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DOWN X DOWN › week 6 › Cardinals at Colts

Season over · final

2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium

Colts offensevsCardinals defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Colts, 17 for Cardinals. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

ARI offense IND offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · ARI 27 · IND 31

The Colts won 31–27; their low point was 38% at Q3 1:22. The game turned for good at Q4 8:45: D.Jones pass deep middle to A.Pierce to ARI 44 for 22 yards (M.Melton) [C.Campbell] (46% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:58, 36 points for the Colts.

At kickoffIND 74%IND by 8.5 on the line

IND low point38%Q3 1:22 · down 24⁠–⁠17

Swings past 50%8times the favorite changed

Biggest swing36 ptsIND · Q4 0:58

IND wins50%ARI wins

12345Turning pointIND low 38%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q4 0:58INDJ.Brissett pass incomplete short left to T.McBride [L.Latu].61% → 97%+36
2Q4 2:00ARIJ.Brissett pass deep left to Mi.Wilson to IND 12 for 30 yards (J.Edwards).29% → 47%+17
3Q2 13:17INDJ.Brissett pass short right intended for Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by M.Blackmon at IND 4. M.Blackmon ran ob at IND 13 for 9 yards (Z.Knight).59% → 72%+13
4Q2 14:03ARID.Jones pass short left intended for M.Alie-Cox INTERCEPTED by Ma.Wilson at IND 36. Ma.Wilson to IND 27 for 9 yards (M.Alie-Cox).27% → 40%+13
5Q4 5:48INDD.Jones pass short middle to J.Downs to ARI 3 for 9 yards (Ma.Wilson; D.Taylor-Demerson) [C.Campbell]. ARI-D.Taylor-Demerson was injured during…64% → 75%+12
★Q4 8:45INDD.Jones pass deep middle to A.Pierce to ARI 44 for 22 yards (M.Melton) [C.Campbell].turning point46% → 56%+10

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 6

J.Brissett led the Cardinals at +8.4 EPA (27 of 44 for 320). D.Jones led the Colts at +5.7 EPA (22 of 30 for 212).

Cardinals

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
J.Brissett100%	27/44	320	2	1	2	+6.3

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
B.Knight51%	11	46%	34	1	+0.2
M.Carter44%	9	38%	34		-1.9
J.Brissett100%	3	13%	19		+2.2
E.Demercado4%	1	4%	1		-0.4

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
T.McBride90%	11	28%	8	72	1	+3.2
Z.Jones79%	8	21%	5	79		+0.5
M.Carter44%	5	13%	2	30		-0.1
M.Wilson75%	5	13%	4	44		+1.5
G.Dortch44%	3	8%	3	9	1	+0.2
B.Knight51%	2	5%	1	20		+0.8
E.Higgins45%	2	5%	2	34		+3.3
M.Jr.23%	2	5%	2	32		+2.9
E.Demercado4%	1	3%	0	0		-0.9

Defense M.Wilson 1 INT, B.Browning 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 2/2 FG (long 44)

Colts

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
D.Jones100%	22/30	212	2	1	1	+2.9

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
J.Taylor92%	21	78%	123	1	+2.0
D.Jones100%	5	19%	20	1	+2.8
A.Abdullah5%	1	4%	7		+0.7

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
T.Warren88%	9	30%	6	63	1	+2.2
J.Downs51%	7	23%	6	42	1	+4.4
J.Taylor92%	4	13%	4	14		-1.8
A.Pierce81%	4	13%	2	48		+2.5
M.Pittman85%	3	10%	2	20		+1.4
M.Alie-Cox63%	2	7%	1	16		-5.2
A.Abdullah5%	1	3%	1	9		+0.8

Defense K.Paye 2 sacks, M.Blackmon 1 INT · Kicking M.Badgley 1/1 FG (long 45)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Red zone touchdowns

Colts score a touchdown on 68% of red zone trips (3rd). Cardinals allow 66% (28th).

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Cardinals are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.78 EPA per attempt. Colts send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Wideouts get blanketed

Cardinals give up 137 yards a game to wide receivers (16th), against a league average of 140. Colts' wide receivers produce 154 (11th).

Wash

Explosive play rate

Call this one even. Colts create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (19th). Cardinals give them up at 11% (24th).

The series · Cardinals and Colts since 1999, and this season's records6 meetings

The Colts lead the series 4–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.

Cardinals at home1–2the Cardinals' record

In Indianapolis1–2the Cardinals' record

Most pointsCardinals 40 · Colts 312013 · 2009

Biggest winCardinals by 29 · Colts by 212013 · 2009

The last 5

2025 · Wk 6	ARI 27 at IND 31
2021 · Wk 16	IND 22 at ARI 16
2017 · Wk 2 · OT	ARI 16 at IND 13
2013 · Wk 12	IND 11 at ARI 40
2009 · Wk 3	IND 31 at ARI 10

2025 records

	Cardinals	Colts
Overall	3–14	8–9
Division	0–6	2–4
Conference	3–9	6–6
Other conference	0–5	2–3
Home	1–7	6–3
Away	2–7	2–6
Last 5	LLLLL	LLLLL
Streak	Lost 9	Lost 7
Points a game	20.9 – 28.7	27.4 – 24.2

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cardinals' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · IND offense against ARI defense

Stat	IND off	ARI def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	+0.08#7	+0.09#27	+0.01
Success rate	46%#6	49%#31	44%
Yards per play	5.9#8	5.8#25	5.4
Explosive play rate	9%#19	11%#24	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	+0.06#10	+0.15#27	+0.01
Sack rate	5%#7	5%#28	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	+0.06#2	-0.02#25	-0.05
Yards per carry	4.6#8	4.7#26	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	43%#7	46%#29	40%
Red zone TD rate	68%#3	66%#28	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	154#11	137#16	140
TE yards per game	57#10	69#30	53
TE targets per game	8.2#9	8.4#30	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	29#18	36#24	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Colts: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.528% of throws

+1.234% of throws

+0.266% of throws

Short

+0.0133% of throws

+0.0816% of throws

+0.1632% of throws

Cardinals: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.3139 throws

+0.7819 throws

+0.5142 throws