2025
Week 17 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium
vs
Saints offensevsTitans defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Saints, 17 for Titans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Saints won 34–26 from as low as 18% (Q4 9:06, down 26–20). The game turned for good at Q4 6:26: T.Shough pass short left to K.Austin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN (42% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 4:02, 22 points for the Saints.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 4:02NOC.Ward sacked at TEN 33 for -11 yards (C.Young). FUMBLES (C.Young) [C.Young], RECOVERED by NO-C.Young at TEN 33. C.Young for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.25% → 47%
- 2Q4 7:59NOT.Shough pass deep left to C.Olave to TEN 8 for 60 yards (D.Baker) [J.Harrell].25% → 46%
- 3Q2 13:08TENC.Ward pass short left to C.Okonkwo for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.59% → 78%
- 4Q2 1:05TENC.Ward pass incomplete deep left to C.Dike. PENALTY on NO-J.Reid, Defensive Pass Interference, 50 yards, enforced at TEN 43 - No Play.52% → 69%
- 5Q4 11:22TENT.Shough pass short left to D.Pettis to TEN 3 for 32 yards (K.Hall). FUMBLES (K.Hall), RECOVERED by TEN-K.Elam at TEN -9. Touchback.64% → 80%
- ★Q4 6:26NOT.Shough pass short left to K.Austin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.turning point42% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Shough led the Saints at +17.3 EPA (22 of 27 for 333). V.Jefferson led the Titans at +3.8 EPA (3 catches for 46).
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Shough98% | 22/27 | 333 | 2 | 2 | +18.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Estimé76% | 14 | 61% | 94 | 1 | +5.6 |
| T.Shough98% | 4 | 17% | 6 | -0.9 | |
| T.Hill13% | 3 | 13% | 0 | -2.9 | |
| E.Hull20% | 2 | 9% | 3 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave91% | 11 | 41% | 8 | 119 | 1 | +9.6 |
| K.Jr.81% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 52 | 1 | +3.0 |
| D.Pettis69% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 53 | -3.4 | |
| J.Johnson72% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 95 | +6.9 | |
| M.Matavao50% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 10 | +0.2 | |
| A.Estimé76% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.1 |
Defense C.Young 1.5 sacks, C.Jordan 1 sack, J.Williams 1 sack, D.Davis 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Smyth 2/3 FG (long 57)
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 21/40 | 251 | 2 | 4 | -8.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard50% | 18 | 64% | 85 | -0.4 | |
| T.Spears53% | 6 | 21% | 2 | -4.9 | |
| C.Ward100% | 2 | 7% | 10 | 0.0 | |
| K.Mullings1% | 1 | 4% | 4 | +0.6 | |
| C.Dike78% | 1 | 4% | 7 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Okonkwo51% | 7 | 20% | 3 | 55 | 1 | +3.6 |
| E.Ayomanor81% | 7 | 20% | 4 | 37 | 1 | +2.6 |
| J.Proche54% | 5 | 14% | 1 | 5 | -2.0 | |
| C.Dike78% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 55 | +0.5 | |
| V.Jefferson31% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 46 | +3.8 | |
| T.Pollard50% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 10 | +0.5 | |
| T.Spears53% | 2 | 6% | 1 | -1 | -1.5 | |
| G.Helm58% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 1 | -0.7 | |
| M.Kinsey11% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 34 | +2.2 | |
| D.Martin-Robinson11% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 |
Defense J.Simmons 1 sack, J.Lynch 0.5 sacks, J.Harrell 0.5 sacks · Kicking J.Slye 4/4 FG (long 58)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Titans give up 166 yards a game to wide receivers (28th), against a league average of 140. Saints' wide receivers produce 146 (15th).
Deep middle is open
Titans are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.30 EPA per attempt. Saints send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Titans give up 27 yards a game to running backs (7th), against a league average of 32. Saints' running backs produce 25 (24th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Saints average -0.09 EPA per play (27th). Titans allow +0.10 (28th). League average is +0.01.
The Titans lead the series 5–4 since 1999. The Saints have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 17 | NO 34 at TEN 26 |
| 2023 · Wk 1 | TEN 15 at NO 16 |
| 2021 · Wk 10 | NO 21 at TEN 23 |
| 2019 · Wk 16 | NO 38 at TEN 28 |
| 2015 · Wk 9 · OT | TEN 34 at NO 28 |
2025 records
| Saints | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 3–14 |
| Division | 3–3 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Home | 3–5 | 1–8 |
| Away | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WLWLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 18.0 – 22.5 | 16.7 – 28.1 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Saints' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NO off | Favors NO · Favors TEN | TEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#27 | +0.10#28 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#25 | 45%#22 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#27 | 6.0#28 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 6%#32 | 11%#22 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#27 | +0.17#29 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#22 | 8%#9 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.15#31 | -0.02#22 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#31 | 4.2#18 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#19 | 42%#19 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 43%#32 | 67%#31 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 146#15 | 166#28 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 60#9 | 56#21 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#15 | 7.1#15 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#24 | 27#7 | 32 | |
Saints: EPA per throw
Titans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.