2025
Week 17 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
vs
Rams offensevsFalcons defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 20 games for Rams, 17 for Falcons. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Falcons won 27–24 from as low as 21% (Q1 13:41, tied 0–0). The Rams had been 76% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:42: K.Cousins pass short middle to K.Pitts to ATL 46 for 11 yards (K.Kinchens) [B.Young] (47% → 63%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 0:43, 20 points for the Rams.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 0:43ATLZ.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (J.Verse), RECOVERED by LA-J.Verse at LA 24. J.Verse for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 29%
- 2Q4 0:25ATLZ.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD74% → 91%
- 3Q4 9:13LAM.Stafford pass short left intended for T.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by X.Watts at ATL 25. X.Watts ran ob at LA 43 for 32 yards (M.Stafford). PENALTY on…69% → 84%
- 4Q4 2:42ATLK.Cousins pass short middle to K.Pitts to ATL 46 for 11 yards (K.Kinchens) [B.Young].turning point47% → 63%
- 5Q2 8:42LAM.Stafford pass short middle intended for K.Mumpfield INTERCEPTED by J.Bates at LA 34. J.Bates for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.45% → 60%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
X.Smith led the Rams at +5.6 EPA (4 catches for 67). B.Robinson led the Falcons at +6.4 EPA (22 carries for 195).
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 22/38 | 269 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams71% | 13 | 65% | 92 | -2.3 | |
| B.Corum25% | 6 | 30% | 18 | -1.6 | |
| R.Rivers5% | 1 | 5% | 5 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua74% | 10 | 28% | 5 | 47 | 1 | +1.7 |
| C.Parkinson78% | 7 | 19% | 6 | 53 | +3.0 | |
| X.Smith51% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 67 | +5.6 | |
| K.Mumpfield66% | 5 | 14% | 2 | 10 | -9.0 | |
| T.Ferguson49% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 54 | 1 | -1.5 |
| K.Williams71% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 38 | +2.9 | |
| T.Atwell20% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking H.Mevis 1/1 FG (long 35)
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins100% | 13/20 | 126 | 1 | +4.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson79% | 22 | 67% | 195 | 1 | +4.9 |
| T.Allgeier36% | 10 | 30% | 23 | -3.4 | |
| K.Cousins100% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson79% | 8 | 40% | 5 | 34 | 1 | +1.5 |
| D.Sills15% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 37 | +0.6 | |
| D.Mooney70% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 35 | +4.0 | |
| K.Pitts92% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 16 | -0.5 | |
| D.London98% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 4 | -0.7 |
Defense X.Watts 2 INT, J.Bates 1 INT, L.Floyd 1 sack, R.Orhorhoro 1 sack · Kicking Z.Gonzalez 2/3 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Rams average 4.9 yards per carry (2nd). Falcons allow 4.4 (23rd).
Deep middle is open
Falcons are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.79 EPA per attempt. Rams send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Falcons give up 30 yards a game to running backs (17th), against a league average of 32. Rams' running backs produce 21 (30th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Rams average +0.14 EPA per play (1st). Falcons allow -0.01 (15th). League average is +0.01.
The Rams lead the series 10–8 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 17 | LA 24 at ATL 27 |
| 2022 · Wk 2 | ATL 27 at LA 31 |
| 2019 · Wk 7 | LA 37 at ATL 10 |
| 2017 · Wk 18 · playoffs | ATL 26 at LA 13 |
| 2016 · Wk 14 | ATL 42 at LA 14 |
2025 records
| Rams | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 1–4 |
| Home | 7–1 | 4–4 |
| Away | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WWLLW | LWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 30.5 – 20.4 | 20.8 – 23.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Rams' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LA off | Favors LA · Favors ATL | ATL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#1 | -0.01#15 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 51%#1 | 45%#18 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.3#1 | 5.3#15 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#6 | 10%#20 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.22#2 | -0.03#13 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#3 | 10%#4 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.04#4 | -0.02#24 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.9#2 | 4.4#23 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#21 | 41%#16 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 65%#7 | 53%#4 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 192#2 | 144#20 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 69#4 | 46#8 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 6.0#5 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#30 | 30#17 | 32 | |
Rams: EPA per throw
Falcons: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.