2025
Week 6 · Sunday 9:30 AM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Jets offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Jets, 19 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 13–11; their low point was 49% at Q4 13:42. The game turned for good at Q4 13:42: J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to NYJ 20 I.Williams to NYJ 39 for 19 yards (M.Fraboni). PENALTY on NYJ-J.Brownlee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,… (49% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:14, 22 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:14NYJJ.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by J.Cooper and B.Jones).75% → 97%
- 2Q4 8:15DENB.Nix pass short left to M.Mims pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 26 yards (A.Cisco).57% → 72%
- 3Q4 3:19DENB.Nix sacked at DEN 11 for -6 yards (J.Johnson).21% → 35%
- 4Q3 5:02DENA.B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to T.Franklin. PENALTY on DEN-Q.Meinerz, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play.…31% → 44%
- 5Q4 1:56NYJJ.Fields sacked at NYJ 49 for -5 yards (J.Strnad).63% → 72%
- ★Q4 13:42DENJ.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to NYJ 20 I.Williams to NYJ 39 for 19 yards (M.Fraboni). PENALTY on NYJ-J.Brownlee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…turning point49% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
E.Engram led the Broncos at +6.2 EPA (5 catches for 42). J.Reynolds led the Jets at +2.0 EPA (3 catches for 25).
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 19/30 | 174 | 1 | 1 | +5.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins50% | 14 | 54% | 40 | -2.8 | |
| B.Nix100% | 5 | 19% | 24 | +0.2 | |
| R.Harvey28% | 2 | 8% | 4 | -0.7 | |
| E.Engram47% | 1 | 4% | 7 | +0.3 | |
| A.Prentice18% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -1.0 | |
| J.McLaughlin10% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -0.7 | |
| M.Jr.35% | 1 | 4% | -2 | -0.8 | |
| T.Franklin58% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Engram47% | 6 | 23% | 5 | 42 | +6.0 | |
| T.Franklin58% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 19 | -3.3 | |
| R.Harvey28% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 21 | -2.6 | |
| C.Sutton80% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 17 | -0.2 | |
| M.Jr.35% | 3 | 12% | 2 | 30 | +1.9 | |
| N.Adkins38% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 23 | 1 | +2.7 |
| P.Bryant58% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 22 | +2.2 | |
| J.Dobbins50% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | |
| J.McLaughlin10% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
Defense J.Cooper 2 sacks, J.Strnad 1.5 sacks, J.Franklin-Myers 1 sack, Z.Allen 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 2/2 FG (long 57)
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Fields100% | 9/17 | 45 | 9 | -20.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall74% | 22 | 71% | 59 | -3.3 | |
| J.Fields100% | 7 | 23% | 31 | +0.8 | |
| I.Davis26% | 2 | 6% | 2 | -0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Wilson84% | 8 | 50% | 3 | 13 | -5.4 | |
| J.Reynolds88% | 3 | 19% | 3 | 25 | +2.0 | |
| A.Beck5% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 6 | +0.4 | |
| T.Johnson19% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| I.Davis26% | 1 | 6% | 1 | -1 | -1.1 | |
| A.Smith60% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | |
| M.Taylor96% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 |
Defense J.II 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 3/3 FG (long 52)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Broncos give up 8.3 targets a game to tight ends (26th), against a league average of 7.3. Jets' tight ends produce 6.2 (20th).
Deep right is open
Broncos are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.40 EPA per attempt. Jets send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Jets score a touchdown on 44% of red zone trips (31st). Broncos allow 45% (2nd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Jets average -0.13 EPA per play (29th). Broncos allow -0.08 (8th). League average is +0.01.
The Broncos lead the series 10–6 since 1999. They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | DEN 13 at NYJ 11 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | DEN 10 at NYJ 9 |
| 2023 · Wk 5 | NYJ 31 at DEN 21 |
| 2022 · Wk 7 | NYJ 16 at DEN 9 |
| 2021 · Wk 3 | NYJ 0 at DEN 26 |
2025 records
| Broncos | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 3–14 |
| Division | 5–1 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 1–4 |
| Home | 8–1 | 2–7 |
| Away | 6–2 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | WWLWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 5 |
| Points a game | 23.6 – 18.3 | 17.6 – 29.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.13#29 | -0.08#8 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 40%#29 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#29 | 4.5#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#28 | 7%#1 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#28 | -0.11#7 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#30 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#28 | -0.09#10 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#15 | 3.6#3 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#27 | 36%#5 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 44%#31 | 45%#2 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 92#31 | 128#11 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#31 | 60#24 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#20 | 8.3#26 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 35#12 | 21#2 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.