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2025 season · Dec 25 to Dec 29 · 16 games

Week 17 in review

What happened this week: every game's swings in one strip, the plays that decided them, the offenses and defenses that had their day, the players who carried them, and whose role moved.

16 of 16 final
The short version
  • UpsetThe Vikings beat the Lions 23–10 as a 24% underdog at kickoff, the longest odds anyone overcame this week.
  • ComebackThe Dolphins were down to 14% against the Buccaneers and won 20–17.
  • WildestJaguars at Colts: the lead changed hands 3 times; the Jaguars won 23–17, and the biggest swing was 19 points at Q4 7:59.
  • Best offenseThe Patriots: +0.49 EPA a play against the Jets, +0.42 against their usual.
  • Best defenseThe Seahawks held the Panthers to −0.51 EPA a play, −0.40 against what they usually allow.
  • PlayerDrake Maye (NE QB): +32.9 EPA, 19/21, 256 yds, 5 TD · 3-22 rush.

The gamesevery final with its win-probability line

Scoreboard · Week 17
Games final16 of 16
Overtime0
Comebacks4
Upsets7
Points716
Biggest swing46 pts
DALCowboys30WASCommanders23
Biggest swing 7 pts · Q1 13:12
Led all the way
DETLions10MINVikings23
Biggest swing 22 pts · Q4 3:52
Upset · 24% at kickoffComeback from 17%
DENBroncos20KCChiefs13
Biggest swing 11 pts · Q4 2:00
Led all the way
HOUTexans20LACChargers16
Biggest swing 15 pts · Q2 1:52
Upset · 48% at kickoff
BALRavens41GBPackers24
Biggest swing 12 pts · Q3 2:44
Upset · 44% at kickoff
SEASeahawks27CARPanthers10
Biggest swing 13 pts · Q3 12:06
Led all the way
ARICardinals14CINBengals37
Biggest swing 8 pts · Q1 12:04
Led all the way
PITSteelers6CLEBrowns13
Biggest swing 20 pts · Q2 5:03
Upset · 31% at kickoff
JAXJaguars23INDColts17
Biggest swing 19 pts · Q4 7:59
TBBuccaneers17MIADolphins20
Biggest swing 13 pts · Q4 7:05
Upset · 29% at kickoffComeback from 14%
NEPatriots42NYJJets10
Biggest swing 5 pts · Q1 10:46
Led all the way
NOSaints34TENTitans26
Biggest swing 22 pts · Q2 4:02
Comeback from 18%
NYGGiants34LVRaiders10
Biggest swing 21 pts · Q1 2:50
PHIEagles13BUFBills12
Biggest swing 30 pts · Q4 0:05
Upset · 42% at kickoff
CHIBears38SF49ers42
Biggest swing 46 pts · Q4 0:04
LARams24ATLFalcons27
Biggest swing 20 pts · Q3 0:43
Upset · 24% at kickoffComeback from 21%

Each line is the winner's chance of winning, snap by snap, from nflverse's spread-adjusted model: above the dashed middle (shaded in the winner's color) they were favored, below it (shaded grey) they were behind. Overtime is left off the line, as on the game page. A comeback is a winner who fell below 25%; an upset is a winner who was under 50% at kickoff; lead changes count the score changing hands. Click a game for the full chart, the box score and the plays that swung it.

