2025
Week 6 · Monday 7:15 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
vs
Bills offensevsFalcons defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bills, 17 for Falcons. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Falcons won 24–14; their low point was 33% at Q1 6:37. The Bills had been 65% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 13:52: J.Cook left end pushed ob at ATL 42 for 2 yards (D.Alford) (49% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 11:22, 17 points for the Falcons.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 11:22ATLB.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.57% → 74%
- 2Q1 8:08BUFJ.Allen pass deep middle to D.Knox for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.51% → 63%
- 3Q2 0:06BUFM.Penix pass short right to D.London for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was…10% → 20%
- 4Q1 12:09BUFJ.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer to ATL 28 for 45 yards (M.Hughes).47% → 56%
- 5Q1 0:32ATLM.Penix pass short left to D.London for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.44% → 53%
- ★Q2 13:52ATLJ.Cook left end pushed ob at ATL 42 for 2 yards (D.Alford).turning point49% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Palmer led the Bills at +4.1 EPA (2 catches for 60). B.Robinson led the Falcons at +7.7 EPA (19 carries for 170).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 15/26 | 180 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook53% | 17 | 71% | 87 | +1.9 | |
| J.Allen100% | 6 | 25% | 42 | -1.3 | |
| T.Johnson42% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Coleman86% | 6 | 23% | 3 | 11 | -6.8 | |
| K.Shakir60% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 33 | +1.0 | |
| T.Shavers49% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 27 | -0.4 | |
| T.Johnson42% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 11 | -3.8 | |
| D.Knox81% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 19 | 1 | +3.3 |
| E.Moore25% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 | |
| J.Palmer11% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 60 | +4.1 | |
| R.Davis4% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 19 | 1 | +2.3 |
Defense E.Oliver 1 sack, J.Solomon 1 sack
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.100% | 20/32 | 250 | 1 | 2 | -0.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson74% | 19 | 59% | 170 | 1 | +5.3 |
| T.Allgeier31% | 10 | 31% | 32 | 1 | -1.2 |
| M.Jr.100% | 2 | 6% | 6 | +0.3 | |
| F.Franks4% | 1 | 3% | 2 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.London97% | 16 | 52% | 10 | 158 | 1 | +4.5 |
| B.Robinson74% | 8 | 26% | 6 | 68 | +2.5 | |
| K.Pitts93% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 18 | -0.5 | |
| C.Washington80% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -3.5 | |
| T.Allgeier31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.3 |
Defense D.Alford 1 sack and 1 INT, D.Malone 1 INT, D.Onyemata 1 sack, S.Roberts 1 sack · Kicking J.Romo 1/2 FG (long 33)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Bills' run game is 1st in EPA per carry (+0.07). Falcons allow -0.02 (24th).
Deep middle is open
Falcons are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.79 EPA per attempt. Bills send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Bills take a sack on 7% of dropbacks (18th). Falcons get home on 10% (4th). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bills gain 6.0 yards per play (5th). Falcons give up 5.3 (15th), with the league at 5.4.
The Falcons lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | BUF 14 at ATL 24 |
| 2021 · Wk 17 | ATL 15 at BUF 29 |
| 2017 · Wk 4 | BUF 23 at ATL 17 |
| 2013 · Wk 13 · OT | ATL 34 at BUF 31 |
| 2009 · Wk 16 | BUF 3 at ATL 31 |
2025 records
| Bills | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Home | 7–2 | 4–4 |
| Away | 5–3 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 21.5 | 20.8 – 23.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors ATL | ATL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#2 | -0.01#15 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 49%#2 | 45%#18 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#5 | 5.3#15 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#1 | 10%#20 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#3 | -0.03#13 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#18 | 10%#4 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.07#1 | -0.02#24 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#4 | 4.4#23 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#3 | 41%#16 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#4 | 53%#4 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#20 | 144#20 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 73#2 | 46#8 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#16 | 6.0#5 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#11 | 30#17 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Falcons: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.