2025
Week 17 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
vs
Falcons offensevsRams defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Falcons, 20 for Rams. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Falcons won 27–24 from as low as 21% (Q1 13:41, tied 0–0). The Rams had been 76% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:42: K.Cousins pass short middle to K.Pitts to ATL 46 for 11 yards (K.Kinchens) [B.Young] (47% → 63%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 0:43, 20 points for the Rams.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 0:43ATLZ.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (J.Verse), RECOVERED by LA-J.Verse at LA 24. J.Verse for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 29%
- 2Q4 0:25ATLZ.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD74% → 91%
- 3Q4 9:13LAM.Stafford pass short left intended for T.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by X.Watts at ATL 25. X.Watts ran ob at LA 43 for 32 yards (M.Stafford). PENALTY on…69% → 84%
- 4Q4 2:42ATLK.Cousins pass short middle to K.Pitts to ATL 46 for 11 yards (K.Kinchens) [B.Young].turning point47% → 63%
- 5Q2 8:42LAM.Stafford pass short middle intended for K.Mumpfield INTERCEPTED by J.Bates at LA 34. J.Bates for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.45% → 60%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
X.Smith led the Rams at +5.6 EPA (4 catches for 67). B.Robinson led the Falcons at +6.4 EPA (22 carries for 195).
Rams
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Stafford100% | 22/38 | 269 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Williams71% | 13 | 65% | 92 | -2.3 | |
| B.Corum25% | 6 | 30% | 18 | -1.6 | |
| R.Rivers5% | 1 | 5% | 5 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua74% | 10 | 28% | 5 | 47 | 1 | +1.7 |
| C.Parkinson78% | 7 | 19% | 6 | 53 | +3.0 | |
| X.Smith51% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 67 | +5.6 | |
| K.Mumpfield66% | 5 | 14% | 2 | 10 | -9.0 | |
| T.Ferguson49% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 54 | 1 | -1.5 |
| K.Williams71% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 38 | +2.9 | |
| T.Atwell20% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking H.Mevis 1/1 FG (long 35)
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins100% | 13/20 | 126 | 1 | +4.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson79% | 22 | 67% | 195 | 1 | +4.9 |
| T.Allgeier36% | 10 | 30% | 23 | -3.4 | |
| K.Cousins100% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson79% | 8 | 40% | 5 | 34 | 1 | +1.5 |
| D.Sills15% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 37 | +0.6 | |
| D.Mooney70% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 35 | +4.0 | |
| K.Pitts92% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 16 | -0.5 | |
| D.London98% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 4 | -0.7 |
Defense X.Watts 2 INT, J.Bates 1 INT, L.Floyd 1 sack, R.Orhorhoro 1 sack · Kicking Z.Gonzalez 2/3 FG (long 56)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Rams give up 39 yards a game to running backs (26th), against a league average of 32. Falcons' running backs produce 54 (2nd).
Deep middle is open
Rams are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.60 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Rams
Falcons convert 34% of third downs (30th). Rams allow 38% (10th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Falcons gain 5.5 yards per play (13th). Rams give up 5.3 (14th), with the league at 5.4.
The Rams lead the series 10–8 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 17 | LA 24 at ATL 27 |
| 2022 · Wk 2 | ATL 27 at LA 31 |
| 2019 · Wk 7 | LA 37 at ATL 10 |
| 2017 · Wk 18 · playoffs | ATL 26 at LA 13 |
| 2016 · Wk 14 | ATL 42 at LA 14 |
2025 records
| Rams | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 8–9 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 1–4 |
| Home | 7–1 | 4–4 |
| Away | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WWLLW | LWWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 30.5 – 20.4 | 20.8 – 23.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Rams' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ATL off | Favors ATL · Favors LA | LA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#23 | -0.05#11 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 44%#16 | 43%#12 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#13 | 5.3#14 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#14 | 8%#9 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#20 | -0.05#11 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#5 | 7%#15 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#20 | -0.09#7 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.6#7 | 4.0#11 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 34%#30 | 38%#10 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#10 | 57%#13 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#28 | 159#25 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#11 | 45#7 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.5#14 | 7.5#19 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 54#2 | 39#26 | 32 | |
Falcons: EPA per throw
Rams: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.