The playsthe ones that moved games, and the ones that moved the ball

The biggest swingspoints of win probability, for the team they helped
  1. 1SF49ers · Q4 0:04 · CHI at SFC.Williams pass incomplete short left to J.Walker [Y.Gross-Matos]. CHI-L.Burden was injured during the play.+4654% → 100%
  2. 2PHIEagles · Q4 0:05 · PHI at BUFTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Allen pass to K.Shakir is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.+3060% → 90%
  3. 3SF49ers · Q4 2:23 · CHI at SFB.Purdy pass deep middle to J.Jennings for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2948% → 77%
  4. 4BUFBills · Q4 0:08 · PHI at BUFA.J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.+2912% → 41%
  5. 5NOSaints · Q2 4:02 · NO at TENC.Ward sacked at TEN 33 for -11 yards (C.Young). FUMBLES (C.Young) [C.Young], RECOVERED by NO-C.Young at TEN 33. C.Young for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2225% → 47%
  6. 6MINVikings · Q4 3:52 · DET at MINJ.Addison right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+2268% → 90%
  7. 7NOSaints · Q4 7:59 · NO at TENT.Shough pass deep left to C.Olave to TEN 8 for 60 yards (D.Baker) [J.Harrell].+2125% → 46%
  8. 8PHIEagles · Q1 4:13 · PHI at BUFJ.Allen sacked at PHI 29 for -6 yards (J.Phillips). FUMBLES (J.Phillips), touched at PHI 28, RECOVERED by PHI-J.Campbell at BUF 45.+2127% → 48%
  9. 9NYGGiants · Q1 2:50 · NYG at LVG.Smith pass short right intended for M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by B.Okereke [D.Alexander] at NYG 9. B.Okereke to LV 44 for 47 yards (A.Jeanty).+2146% → 67%
  10. 10PITSteelers · Q2 5:03 · PIT at CLES.Sanders pass short right intended for S.Cannella INTERCEPTED by J.Sawyer (L.Lee) [A.Highsmith] at PIT 42. J.Sawyer to CLE 31 for 27 yards…+2035% → 55%
The best plays by EPAexpected points added on one snap
  1. 1DALCowboys · Q2 7:11 · vs WAS · KaVontae TurpinD.Prescott pass deep middle to K.Turpin for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-F.Luvu, Defensive Offside, declined.+8.0EPA
  2. 2ATLFalcons · Q2 1:41 · vs LA · Bijan RobinsonB.Robinson right tackle for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.7EPA
  3. 3TENTitans · Q2 13:08 · vs NO · Chig OkonkwoC.Ward pass short left to C.Okonkwo for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.4EPA
  4. 4HOUTexans · Q1 13:30 · vs LAC · Jayden HigginsC.Stroud pass deep middle to J.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.3EPA
  5. 5MIADolphins · Q1 4:37 · vs TB · Theo Wease Jr.Q.Ewers pass deep left to T.Wease for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+6.2EPA
  6. 6MINVikings · Q4 3:52 · vs DET · Jordan AddisonJ.Addison right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.9EPA
  7. 7LARams · Q3 13:32 · vs ATL · Xavier SmithM.Stafford pass deep middle to X.Smith pushed ob at ATL 15 for 36 yards.+5.7EPA
  8. 8WASCommanders · Q3 9:44 · vs DAL · Jacory Croskey-MerrittJ.Croskey-Merritt right tackle for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.5EPA
  9. 9NYJJets · Q4 15:00 · vs NE · Breece HallB.Hall up the middle for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.+5.0EPA
  10. 10LACChargers · Q2 1:52 · vs HOU · Quentin JohnstonJ.Herbert pass deep left to Q.Johnston to HOU 14 for 60 yards.+4.9EPA

