2025
Week 17 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · FirstEnergy Stadium
vs
Steelers offensevsBrowns defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Steelers, 17 for Browns. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Browns won 13–6; their low point was 31% at Q1 14:55. The Steelers had been 69% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 14:21: A.Rodgers pass short left to J.Smith to CLE 31 for -4 yards (T.Campbell) (46% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 5:03, 20 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 5:03CLES.Sanders pass short right intended for S.Cannella INTERCEPTED by J.Sawyer (L.Lee) [A.Highsmith] at PIT 42. J.Sawyer to CLE 31 for 27 yards…35% → 54%
- 2Q2 2:50PITA.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to S.Miller.48% → 62%
- 3Q4 12:12CLES.Sanders pass deep left intended for J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by K.Dugger at PIT 34. K.Dugger to PIT 34 for no gain (J.Jeudy).30% → 43%
- 4Q4 0:21PITA.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to M.Valdes-Scantling (D.Ward).86% → 99%
- 5Q4 1:19PITA.Rodgers pass short middle to P.Freiermuth to CLE 21 for 29 yards (R.Jenkins).12% → 23%
- ★Q4 14:21PITA.Rodgers pass short left to J.Smith to CLE 31 for -4 yards (T.Campbell).turning point46% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Washington led the Steelers at +3.6 EPA (2 catches for 15). C.Tillman led the Browns at +2.8 EPA (1 catches for 42).
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 21/39 | 168 | 2 | -12.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren32% | 12 | 50% | 64 | +1.7 | |
| K.Gainwell68% | 7 | 29% | 26 | -3.3 | |
| J.Smith41% | 2 | 8% | 9 | +0.0 | |
| C.Heyward9% | 2 | 8% | 26 | +1.3 | |
| A.Rodgers100% | 1 | 4% | 6 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Valdes-Scantling82% | 9 | 24% | 3 | 21 | -5.4 | |
| S.Miller64% | 7 | 19% | 3 | 25 | -5.2 | |
| A.Thielen86% | 5 | 14% | 2 | 14 | -3.5 | |
| J.Smith41% | 5 | 14% | 5 | 18 | -0.4 | |
| P.Freiermuth70% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 63 | +2.3 | |
| K.Gainwell68% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 12 | -1.4 | |
| D.Washington14% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 15 | +3.6 |
Defense A.Highsmith 2 sacks, K.Dugger 1 INT, J.Sawyer 1 INT · Kicking C.Boswell 2/3 FG (long 44)
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Sanders100% | 17/23 | 186 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -5.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Sampson35% | 11 | 44% | 27 | -4.8 | |
| R.Sanders42% | 8 | 32% | 21 | -2.9 | |
| S.Sanders100% | 4 | 16% | 20 | +0.4 | |
| T.Williams23% | 2 | 8% | 10 | +1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jeudy94% | 7 | 30% | 5 | 54 | +0.1 | |
| S.Cannella35% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 11 | -8.2 | |
| D.Sampson35% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 0 | -2.1 | |
| R.Sanders42% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 10 | +0.1 | |
| H.Jr.23% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 30 | 1 | +1.7 |
| B.Whiteheart62% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| C.Tillman58% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 42 | +2.8 | |
| B.Bates48% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 19 | +1.3 | |
| M.Corley38% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.5 | |
| I.Bond23% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 16 | +1.8 |
Defense G.Delpit 1 sack, A.Wright 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 2/2 FG (long 50)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Browns give up 7.1 targets a game to tight ends (14th), against a league average of 7.3. Steelers' tight ends produce 8.9 (4th).
Deep middle is open
Browns are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Steelers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Browns give up 110 yards a game to wide receivers (1st), against a league average of 140. Steelers' wide receivers produce 101 (29th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Steelers create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (23rd). Browns give them up at 9% (13th).
The Steelers lead the series 43–14–1 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Acrisure Stadium: the Steelers won 27–6. Aaron Rodgers started at quarterback for the Steelers and Deshaun Watson for the Browns; Mike McCarthy and Todd Monken coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | CLE 6 at PIT 27 |
| 2026 · Wk 4 | PIT 24 at CLE 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | PIT 6 at CLE 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 6 | CLE 9 at PIT 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | CLE 14 at PIT 27 |
2025 records
| Steelers | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10–7 | 5–12 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 4–8 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 6–3 | 3–6 |
| Away | 4–4 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LLLWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 23.4 – 22.8 | 16.4 – 22.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Steelers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PIT off | Favors PIT · Favors CLE | CLE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | 0.00#18 | -0.09#4 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#19 | 40%#4 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#21 | 4.9#5 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#23 | 9%#13 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#21 | -0.13#3 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#12 | 10%#3 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#7 | -0.07#15 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#12 | 4.2#17 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#17 | 37%#8 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#15 | 63%#22 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 101#29 | 110#1 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#7 | 52#16 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#4 | 7.1#14 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 48#3 | 27#8 | 32 | |
Steelers: EPA per throw
Browns: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.