2025
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium
vs
Panthers offensevsCowboys defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Panthers, 17 for Cowboys. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Panthers won 30–27 from as low as 22% (Q2 0:30, down 17–10). The Cowboys had been 61% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:31: B.Young pass short left to H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (D.Bland) (48% → 74%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:31CARB.Young pass short left to H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (D.Bland).turning point48% → 74%
- 2Q1 2:13DALB.Young pass short left intended for T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by D.Wilson at CAR 46. D.Wilson ran ob at CAR 25 for 21 yards (I.Ekwonu). PENALTY on…52% → 71%
- 3Q4 11:38DALD.Prescott pass deep middle to G.Pickens pushed ob at CAR 20 for 45 yards (C.Smith-Wade) [D.Brown].41% → 60%
- 4Q3 2:45DALD.Prescott pass short right to G.Pickens for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.55% → 72%
- 5Q4 0:03CARR.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD83% → 100%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Prescott led the Cowboys at +17.0 EPA (25 of 34 for 261). R.Dowdle led the Panthers at +8.9 EPA (30 carries for 183).
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 25/34 | 261 | 3 | +17.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams85% | 13 | 68% | 29 | -5.5 | |
| J.Blue9% | 3 | 16% | 0 | -1.7 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 2 | 11% | -1 | -0.8 | |
| R.Flournoy69% | 1 | 5% | 3 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Pickens84% | 11 | 32% | 9 | 168 | 1 | +16.7 |
| J.Williams85% | 8 | 24% | 5 | 5 | -4.3 | |
| R.Flournoy69% | 6 | 18% | 3 | 30 | -1.7 | |
| J.Ferguson67% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 33 | 1 | +4.7 |
| L.Schoonmaker36% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 8 | -0.3 | |
| H.Luepke27% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 7 | 1 | +2.4 |
| J.Tolbert91% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.7 | |
| B.Spann-Ford18% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 |
Defense D.Wilson 1 INT, M.Liufau 1 sack · Kicking B.Aubrey 2/2 FG (long 28)
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 17/25 | 199 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle88% | 30 | 79% | 183 | +5.9 | |
| B.Young100% | 3 | 8% | 5 | -0.3 | |
| T.Etienne12% | 3 | 8% | 17 | +2.2 | |
| D.Dallas6% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -2.0 | |
| J.Jr.21% | 1 | 3% | 11 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle88% | 5 | 24% | 4 | 56 | 1 | +3.0 |
| T.McMillan93% | 5 | 24% | 3 | 29 | 2 | -3.4 |
| T.Tremble73% | 4 | 19% | 4 | 39 | +1.6 | |
| H.Renfrow27% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 7 | +2.0 | |
| X.Legette73% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 11 | -0.2 | |
| J.Jr.21% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 36 | +2.1 | |
| M.Evans58% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 21 | +1.0 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 3/3 FG (long 55)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Cowboys give up 43 yards a game to running backs (31st), against a league average of 32. Panthers' running backs produce 31 (14th).
Deep middle is open
Cowboys are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.41 EPA per attempt. Panthers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Cowboys give up 6.8 targets a game to tight ends (12th), against a league average of 7.3. Panthers' tight ends produce 5.8 (27th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Panthers gain 5.1 yards per play (26th). Cowboys give up 6.3 (31st), with the league at 5.4.
The Cowboys lead the series 11–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 6 | DAL 27 at CAR 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 15 | DAL 30 at CAR 14 |
| 2023 · Wk 11 | DAL 33 at CAR 10 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | CAR 28 at DAL 36 |
| 2018 · Wk 1 | DAL 8 at CAR 16 |
2025 records
| Cowboys | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7–9–1 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 4–7–1 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–3–1 | 5–3 |
| Away | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Last 5 | LLLWL | WLWLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 27.7 – 30.1 | 18.3 – 22.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cowboys' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CAR off | Favors CAR · Favors DAL | DAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#26 | +0.17#32 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#18 | 49%#32 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#26 | 6.3#31 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#24 | 12%#31 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.06#25 | +0.22#31 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#13 | 6%#24 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.05#17 | +0.05#30 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#14 | 4.7#27 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 37%#25 | 48%#32 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#20 | 67%#29 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 131#19 | 171#32 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 37#30 | 52#15 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#27 | 6.8#12 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#14 | 43#31 | 32 | |
Panthers: EPA per throw
Cowboys: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.