Teamswho had their day, by EPA a play

OffensesEPA a play this week, against their season
1NEPatriotsat NYJ · W 42–10+0.49+0.42 vs usual
2BALRavensat GB · W 41–24+0.37+0.36 vs usual
3CHIBearsat SF · L 38–42+0.36+0.31 vs usual
4CINBengalsvs ARI · W 37–14+0.34+0.37 vs usual
5SF49ersvs CHI · W 42–38+0.29+0.24 vs usual
6NOSaintsat TEN · W 34–26+0.25+0.35 vs usual
7NYGGiantsat LV · W 34–10+0.24+0.24 vs usual
8DALCowboysat WAS · W 30–23+0.21+0.13 vs usual
9WASCommandersvs DAL · L 23–30+0.20+0.20 vs usual
10ATLFalconsvs LA · W 27–24+0.12+0.15 vs usual
11GBPackersvs BAL · L 24–41+0.11−0.01 vs usual
12MIADolphinsvs TB · W 20–17+0.11+0.13 vs usual
13DENBroncosat KC · W 20–13+0.10+0.07 vs usual
14TBBuccaneersat MIA · L 17–20+0.04+0.05 vs usual
15JAXJaguarsat IND · W 23–17+0.01−0.03 vs usual
16ARICardinalsat CIN · L 14–37−0.05−0.03 vs usual
17SEASeahawksat CAR · W 27–10−0.05−0.11 vs usual
18LARamsat ATL · L 24–27−0.10−0.26 vs usual
19PHIEaglesat BUF · W 13–12−0.12−0.15 vs usual
20BUFBillsvs PHI · L 12–13−0.12−0.28 vs usual
21HOUTexansat LAC · W 20–16−0.15−0.13 vs usual
22TENTitansvs NO · L 26–34−0.18−0.02 vs usual
23NYJJetsvs NE · L 10–42−0.20−0.08 vs usual
24KCChiefsvs DEN · L 13–20−0.20−0.24 vs usual
25PITSteelersat CLE · L 6–13−0.20−0.21 vs usual
26INDColtsvs JAX · L 17–23−0.21−0.29 vs usual
27LACChargersvs HOU · L 16–20−0.22−0.19 vs usual
28LVRaidersvs NYG · L 10–34−0.220.00 vs usual
29CLEBrownsvs PIT · W 13–6−0.23−0.05 vs usual
30MINVikingsvs DET · W 23–10−0.28−0.17 vs usual
31DETLionsat MIN · L 10–23−0.46−0.58 vs usual
32CARPanthersvs SEA · L 10–27−0.51−0.49 vs usual

EPA a play counts every pass and run in the game, scrambles and sacks included. "Vs usual" compares it with the same team's average in its other games this season, so a good offense having an ordinary day reads as a dip. Each team links to its offense or defense tab.

