.8 (23rd), with the league at 5.4.
The Broncos lead the series 10–6 since 1999. They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | DEN 13 at NYJ 11 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | DEN 10 at NYJ 9 |
| 2023 · Wk 5 | NYJ 31 at DEN 21 |
| 2022 · Wk 7 | NYJ 16 at DEN 9 |
| 2021 · Wk 3 | NYJ 0 at DEN 26 |
2025 records
| Broncos | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 3–14 |
| Division | 5–1 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 1–4 |
| Home | 8–1 | 2–7 |
| Away | 6–2 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | WWLWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 5 |
| Points a game | 23.6 – 18.3 | 17.6 – 29.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DEN off | Favors DEN · Favors NYJ | NYJ def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#14 | +0.15#31 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#17 | 46%#24 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#17 | 5.8#23 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#20 | 12%#28 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.05#12 | +0.25#32 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#1 | 5%#29 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#19 | -0.02#21 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#18 | 4.4#20 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#11 | 39%#12 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#16 | 68%#32 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 153#12 | 136#14 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 39#28 | 54#18 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.5#18 | 7.2#16 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#8 | 35#22 | 32 | |
Broncos: EPA per throw
Jets: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.