2025
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium
vs
Cowboys offensevsPanthers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cowboys, 18 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Panthers won 30–27 from as low as 22% (Q2 0:30, down 17–10). The Cowboys had been 61% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:31: B.Young pass short left to H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (D.Bland) (48% → 74%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:31CARB.Young pass short left to H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (D.Bland).turning point48% → 74%
- 2Q1 2:13DALB.Young pass short left intended for T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by D.Wilson at CAR 46. D.Wilson ran ob at CAR 25 for 21 yards (I.Ekwonu). PENALTY on…52% → 71%
- 3Q4 11:38DALD.Prescott pass deep middle to G.Pickens pushed ob at CAR 20 for 45 yards (C.Smith-Wade) [D.Brown].41% → 60%
- 4Q3 2:45DALD.Prescott pass short right to G.Pickens for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.55% → 72%
- 5Q4 0:03CARR.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD83% → 100%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Prescott led the Cowboys at +17.0 EPA (25 of 34 for 261). R.Dowdle led the Panthers at +8.9 EPA (30 carries for 183).
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 25/34 | 261 | 3 | +17.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams85% | 13 | 68% | 29 | -5.5 | |
| J.Blue9% | 3 | 16% | 0 | -1.7 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 2 | 11% | -1 | -0.8 | |
| R.Flournoy69% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Pickens84% | 11 | 32% | 9 | 168 | 1 | +16.7 |
| J.Williams85% | 8 | 24% | 5 | 5 | -4.3 | |
| R.Flournoy69% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 30 | -1.7 | |
| J.Ferguson67% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 33 | 1 | +4.7 |
| L.Schoonmaker36% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 8 | -0.3 | |
| H.Luepke27% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 7 | 1 | +2.4 |
| J.Tolbert91% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.7 | |
| B.Spann-Ford18% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 |
Defense D.Wilson 1 INT, M.Liufau 1 sack · Kicking B.Aubrey 2/2 FG (long 28)
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 17/25 | 199 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle88% | 30 | 79% | 183 | +5.9 | |
| B.Young100% | 3 | 8% | 5 | -0.3 | |
| T.Etienne12% | 3 | 8% | 17 | +2.2 | |
| D.Dallas6% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -2.0 | |
| J.Jr.21% | 1 | 3% | 11 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle88% | 5 | 24% | 4 | 56 | 1 | +3.0 |
| T.McMillan93% | 5 | 24% | 3 | 29 | 2 | -3.4 |
| T.Tremble73% | 4 | 19% | 4 | 39 | +1.6 | |
| H.Renfrow27% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 7 | +2.0 | |
| X.Legette73% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 11 | -0.2 | |
| J.Jr.21% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 36 | +2.1 | |
| M.Evans58% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 21 | +1.0 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 3/3 FG (long 55)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Cowboys
Cowboys convert 43% of third downs (8th). Panthers allow 47% (30th).
Deep left is open
Panthers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.57 EPA per attempt. Cowboys send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Panthers give up 29 yards a game to running backs (13th), against a league average of 32. Cowboys' running backs produce 18 (32nd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Cowboys create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (17th). Panthers give them up at 9% (10th).
The Cowboys lead the series 11–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | DAL 27 at CAR 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 15 | DAL 30 at CAR 14 |
| 2023 · Wk 11 | DAL 33 at CAR 10 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | CAR 28 at DAL 36 |
| 2018 · Wk 1 | DAL 8 at CAR 16 |
2025 records
| Cowboys | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7–9–1 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 4–7–1 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–3–1 | 5–3 |
| Away | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLWL | WLWLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 27.7 – 30.1 | 18.3 – 22.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cowboys' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DAL off | Favors DAL · Favors CAR | CAR def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.10#4 | +0.07#23 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 47%#5 | 45%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#2 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#17 | 9%#10 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.16#6 | +0.11#24 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#6 | 5%#27 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#8 | +0.01#27 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#6 | 4.4#21 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#8 | 47%#30 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#18 | 57%#14 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 212#1 | 130#13 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 48#20 | 61#25 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.1#10 | 6.7#11 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 18#32 | 29#13 | 32 | |
Cowboys: EPA per throw
Panthers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.