Playersthe best games by position, by EPA

Quarterbackspassing and rushing EPA this week
  1. 110Drake MayeNE vs NYJ · 19/21, 256 yds, 5 TD · 3-22 rush+32.9
  2. 29Joe BurrowCIN vs ARI · 24/31, 305 yds, 2 TD · 3-2 rush+20.7
  3. 318Caleb WilliamsCHI vs SF · 25/42, 330 yds, 2 TD · 5-18 rush+18.0
  4. 46Tyler ShoughNO vs TEN · 22/27, 333 yds, 2 TD · 4-6 rush+17.3
  5. 52Malik WillisGB vs BAL · 18/21, 288 yds, 1 TD · 9-60 rush+16.6
  6. 613Brock PurdySF vs CHI · 24/33, 303 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 6-28 rush+16.1
  7. 74Dak PrescottDAL vs WAS · 19/37, 307 yds, 2 TD · 4-24 rush+12.3
  8. 86Jaxson DartNYG vs LV · 22/30, 207 yds · 9-48 rush+11.5
Backsrushing and receiving EPA this week
  1. 122Derrick HenryBAL vs GB · 36 car, 216 yds, 4 TD+16.6
  2. 226Zach CharbonnetSEA vs CAR · 18 car, 110 yds, 2 TD · 2-12 rec+10.9
  3. 37Bijan RobinsonATL vs LA · 22 car, 195 yds, 1 TD · 5-34 rec+6.4
  4. 438Rhamondre StevensonNE vs NYJ · 8 car, 47 yds, 1 TD · 5-55 rec+5.8
  5. 530Audric EstiméNO vs TEN · 14 car, 94 yds, 1 TD · 1-4 rec+5.5
  6. 622Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS vs DAL · 11 car, 105 yds, 2 TD+5.0
  7. 74D'Andre SwiftCHI vs SF · 9 car, 54 yds, 2 TD · 2-25 rec+4.9
  8. 820Breece HallNYJ vs NE · 14 car, 111 yds, 1 TD · 2-18 rec+3.9
Fantasy pointsthe week's top scorers
  1. 122Derrick HenryBAL vs GB · RB45.6
  2. 213Brock PurdySF vs CHI · QB36.9
  3. 37Bijan RobinsonATL vs LA · RB34.9
  4. 410Drake MayeNE vs NYJ · QB32.4
  5. 52Malik WillisGB vs BAL · QB31.5
  6. 630Chase BrownCIN vs ARI · RB26.1
  7. 76Jaxson DartNYG vs LV · QB25.1
  8. 826Zach CharbonnetSEA vs CAR · RB24.2
  9. 923Christian McCaffreySF vs CHI · RB24.1
  10. 1017Josh AllenBUF vs PHI · QB23.2
  11. 1116Trevor LawrenceJAX vs IND · QB23.1
  12. 1218Caleb WilliamsCHI vs SF · QB23.0
  13. 134Dak PrescottDAL vs WAS · QB22.7
  14. 1422Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS vs DAL · RB22.5
  15. 1538Rhamondre StevensonNE vs NYJ · RB22.2
  16. 166Tyler ShoughNO vs TEN · QB21.9
  1. 122Derrick HenryBAL vs GB · RB45.6
  2. 27Bijan RobinsonATL vs LA · RB37.4
  3. 313Brock PurdySF vs CHI · QB36.9
  4. 410Drake MayeNE vs NYJ · QB32.4
  5. 52Malik WillisGB vs BAL · QB31.5
  6. 630Chase BrownCIN vs ARI · RB27.6
  7. 723Christian McCaffreySF vs CHI · RB26.1
  8. 826Zach CharbonnetSEA vs CAR · RB25.2
  9. 96Jaxson DartNYG vs LV · QB25.1
  10. 1038Rhamondre StevensonNE vs NYJ · RB24.7
  11. 1110Luther Burden IIICHI vs SF · WR23.8
  12. 1217Josh AllenBUF vs PHI · QB23.2
  13. 1316Trevor LawrenceJAX vs IND · QB23.1
  14. 1418Caleb WilliamsCHI vs SF · QB23.0
  15. 154Dak PrescottDAL vs WAS · QB22.7
  16. 1622Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS vs DAL · RB22.5
  1. 122Derrick HenryBAL vs GB · RB45.6
  2. 27Bijan RobinsonATL vs LA · RB39.9
  3. 313Brock PurdySF vs CHI · QB36.9
  4. 410Drake MayeNE vs NYJ · QB32.4
  5. 52Malik WillisGB vs BAL · QB31.5
  6. 630Chase BrownCIN vs ARI · RB29.1
  7. 723Christian McCaffreySF vs CHI · RB28.1
  8. 810Luther Burden IIICHI vs SF · WR27.8
  9. 938Rhamondre StevensonNE vs NYJ · RB27.2
  10. 1026Zach CharbonnetSEA vs CAR · RB26.2
  11. 1112Chris OlaveNO vs TEN · WR25.9
  12. 126Jaxson DartNYG vs LV · QB25.1
  13. 131Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs ARI · WR25.0
  14. 1414Chris Godwin Jr.TB vs MIA · WR23.8
  15. 1585Trey McBrideARI vs CIN · TE23.6
  16. 1617Josh AllenBUF vs PHI · QB23.2
Wide receiversreceiving EPA this week
  1. 110Luther Burden IIICHI vs SF · 8/9, 138 yds, 1 TD+11.1
  2. 28Stefon DiggsNE vs NYJ · 6/6, 101 yds, 1 TD+10.9
  3. 312Chris OlaveNO vs TEN · 8/11, 119 yds, 1 TD+9.6
  4. 41Ricky PearsallSF vs CHI · 5/8, 85 yds+9.2
  5. 514Chris Godwin Jr.TB vs MIA · 7/8, 108 yds, 1 TD+8.5
  6. 69Christian WatsonGB vs BAL · 5/6, 113 yds, 1 TD+8.2
  7. 79KaVontae TurpinDAL vs WAS · 1/1, 86 yds, 1 TD+8.0
  8. 83George PickensDAL vs WAS · 4/5, 78 yds+7.0
Tight endsreceiving EPA this week
  1. 184Colston LovelandCHI vs SF · 6/10, 94 yds, 1 TD+8.6
  2. 283Juwan JohnsonNO vs TEN · 4/4, 95 yds+6.9
  3. 388AJ BarnerSEA vs CAR · 3/3, 43 yds, 1 TD+6.0
  4. 485Hunter HenryNE vs NYJ · 3/3, 49 yds, 1 TD+5.9
  5. 585Greg DulcichMIA vs TB · 5/6, 58 yds, 1 TD+5.3
  6. 687Tanner HudsonCIN vs ARI · 2/2, 31 yds+4.7
  7. 785Brenton StrangeJAX vs IND · 3/5, 54 yds+4.4
  8. 884Tyler WarrenIND vs JAX · 5/5, 43 yds+4.2

