2025
Week 6 · Monday 7:15 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
vs
Falcons offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Falcons, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Falcons won 24–14; their low point was 33% at Q1 6:37. The Bills had been 65% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 13:52: J.Cook left end pushed ob at ATL 42 for 2 yards (D.Alford) (49% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 11:22, 17 points for the Falcons.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 11:22ATLB.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.57% → 74%
- 2Q1 8:08BUFJ.Allen pass deep middle to D.Knox for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.51% → 63%
- 3Q2 0:06ATLM.Penix pass short right to D.London for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was…10% → 20%
- 4Q1 12:09BUFJ.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer to ATL 28 for 45 yards (M.Hughes).47% → 56%
- 5Q1 0:32ATLM.Penix pass short left to D.London for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.44% → 53%
- ★Q2 13:52BUFJ.Cook left end pushed ob at ATL 42 for 2 yards (D.Alford).turning point49% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Palmer led the Bills at +4.1 EPA (2 catches for 60). B.Robinson led the Falcons at +7.7 EPA (19 carries for 170).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 15/26 | 180 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook53% | 17 | 71% | 87 | +1.9 | |
| J.Allen100% | 6 | 25% | 42 | -1.3 | |
| T.Johnson42% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Coleman86% | 6 | 23% | 3 | 11 | -6.8 | |
| K.Shakir60% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 33 | +1.0 | |
| T.Shavers49% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 27 | -0.4 | |
| T.Johnson42% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 11 | -3.8 | |
| D.Knox81% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 19 | 1 | +3.3 |
| E.Moore25% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -1.9 | |
| J.Palmer11% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 60 | +4.1 | |
| R.Davis4% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 19 | 1 | +2.3 |
Defense E.Oliver 1 sack, J.Solomon 1 sack
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.100% | 20/32 | 250 | 1 | 2 | -0.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson74% | 19 | 59% | 170 | 1 | +5.3 |
| T.Allgeier31% | 10 | 31% | 32 | 1 | -1.2 |
| M.Jr.100% | 2 | 6% | 6 | +0.3 | |
| F.Franks4% | 1 | 3% | 2 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.London97% | 16 | 52% | 10 | 158 | 1 | +4.5 |
| B.Robinson74% | 8 | 26% | 6 | 68 | +2.5 | |
| K.Pitts93% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 18 | -0.5 | |
| C.Washington80% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -3.5 | |
| T.Allgeier31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.3 |
Defense D.Alford 1 sack and 1 INT, D.Malone 1 INT, D.Onyemata 1 sack, S.Roberts 1 sack · Kicking J.Romo 1/2 FG (long 33)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Falcons average 4.6 yards per carry (7th). Bills allow 4.9 (30th).
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Bills give up 122 yards a game to wide receivers (7th), against a league average of 140. Falcons' wide receivers produce 107 (28th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Falcons succeed on 44% of plays (16th) against a defense that allows 43% (13th).
The Falcons lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | BUF 14 at ATL 24 |
| 2021 · Wk 17 | ATL 15 at BUF 29 |
| 2017 · Wk 4 | BUF 23 at ATL 17 |
| 2013 · Wk 13 · OT | ATL 34 at BUF 31 |
| 2009 · Wk 16 | BUF 3 at ATL 31 |
2025 records
| Bills | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Home | 7–2 | 4–4 |
| Away | 5–3 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 21.5 | 20.8 – 23.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ATL off | Favors ATL · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#23 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#16 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#13 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#14 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#20 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#5 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#20 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#7 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#30 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#10 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#28 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#11 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.5#14 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 54#2 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Falcons: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.