2025
Week 17 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Patriots offensevsJets defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 17 for Jets. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 42–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 87%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 10:46, 5 points for the Patriots.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:46NET.D.Maye pass short right to A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.90% → 95%
- 2Q1 13:30NER.Stevenson right guard to NYJ 40 for 4 yards (M.Clemons; M.Moore).88% → 92%
- 3Q1 9:57NYJB.Cook pass short right to A.Mitchell to NYJ 37 for 6 yards (C.Davis).7% → 10%
- 4Q1 10:37NYJB.Hall left guard to NYJ 31 for 2 yards (A.Jennings).5% → 8%
- 5Q1 8:39NED.Maye pass short right to K.Williams to NE 26 for 11 yards (J.Sherwood; B.Stephens).92% → 94%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Maye led the Patriots at +32.9 EPA (19 of 21 for 256). B.Hall led the Jets at +3.9 EPA (14 carries for 111).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye79% | 19/21 | 256 | 5 | 1 | +29.2 | |
| J.Dobbs21% | 3/4 | 30 | -1.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Henderson52% | 19 | 53% | 82 | -1.8 | |
| R.Stevenson48% | 8 | 22% | 47 | 1 | +1.0 |
| D.Johnson12% | 4 | 11% | 5 | -1.7 | |
| D.Maye79% | 3 | 8% | 22 | +3.7 | |
| J.Dobbs21% | 2 | 6% | -1 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Diggs52% | 6 | 24% | 6 | 101 | 1 | +10.9 |
| R.Stevenson48% | 5 | 20% | 5 | 55 | 1 | +4.9 |
| K.Williams85% | 5 | 20% | 3 | 20 | +0.7 | |
| H.Henry65% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 49 | 1 | +5.9 |
| A.Hooper41% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 11 | 1 | +1.3 |
| D.Douglas14% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 10 | +0.6 | |
| E.III62% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 40 | 1 | +4.7 |
Defense J.Hawkins 1 INT, D.Pettus 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 0/1 FG
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Cook100% | 19/33 | 152 | 1 | 1 | -15.2 | |
| A.McNamara | 1/1 | 3 | +2.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall48% | 14 | 50% | 111 | 1 | +4.1 |
| K.Nwangwu18% | 6 | 21% | 31 | +0.3 | |
| I.Davis13% | 3 | 11% | 11 | -3.6 | |
| K.Herbert21% | 2 | 7% | 5 | -0.5 | |
| B.Cook100% | 2 | 7% | 1 | -0.5 | |
| I.Williams69% | 1 | 4% | 5 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Mitchell81% | 9 | 28% | 3 | 22 | -7.6 | |
| I.Williams69% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 30 | -2.2 | |
| S.Smartt26% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 18 | +2.3 | |
| J.III76% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 41 | +2.4 | |
| J.Ruckert61% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 2 | -3.9 | |
| B.Hall48% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 18 | -0.3 | |
| T.Johnson16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -2.4 | |
| K.Herbert21% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| J.Woods35% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | +0.1 | |
| I.Davis13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 9 | -0.9 | |
| M.Moore | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | +2.9 | |
| A.Smith16% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 |
Defense K.Saunders 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 1/1 FG (long 39)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Patriots gain +0.17 EPA per dropback (5th). Jets allow +0.25 (32nd).
Deep right is open
Jets are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.80 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Patriots' run game is 27th in EPA per carry (-0.10). Jets allow -0.02 (21st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Patriots succeed on 46% of plays (7th) against a defense that allows 46% (24th).
The Patriots lead the series 43–14 since 1999. They have won the last 4. Oct 18, 2026, at Gillette Stadium: the Patriots won 26–19. Drake Maye started at quarterback for the Patriots and Geno Smith for the Jets; Mike Vrabel and Aaron Glenn coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | NYJ 19 at NE 26 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | NE 42 at NYJ 10 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | NYJ 14 at NE 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | NYJ 22 at NE 25 |
| 2024 · Wk 3 | NE 3 at NYJ 24 |
2025 records
| Patriots | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 3–14 |
| Division | 5–1 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 1–4 |
| Home | 6–3 | 2–7 |
| Away | 8–0 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 3 | Lost 5 |
| Points a game | 28.8 – 18.8 | 17.6 – 29.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors NYJ | NYJ def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#5 | +0.15#31 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#7 | 46%#24 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#3 | 5.8#23 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#4 | 12%#28 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#5 | +0.25#32 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 5%#29 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.10#27 | -0.02#21 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#16 | 4.4#20 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#13 | 39%#12 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#11 | 68%#32 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#7 | 136#14 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#14 | 54#18 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.4#19 | 7.2#16 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#10 | 35#22 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Jets: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.