2025
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
vs
Cardinals offensevsColts defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cardinals, 17 for Colts. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Colts won 31–27; their low point was 38% at Q3 1:22. The game turned for good at Q4 8:45: D.Jones pass deep middle to A.Pierce to ARI 44 for 22 yards (M.Melton) [C.Campbell] (46% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:58, 36 points for the Colts.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:58INDJ.Brissett pass incomplete short left to T.McBride [L.Latu].61% → 97%
- 2Q4 2:00ARIJ.Brissett pass deep left to Mi.Wilson to IND 12 for 30 yards (J.Edwards).29% → 47%
- 3Q2 13:17INDJ.Brissett pass short right intended for Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by M.Blackmon at IND 4. M.Blackmon ran ob at IND 13 for 9 yards (Z.Knight).59% → 72%
- 4Q2 14:03ARID.Jones pass short left intended for M.Alie-Cox INTERCEPTED by Ma.Wilson at IND 36. Ma.Wilson to IND 27 for 9 yards (M.Alie-Cox).27% → 40%
- 5Q4 5:48INDD.Jones pass short middle to J.Downs to ARI 3 for 9 yards (Ma.Wilson; D.Taylor-Demerson) [C.Campbell]. ARI-D.Taylor-Demerson was injured during…64% → 75%
- ★Q4 8:45INDD.Jones pass deep middle to A.Pierce to ARI 44 for 22 yards (M.Melton) [C.Campbell].turning point46% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Brissett led the Cardinals at +8.4 EPA (27 of 44 for 320). D.Jones led the Colts at +5.7 EPA (22 of 30 for 212).
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Brissett100% | 27/44 | 320 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +6.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Knight51% | 11 | 46% | 34 | 1 | +0.2 |
| M.Carter44% | 9 | 38% | 34 | -1.9 | |
| J.Brissett100% | 3 | 13% | 19 | +2.2 | |
| E.Demercado4% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride90% | 11 | 28% | 8 | 72 | 1 | +3.2 |
| Z.Jones79% | 8 | 21% | 5 | 79 | +0.5 | |
| M.Carter44% | 5 | 13% | 2 | 30 | -0.1 | |
| M.Wilson75% | 5 | 13% | 4 | 44 | +1.5 | |
| G.Dortch44% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 9 | 1 | +0.2 |
| B.Knight51% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 20 | +0.8 | |
| E.Higgins45% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 34 | +3.3 | |
| M.Jr.23% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 32 | +2.9 | |
| E.Demercado4% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 |
Defense M.Wilson 1 INT, B.Browning 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 2/2 FG (long 44)
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 22/30 | 212 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor92% | 21 | 78% | 123 | 1 | +2.0 |
| D.Jones100% | 5 | 19% | 20 | 1 | +2.8 |
| A.Abdullah5% | 1 | 4% | 7 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Warren88% | 9 | 30% | 6 | 63 | 1 | +2.2 |
| J.Downs51% | 7 | 23% | 6 | 42 | 1 | +4.4 |
| J.Taylor92% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 14 | -1.8 | |
| A.Pierce81% | 4 | 13% | 2 | 48 | +2.5 | |
| M.Pittman85% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 20 | +1.4 | |
| M.Alie-Cox63% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 16 | -5.2 | |
| A.Abdullah5% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 |
Defense K.Paye 2 sacks, M.Blackmon 1 INT · Kicking M.Badgley 1/1 FG (long 45)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Colts give up 70 yards a game to tight ends (31st), against a league average of 53. Cardinals' tight ends produce 93 (1st).
Deep left is open
Colts are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.86 EPA per attempt. Cardinals send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Cardinals' run game is 29th in EPA per carry (-0.11). Colts allow -0.09 (8th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Cardinals succeed on 43% of plays (21st) against a defense that allows 45% (23rd).
The Colts lead the series 4–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | ARI 27 at IND 31 |
| 2021 · Wk 16 | IND 22 at ARI 16 |
| 2017 · Wk 2 · OT | ARI 16 at IND 13 |
| 2013 · Wk 12 | IND 11 at ARI 40 |
| 2009 · Wk 3 | IND 31 at ARI 10 |
2025 records
| Cardinals | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 8–9 |
| Division | 0–6 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 2–3 |
| Home | 1–7 | 6–3 |
| Away | 2–7 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 9 | Lost 7 |
| Points a game | 20.9 – 28.7 | 27.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ARI off | Favors ARI · Favors IND | IND def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#22 | +0.00#16 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#21 | 45%#23 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#23 | 5.4#17 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#29 | 9%#14 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#15 | +0.04#18 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#23 | 6%#25 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#29 | -0.09#8 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#24 | 3.8#5 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#9 | 44%#25 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#22 | 56%#12 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 125#23 | 168#31 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 93#1 | 70#31 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 12.8#1 | 8.4#29 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 38#6 | 24#4 | 32 | |
Cardinals: EPA per throw
Colts: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.