Moverswhose role broke from his own season

Movers · Week 17 · against his own season409 played

The biggest swing in snaps in Week 17: Josh Johnson (Commanders) took 98% of the snaps, up 82 points on his season; Joe Flacco (Bengals) fell to 17% from 90.

Snap sharepoints of the snaps

▲ Climbers
14Josh JohnsonWAS · QB+82 pts16% → 98%12Max BrosmerMIN · QB+64 pts36% → 100%11Dante PettisNO · WR+64 pts6% → 69%18Kyle WilliamsNE · WR+59 pts26% → 85%20Jahdae WalkerCHI · WR+57 pts5% → 62%
▼ Fallers
16Joe FlaccoCIN · QB−73 pts90% → 17%44Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · TE−57 pts80% → 23%17Jaylen WaddleMIA · WR−56 pts81% → 25%0Ja'Tavion SandersCAR · TE−50 pts52% → 2%22Rashid ShaheedSEA · WR−46 pts64% → 18%

Target sharepoints of team targets, QBs excluded

▲ Climbers
87Michael MayerLV · TE+25 pts11% → 36%88Jake TongesSF · TE+21 pts6% → 27%7Bijan RobinsonATL · RB+21 pts19% → 40%11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingPIT · WR+20 pts4% → 24%17Wan'Dale RobinsonNYG · WR+19 pts29% → 48%
▼ Fallers
5Drake LondonATL · WR−22 pts32% → 10%17Jaylen WaddleMIA · WR−20 pts25% → 5%18Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · WR−17 pts19% → 3%15Ladd McConkeyLAC · WR−16 pts22% → 7%44Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · TE−14 pts23% → 9%

EPAthe week against his per-game average

▲ Climbers
10Drake MayeNE · QB+20.6 EPA+8.6 → +29.26Tyler ShoughNO · QB+19.7 EPA-1.5 → +18.222Derrick HenryBAL · RB+17.2 EPA-0.7 → +16.518Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB+16.1 EPA+1.7 → +17.99Joe BurrowCIN · QB+15.5 EPA+3.5 → +19.0
▼ Fallers
9Bryce YoungCAR · QB−20.6 EPA-0.5 → -21.117Josh AllenBUF · QB−14.8 EPA+5.4 → -9.416Jared GoffDET · QB−14.7 EPA+6.8 → -7.98Aaron RodgersPIT · QB−14.7 EPA+2.4 → -12.34Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR−13.5 EPA+2.1 → -11.4
New faces20Jahdae WalkerCHI · WR · first start-level week, 62% of the snaps87Sal CannellaCLE · TE · debut, 35% of the snaps88Giovanni RicciDET · TE · first start-level week, 50% of the snaps86Efton Chism IIINE · WR · first start-level week, 62% of the snaps11Dante PettisNO · WR · first start-level week, 69% of the snaps80Moliki MatavaoNO · TE · first start-level week, 50% of the snaps

Each row compares his last full week with his average over the games he had played before it, so a mover broke from his own pattern. Boards list the 5 biggest climbers, then the 5 biggest fallers, past a floor (12 points of snap share, 6 of target share, 4.0 EPA). The sparkline is his season; the dot is that week. New faces took their first snap that week with 25% or more, or passed 50% for the first time.